Her days are numbered(3)

Following the District Council election in last weekend and the pan-democratic camp's overwhelming success, Hong Kong finally enjoys a few days of calmness so far. The outcome of the polling was out of expectation and also as expected in the sense that the result was actually a big No to the government which was expected, the victory was much better than expectation though.

However, things happened before the election were really nasty. Hong Kong has literally turned into a war zone especially at the Chinese University and Polytechnics University. Days of battle between the riot police and the defenders made Hong Kong "famous" again. The island is an international city and renowned for many things like good food, shopping or fun land of money adventurers ...etc. People around the world at least heard about Hong Kong's name even if he/she knows nothing about it. Thanks to Carrie Lam, the CE of HKSAR com most "successful" disservice salesperson for Hong Kong, that this island is getting more and more well known in the international community but unfortunately against its reputation.

The social unrest, originated from Lam's stupidity and arrogance on the maneuver of the extradition bill proposal. This social movement not only directly led to the total failure of the pro-establishment camp in the district council election but literally rendered Hong Kong as a bargaining chip for Trump in the trade deal negotiation with China. This mistake out-weight all those mistakes made by any of her predecessors. People has been gossiping if Lam can survive till the end of her first term. It seems the CE of HKSAR are cursed so her all three predecessors could not complete their appointments. Therefore people speculate Lam will end up the same as them and people did that for good reason. All the three former CEs have done something different but the common point were extremely unwelcome by the public. Despite the things they did were different but all yielded the massive protests among the public. At the end of the day they all stepped down with different excuses, and apparently under Beijing's idea.

Some may still argue that the state chairman, Xi Jinping, has just openly recognized the work by Lam and her administration recently. It seems Beijing is still supportive to her but people should not forget all the three former CEs also received this kind of recognition from Beijing amid the overwhelming pubic criticism prior to their stepping down. The mess created by Lam now is way bigger than those by her predecessors so her punishment in more or less the same pattern seems to be unavoidable.

For people who know the practice of the sacking of any senior management member understand that unless the one is involved in criminal offense, the replacement will not happen right away despite very serious mistake is committed. Most of the cases it takes time to find the suitable candidate. On the other hand, a smooth transition is sought after for the sake of operation. Indeed finding one who is willing to shoulder the responsibility amid the chaos is extremely difficult, if not possible. If the recent calmness can last finally then it could be somehow easier to find the white knight to take up the challenge.

Everyone here in Hong Kong is longing for the calmness not only for the peaceful livelihood but hoping to see the end of the sinner of the chaos. In fact, it became quite clear, after the polling result, to the sinner's master that they can either put an even stronger suppression on the people's opinion or resort to a policy adjustment fine-tuned to the reality happening here in Hong Kong. Apparently the former is not the option available to Beijing considering the current situation so the sacrifice of a stooge is out of question.

Is it gonna work?(2)

It is more than one month since my last post with the same heading and the answer to the question became quite clear now. Meanwhile today the social unrest just went into a new milestone following the death of an university student who mysteriously fell from height in a car park building during a police-protestors confrontation a week ago. The news of the student's death three days ago triggered a new round of mayhem throughout Hong Kong territory. However, the situation in today turned much sour than it was in the past few days when a police officer shot down a protestor live fire with his pistol and another traffic police officer charged into protestors three times with his motorbike.

Today's shooting is the second incidence following the shooting in last month. Unlike the last shooting that the protestor was engaging in action towards the police officer, the victim in today's shooting just followed and watched about two meters away from the police officer while some other protestors were having bodily contact with that officer. Apparently that officer has burst into loss of control while being confronted and under stress. Compounded with the traffic police's reckless charging with his motorbike, it will unavoidably tear further apart the police force with the public as live round footage went viral in the Internet. The public's condemnation on the police's violence puts Carrie Lam, the so far CE of the HKSAR, into a dilemma. The police force is Lam's sole reliance on the armed force backing but it seems the Force is going to be out of her control.

It seems there is a delicate shift of dominance between Lam's administration and the police force. As and when the social unrest goes more and more furious Lam's administration is getting more and more dependent on the police force to deal with the mayhem. Every seasoned business owner knows that when a particular staff became indispensable that it will be a big headache of office governance. This is the exact situation that Lam is trapped into particularly when Beijing openly expressed it's recognition on the HK police force's work. This puts Lam in a more vulnerable position in term of office politics. It seems both parties are aware of this situation well or at least the front line police officers do so therefore they enjoy much freedom and leeway on the exercising excessive force while Lam is quite cautious and refrained on commenting the situation.

Some people may say the stationed PLA is Lam's last resort so she is not that hindered in under dog. However, the PLA is not under her command so the deployment is solely up to Beijing's decision while the latter has a big concern of the use of PLA on HK soil especially amid the closing negotiation on a deal with the U.S. on the trade talk. On the other hand, Beijing has a much bigger concern on the deployment of PLA at this moment when the police force is under condemnation. The latter may interpret the action is a distrust on them or even a disposal after ordeal. They are in their some thirty thousands and most of all, armed. Their grievance is the least thing Beijing does not want to see.

There is a Chinese saying to describe someone is in a dilemma as the riding on a tiger's back, it is not easy to keep on riding in one hand but dangerous to cast off on the other hand. Where is the tiger? Who is riding?  Hm....