Unlock

Everybody here in Hong Kong is talking about the deadlock which Hong Kong is facing now and it seems apart from those cliche urging violent protestors to calm down and stop violence but nothing new. Nor is it really receptive and mostly of all, that works. The deadlock is attributed by the insistence and persistence that the Hong Kong government and its counterpart both think that they are doing the right thing and none of the two sides wants to back off.

What makes the deadlock keeps dragging on is that neither the radical protestors nor the police can make an overwhelming success over their counterpart. Undoubtedly the riot police is better equipped but the violent protestors also have their edge that they are out-numbered the former and their tactics are much more agile and proactive than that of the police who can only be reactive when there is mass gathering and sign of violence. Contrarily, the violent protestors enjoy much greater freedom on where and when to launch their actions, especially with a guerilla tactic.

This is the situation at the front line. At the back office, Carrie Lam's administration is in the underdog position as well because Lam is handicapped in most areas on the handling of the situation. She is not allowed to make concession on things which Beijing sees as a undermining on the sovereignty over Hong Kong or a damage to the central government's authority. Locally she is also pressurized by the police that no independent inquiry commission is acceptable. Therefore basically Lam can do nothing on the five major demands raised by the public. Her persistent non responsiveness just fuels the protest against her. Her inability on concession, however, gives much leeway on her counterpart to launch more attack on her.

While Lam is in underdog but her counterpart also have not made much progress on their agenda neither. Their strategy is to disturb the economy in Hong Kong and to capitalize on business sector's pressure to Lam on the back down. However, they are walking on a very fine line that if they are not successful within a short period of time, as and when the general public is out of patience on the disturbance of traffic and regular livelihood, the support or at least the understanding on their radical actions will lose steam. Public sentiment could change rather quickly.

To unlock the current deadlock, there must be either one side be able to make a breakthrough. Hope on the government is slim because red lines have been drawn by Beijing whom think they are formidable that no concession is necessary nor suitable especially they see this movement is actually a master piece of foreign force that trying to deter China's rise by pulling her leg with Hong Kong issue. Beijing's last masterstroke resorts to the deployment of PLA but this is really a double-edged sword. It is not desirable and preferable for both Beijing and Hong Kong so this is the last resort which Beijing is reluctant to use except absolute necessary.

The government's counterpart is also in a dilemma that their escalating radical actions could possibly create negative feeling against them if things drag on too long but fails to generate big enough pressure from the business sector and the so far majority supporting society. They need stronger and more severe damage on the economy to create the adequate pressure on the government. Likewise, this is also a double-edged sword to the counterpart as well. However, there seems to be more room for them to play around on the strategy than is the government.

To make a breakthrough, the opponents could alter their tactic against the police. Instead of routine radical confrontation or even ever escalating deployment of weapons which just gave the police the justification on their brutal suppression and also possibly generates a violent image which is not quite receptive by the main stream opinion. On the contrary perhaps the protestors can adopt a softer approach and much lower violent yet with much economic disturbing actions as a means for their goal. Except it is more receptive by the public and the beauty is that the protestors can leverage on their agility and flexibility on the location and timing for their actions. Guerilla tactic can drain the police's energy and not fighting back with laser beams, bricks or petrol bombs that will not lead the officers taking it personal as they are not attacked physically and personally.

Lam's administration relies heavily on the deployment of police to counter the protestors actions. A more favourable option to the protestors is probably to rip the police off from the government. The association for the front line officers has once made an open announcement to their management expressing their concern that police force is used on political conflict. Just image wearing a full gear and working longer hours in the hot summer days/nights day in day out without an end, it is believed no officer is happy with that. Naturally they are disciplined force which must be obedient but when the situation drags on and the police officers are getting more and more fatigue. After taking off their uniforms these officers are individuals with independent thinking. They will ask who on earth gives them this ordeal and why the hell they have it. At a time the collective resistant sentiment is high enough then the government just cannot neglect it.

The protestors should not put themselves into confronting role against the police. This will just push the police becoming Lam's administration's ally if both are seen as enemies by protestors. This is certainly not the ideal situation. When Lam's administration loses its only local supporting force while Beijing is reluctant on the deployment of PLA then perhaps it is the time a breakthrough can be seen, hopefully.