I have posted two articles about this topic and my view was very clear since the first post that the trade war between the U.S. and China was not really about the trade but the wrestling on the status of No. 1 nation. Not long ago Trump said he may postpone the deadline on the elevation of the tariff on the China imports because the talks between the delegations of the two countries went well. Trump once stood very strongly that no extension would be given but his latest move brought me an extra perspective on this issue.
Allow me to detour the subject for a while. I like movie watching and nowadays movies market is dominated by Hollywood productions which heroic movies is definitely one of the blockbusters. In this category of movie, the story is usually about an imminent crisis or catastrophe which the U.S., if not the whole world, was facing and it could cost tens of thousands or even millions of life should it finally happen. The situation was pressing but seemed no way out and the clock was ticking. Then there came the hero who solved the problem and saved the world. This is the typical formula of Hollywood heroic movies.
I guess Trump is also a heroic movies fan but he not only likes watching but is also very much interested in screenwriting. He knows the Americans is fond of hero so he wrote a movie, the Trade War, in which he is the male lead. In Hollywood movies the U.S. presidents all were portrait as patriots who took the role to protect the nation and the people as their unshirkable duty. In his movie Trump created a crisis out from nothing and then fix it in order to win the applause. It is true there is a huge trade imbalance with China but as long as China keeps using that printed matter which is called Dollar, that they got from the trade surplus, to buy the U.S. government bonds. The trade deficit is only a matter of accounting entry but the fact is that China is financing the U.S. government in the exchange for the room of development. China leaders and all previous U.S. presidents knew what it is all about.
However Trump highlighted the trade imbalance and raised it up to a level that almost became a national crisis. He then directs the play of trade talk and naturally the ending of the story is that he wins the victory and the country is saved. What a national hero! Looking at the way he manipulates the progress of the trade talk I truly believe he is directing his own best movie of the year. Naturally Trump's effort in producing this movie is not just out of fun but for the next term of presidency. He is passionate to serve the country? I can't tell cos I don't know him but he can probably direct a few more "movies" in another four years if he wins the election again. On the other hand just imagine the market sentiment rocks like roller coasters along with the good and bad news that came with the trade talk and it means the market will see many more ups and downs to come if Trump managed to grab another term of presidency, isn't it a great chance for huge profit if there is a genius who can time the market right?
2019年2月24日 星期日
2019年2月18日 星期一
China-isation
It's been quite a while I did not write any post because I was not in a good mood in writing in the past month. Things happened in the recent months were rather depressing. Despite the weather in the past Lunar New Year was exceptional good but the air pressure, I meant political, here in Hong Kong has never been so high.
Among the several major issues casting a very dark shadow on Hong Kong's future, the Shatin Central Link construction scandal is definitely one of them. Apart from the heavily delay and the huge over-budget, the scandal really destroyed the reputation on Hong Kong's integrity which was restored through decades of effort by 2 to 3 generations after the establishment of ICAC in 1974 when prior to its inception, corruption in both public and private sector was a norm. However, unfortunately after the returning to China, moral in this aspect started to erode quickly. In fact Timothy Tong, the ex chef of ICAC, himself was blamed on his misconduct in 2010 as being a civil servant and just narrowly escaped from prosecution. Since then the confidence on ICAC from the general public was largely undermined and perhaps that was the very first case which was brought to light that China-isation on Hong Kong is really happening.
Now back to this Shatin Central Link scandal, despite the culprit is Leighton but in fact the black sheep is MTR, an once renowned corporation not only in its technical know-how but also in its corporate governance for decades. Gone were the the days now that even an once well managed corporation ran into such a management crisis or strictly speaking, a fall on management ethic. It is still unknown who in the company should be held responsible yet and most of all, the root cause of the scandal and the likelihood of any criminal act element. For an once starred corporation to melt down so quickly there must be a change on the company culture which is actually the manifestation of the values and mindset of the top management. With the ever escalating integration with China, values and mindset of Hong Kong business leaders are inevitably compromised. Rigorism and professionalism are something dispensable in nations of rule by will, sadly also a sign of Hong Kong's China-isation.
Another similar case on construction scandal is the HK-Zhuahai-Macau bridge. Quite a number of the quality assurance forms were submitted by the contractor only after months of the opening of the bridge. These forms should have been submitted after the completion of a certain construction job and prior to the commencement of the next step to ensure the quality standard was well met. These forms are for quality assurance mechanism and no further work should has been commenced prior to the inspection and approval on these forms yet the fact is that things went through without them. However, the secretary of the Transport and Housing who should be the watchdog of the infrastructure yet just trying to lighten the case as a late submission only and tried to comfort the general public the quality and safety of the construction were not compromised. An originally policing role now turned into an escort of the malpractice. The reason? The contractor is a China company and most of all, this was the result on the expedition on construction completion meeting the wish of Beijing.
Deng Xiao Ping laid down the arrangement of "one country, two systems" for the returning of HK and set the policy of "no change for 50 years". Naturally no one will believe in naive that changes will happen only after 2047 but now it is just 20+ years after the returning yet Hong Kong is very much alike China now in one way or another. Hong Kong's value to China lies in its difference from China. I think the top boss in Beijing also wants to make HK different from China so that China can capitalize on this difference as a platform to deal with the western world. However, what the top boss cannot stop is the homogenization of HK towards China when people in HK, especially in businesses or government, has more and more interaction with the mainlanders when China economy is in much larger scale and much more influential than is the HK's. Leaders in both private and public sectors in Hong Kong are just too vulnerable when facing the tremendous financial benefits for the former and the pleasing culture towards the higher ranking officials for the latter. China-isation is bound to happen.
China influences are no doubt getting stronger and stronger in Hong Kong. Like it or not, the statement "one country, two systems" has become just a slogan more than ever. The above three cases have a common point, ie., China element. Tong hung around with Chinese officials closely. MTR has a lot of projects in China while the Bridge contractor is a China company. Shouldn't those people advocate and promote integration with China stop and re-think? There is one Chinese wisdom of words, 近朱者赤，近墨者黑 （One will be homogenized with people whom the one hangs around, be they good or bad.). When one day Hong Kong completely integrates with China, is that what Beijing wants and to their best benefits?
Among the several major issues casting a very dark shadow on Hong Kong's future, the Shatin Central Link construction scandal is definitely one of them. Apart from the heavily delay and the huge over-budget, the scandal really destroyed the reputation on Hong Kong's integrity which was restored through decades of effort by 2 to 3 generations after the establishment of ICAC in 1974 when prior to its inception, corruption in both public and private sector was a norm. However, unfortunately after the returning to China, moral in this aspect started to erode quickly. In fact Timothy Tong, the ex chef of ICAC, himself was blamed on his misconduct in 2010 as being a civil servant and just narrowly escaped from prosecution. Since then the confidence on ICAC from the general public was largely undermined and perhaps that was the very first case which was brought to light that China-isation on Hong Kong is really happening.
Now back to this Shatin Central Link scandal, despite the culprit is Leighton but in fact the black sheep is MTR, an once renowned corporation not only in its technical know-how but also in its corporate governance for decades. Gone were the the days now that even an once well managed corporation ran into such a management crisis or strictly speaking, a fall on management ethic. It is still unknown who in the company should be held responsible yet and most of all, the root cause of the scandal and the likelihood of any criminal act element. For an once starred corporation to melt down so quickly there must be a change on the company culture which is actually the manifestation of the values and mindset of the top management. With the ever escalating integration with China, values and mindset of Hong Kong business leaders are inevitably compromised. Rigorism and professionalism are something dispensable in nations of rule by will, sadly also a sign of Hong Kong's China-isation.
Another similar case on construction scandal is the HK-Zhuahai-Macau bridge. Quite a number of the quality assurance forms were submitted by the contractor only after months of the opening of the bridge. These forms should have been submitted after the completion of a certain construction job and prior to the commencement of the next step to ensure the quality standard was well met. These forms are for quality assurance mechanism and no further work should has been commenced prior to the inspection and approval on these forms yet the fact is that things went through without them. However, the secretary of the Transport and Housing who should be the watchdog of the infrastructure yet just trying to lighten the case as a late submission only and tried to comfort the general public the quality and safety of the construction were not compromised. An originally policing role now turned into an escort of the malpractice. The reason? The contractor is a China company and most of all, this was the result on the expedition on construction completion meeting the wish of Beijing.
Deng Xiao Ping laid down the arrangement of "one country, two systems" for the returning of HK and set the policy of "no change for 50 years". Naturally no one will believe in naive that changes will happen only after 2047 but now it is just 20+ years after the returning yet Hong Kong is very much alike China now in one way or another. Hong Kong's value to China lies in its difference from China. I think the top boss in Beijing also wants to make HK different from China so that China can capitalize on this difference as a platform to deal with the western world. However, what the top boss cannot stop is the homogenization of HK towards China when people in HK, especially in businesses or government, has more and more interaction with the mainlanders when China economy is in much larger scale and much more influential than is the HK's. Leaders in both private and public sectors in Hong Kong are just too vulnerable when facing the tremendous financial benefits for the former and the pleasing culture towards the higher ranking officials for the latter. China-isation is bound to happen.
China influences are no doubt getting stronger and stronger in Hong Kong. Like it or not, the statement "one country, two systems" has become just a slogan more than ever. The above three cases have a common point, ie., China element. Tong hung around with Chinese officials closely. MTR has a lot of projects in China while the Bridge contractor is a China company. Shouldn't those people advocate and promote integration with China stop and re-think? There is one Chinese wisdom of words, 近朱者赤，近墨者黑 （One will be homogenized with people whom the one hangs around, be they good or bad.). When one day Hong Kong completely integrates with China, is that what Beijing wants and to their best benefits?
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