Despite Facebook's popularity is dropping nowadays, especially among the younger generations like teens, it is still the biggest social media platform. Many people clock in wherever and whenever they do something.
Posting photos in FB was once seen as a very "in" thing to do. However, despite I also have a FB account but I have never done that. In my first post in this blog I have made it very clear that I do not want to leave any trace of my personal particular in the Internet. It is not difficult to understand why I have never put any photo in my FB account. In fact, the only purpose setting an account in FB was to re-connect with those long lost acquaintance if they happen to find my account. Indeed that is the very first objective that Zuckerberg found FB.
Don't know since when FB became what it is now. It turned into a marketing platform more than is a social media. Not only there are corporate accounts but even many of the individual accounts are catered for marketing on the account holders themselves or the merchandises behind them. So not only I am not active in checking my account nor do I care what happened on the other accounts. I am not a fan of FB at all.
The other reason I don't like FB is because FB has gradually became a greedy company which exploits the big data it has. The big data that has been developing by the mass account holders whom posting text or images in their own accounts. These posts and images form a gold mine because it is exactly the big data that is most sought after nowadays. FB naturally taps on this gold mine and exploits most of out it. However, actually these posts and images are the properties of all the account holders. FB does not own them but it is making huge profit from manipulating the big data deriving from these posts and images. So when people think they are using FB but do they really think who is using who?
I remember someone has once said the best business model is the one with light asset, no inventory and no own production because that means no need to lock up capital on the investment on the assets, no need to worry about the depreciation on inventory and no need to worry about the production capacity. FB just provide a platform for its account holders to post the content which FB is not producing nor is there any inventory that FB needs to hold so FB is exactly this type of business model so despite it is not a good place for me but perhaps it could be a good investment.
2018年3月29日 星期四
2018年3月19日 星期一
The way I see Bitcoin
Along with the Bitcoin price fluctuation, recently there are increasing noises about this controversial financial product. Many bloggers have made comment on Bitcoin and they mostly focused on whether Bitcoin is a bubble or whether there is any value of investing on it. Most bloggers analyzed Bitcoin on it functionality against the legal tenders like the trading function, value storage function ...etc. However, they all overlooked or neglected one fundamental that why on earth crytocurrencies exist in the world. None of them talked about this very underlying element.
While bloggers commented the nature and future of the Bitcoin, many other readers raised their opinion about it. Some said Bitcoin attributed to the waste of electricity and even deteriorating climate due to globe warming resulting from the power consumption spent on Bitcoin mining. Their comment are all partly reasoned. Nonetheless, a view from another angle perhaps can enable us to see this topic better.
Every economic activity exists for a reason. Only when it meets a need then it can last or even thrives. No rational one will ever engage his valuable resources in mining Bitcoin if there is no market need. So what is this market need indeed?
To answer this question, we can find the clue on the centre point of the Bitcoin, ie., it is a product of block chain technology which has a decentralization characteristic. There is no centralized clearing house of each Bitcoin transaction. That is the beauty of Bitcoin, at least to some groups of people, because transactions are not monitored by the governments around the world. Who likes this most? Of course the underground economy like terrorists, drug traffickers, smuggling syndicates ...etc. Prior to the age of Bitcoin, they have to launder their profit by money-laundering which is troublesome and risky. Now life is much easier for those groups at lease in realizing the profit from underground economy to the surfaced one.
So Bitcoin is a lubricant to the crime? Well perhaps criminals are the groups that can capitalize on the beauty of Bitcoin most but they are not the only beneficiaries. Any individual whom has the need to transmit money across borders is one of the examples. In fact what crime money is indeed is a controversy per se. Firearm trade in Hong Kong is of course a crime but it is legal in the America. Casino is forbidden in Hong Kong but they thrive in Macau. There is too much grey area between crime money and its counterpart. After all, Bitcoin is only a intermedia just like a knife is a productive tool to a butcher but a deadly weapon to a psycho.
Some said Bitcoin is a bubble which will vanish just like the tulip bubble did. Well, as long as it keeps meeting the need of some interested groups, I don't see it will die out. Yet whether one should join the bandwagon, it is totally one's assessment. No doubt there is a quite obvious tendency of price manipulation because the Bitcoin holding concentrates in the hands of a few players whom can drive the price in either direction. What makes it even complicated is that the Wall Street is stepping in this once alienated financial product by operating futures for Bitcoin. Higher volatility in the future is unavoidable and the price call will gradually shift from the existing big players to the Wall Street. When Wall Street tasted the blood of Bitcoin then it is unlikely that it will let Bitcoin dies out.
While bloggers commented the nature and future of the Bitcoin, many other readers raised their opinion about it. Some said Bitcoin attributed to the waste of electricity and even deteriorating climate due to globe warming resulting from the power consumption spent on Bitcoin mining. Their comment are all partly reasoned. Nonetheless, a view from another angle perhaps can enable us to see this topic better.
Every economic activity exists for a reason. Only when it meets a need then it can last or even thrives. No rational one will ever engage his valuable resources in mining Bitcoin if there is no market need. So what is this market need indeed?
To answer this question, we can find the clue on the centre point of the Bitcoin, ie., it is a product of block chain technology which has a decentralization characteristic. There is no centralized clearing house of each Bitcoin transaction. That is the beauty of Bitcoin, at least to some groups of people, because transactions are not monitored by the governments around the world. Who likes this most? Of course the underground economy like terrorists, drug traffickers, smuggling syndicates ...etc. Prior to the age of Bitcoin, they have to launder their profit by money-laundering which is troublesome and risky. Now life is much easier for those groups at lease in realizing the profit from underground economy to the surfaced one.
So Bitcoin is a lubricant to the crime? Well perhaps criminals are the groups that can capitalize on the beauty of Bitcoin most but they are not the only beneficiaries. Any individual whom has the need to transmit money across borders is one of the examples. In fact what crime money is indeed is a controversy per se. Firearm trade in Hong Kong is of course a crime but it is legal in the America. Casino is forbidden in Hong Kong but they thrive in Macau. There is too much grey area between crime money and its counterpart. After all, Bitcoin is only a intermedia just like a knife is a productive tool to a butcher but a deadly weapon to a psycho.
Some said Bitcoin is a bubble which will vanish just like the tulip bubble did. Well, as long as it keeps meeting the need of some interested groups, I don't see it will die out. Yet whether one should join the bandwagon, it is totally one's assessment. No doubt there is a quite obvious tendency of price manipulation because the Bitcoin holding concentrates in the hands of a few players whom can drive the price in either direction. What makes it even complicated is that the Wall Street is stepping in this once alienated financial product by operating futures for Bitcoin. Higher volatility in the future is unavoidable and the price call will gradually shift from the existing big players to the Wall Street. When Wall Street tasted the blood of Bitcoin then it is unlikely that it will let Bitcoin dies out.
2018年3月14日 星期三
Is there on earh a guaranteed winning way in investing?
In the high time of market trend, there are many ads about tuition on investing in all kinds media. All of them are saying they have a winning strategy and as long as you pay to learn then you will be benefited. I have never attended such courses. I am not sure whether the tutors really have a winning strategy but if I have one then I won't bother to organize courses. Superman Li never did that as far as I know. Nor did Buffet.
However, I do agree that there is a for sure winning way in investing. Am I self contradictory? Not really. Any one knows statistics must has heard about probability. As long as you can construct a trading system that has a success rate over 50% and you have a strategy to win at a reward rate higher than 2 times of the bet placed, over the long run you are bound to win. This is a guaranteed winning way. If you think such thing never exists in the world then you are damn wrong. In fact, it is never far away from us. All casinos know what it is about. It is the for sure winning system that makes casinos never lose in the long run. So to punters, gambling is a trial of luck but to casinos, gambling is a business, a business that never lose except the loss arising from poor business operation but never from hosting gambling table.
When there is really an ever winning way in the world then we, being investors, must learn how this winning way can benefit us. Many investors are keen in learning different kinds of investing philosophies like value investing, trend investing...and seriously study the methods of fundamental analysis and/or technical analysis in the hope that they can master something to beat the market. I do agree that those skills are important and useful. However, without an guaranteed winning system, most if not all, wins in the investing are kind of chance but not guaranteed.
Don't know who once said that investing falls somewhere in the spectrum between arts and science. I further refine the saying that the analysis part of investing is arts while the execution part is purely science. For example, the way to evaluate the value of a company is really an art although there are analysis methods seems scientific yet there are many subjective assumptions when doing the evaluation. Even the technical analysis has a lot of subjective assessment, like the way how to count the waves. However, when it comes to the execution part which means the trading system. It purely rests on the statistical reasoning. As what I put it in the earlier paragraph, as long as the trading system has a proven 50%+ winning probability and a return rate of 2 times or more, profit is guaranteed in the long run of investing. What we need to do is to construct a trading strategy that meets these two criteria and back test it with historical database.
So to me, winning in investing is all about a reliable trading system.You may say such system is too good to have one and wonder its existence. Yet I have it. Hope you can also build yours.
However, I do agree that there is a for sure winning way in investing. Am I self contradictory? Not really. Any one knows statistics must has heard about probability. As long as you can construct a trading system that has a success rate over 50% and you have a strategy to win at a reward rate higher than 2 times of the bet placed, over the long run you are bound to win. This is a guaranteed winning way. If you think such thing never exists in the world then you are damn wrong. In fact, it is never far away from us. All casinos know what it is about. It is the for sure winning system that makes casinos never lose in the long run. So to punters, gambling is a trial of luck but to casinos, gambling is a business, a business that never lose except the loss arising from poor business operation but never from hosting gambling table.
When there is really an ever winning way in the world then we, being investors, must learn how this winning way can benefit us. Many investors are keen in learning different kinds of investing philosophies like value investing, trend investing...and seriously study the methods of fundamental analysis and/or technical analysis in the hope that they can master something to beat the market. I do agree that those skills are important and useful. However, without an guaranteed winning system, most if not all, wins in the investing are kind of chance but not guaranteed.
Don't know who once said that investing falls somewhere in the spectrum between arts and science. I further refine the saying that the analysis part of investing is arts while the execution part is purely science. For example, the way to evaluate the value of a company is really an art although there are analysis methods seems scientific yet there are many subjective assumptions when doing the evaluation. Even the technical analysis has a lot of subjective assessment, like the way how to count the waves. However, when it comes to the execution part which means the trading system. It purely rests on the statistical reasoning. As what I put it in the earlier paragraph, as long as the trading system has a proven 50%+ winning probability and a return rate of 2 times or more, profit is guaranteed in the long run of investing. What we need to do is to construct a trading strategy that meets these two criteria and back test it with historical database.
So to me, winning in investing is all about a reliable trading system.You may say such system is too good to have one and wonder its existence. Yet I have it. Hope you can also build yours.
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