What destined, inevitably is going to happen

Dark shadow cast over this island as well as the world. Coincidentally both relate to the world's second largest economy.

Following the recent retaliative import tariff launched from both sides, the tension between the U.S. and China escalated to a new height. It became clearer and clearer that the conflict between the two has nothing to do with the trade imbalance but just the wrestling on the world leadership. It seems Trump has lost his patience on the so-called trade talk when he realized that it is the tactic that China uses to buy time to prepare herself for an even wider scope of confrontation not only confined to the trade aspect.

China's plan is to keep buying agricultural products from the U.S. at one hand letting Trump to get the support he needs from the farmers on the presidential election so that the trade talk can drag on and on. On the other hand, she just slowly depreciates RMB exchange rate and adjust her economy's reliance on the export especially to the U.S. market to undermine the impact on her export arising from the increased tariff.

With the recent release of the trade statistic, China appears to remain intact under the prevailing increased import tariff rates applicable to her export to the U.S. and this is certainly not what Trump is happy to see. There are signs that import tariff hike is just a double-edged sword to the U.S. especially when the second round of tariff hike is set to be effective from September 1 while China seems to continue to use RMB exchange rate as a counter measure. However, tax-led price hike definitely will not only hurt the consumer spending sentiment in the U.S. but also a substantive hit on the coming holiday shopping spree. The diminishing impact to China arising from the import tariff on her export drives Trump resorts to the alternative measure to deal with China.

Yesterday Trump announced the establishment of the new Space Command. In his speech, Trump explicitly said this is a move to counter the threat from China and Russia on the American satellites. Apart from the telecommunication and scientific observation purposes, satellites' main job is for military operation, a more explicit expression, for warfare. This latest move at this critical moment signals that Trump is in the preparation of a war with China as a last resort on the wrestling of world champion. People might take it lightly that it is only an intimidating action but judging from what Trump said and done in the past, he means business, especially this is China's moment of make or break. If she can survive and even be prosperous under the U.S.'s current clamping then China is going to be a real formidable nation which the U.S. can no longer contain. The U.S. could has destroyed the then new born nation with A-bomb to avoid the potential threat when the CCP founded communist China 70 years ago. Will it miss the chance again? Most of all, can it afford to miss again when the threat is no longer potential but imminent?

The world has enjoyed peace for a long time, too long that people almost forget warfare could be just around the corner. People escaped from the Cold War with luck. However, the world is not big enough to accommodate two leaders just like only one alpha male exists in every pride. What destined, inevitably is going to happen.