The haves and the don'ts

There are terms to describe the babies born in different range of years like generation X, generation Y and Z. The generation X, following the baby boomer, which was roughly born between 1965 and 1979 while generation Y is between 1980-1994. Generation Z is 1995-2010. The range of years for different generations are not strictly defined though but more or less like an icon of their key straits reflecting that particular era.

Depending on where the babies were born, generation X in the developed countries like the U.S., Japan and Western Europe should be the luckiest group because they enjoyed the sweet from the rapid economic growth after the WWII. While generation Y in the Asian countries like Hong Kong,  Singapore, Taiwan and Korea also shared the enormous growth in the region during their generation period. These four places have once named the four little dragons in Asia. But when it comes to the generation Z it seems the whole generation across the world has lost in somewhere particularly for those whom are approaching towards their adulthood now and they are facing many constraints which were not experienced by their elder generations.

It seems there is a line dividing between the good times and the bad and the line seems to rest in 2008 and this is when the last few batches of generation Z was born. To any economic animals year 2008 is definitely a year not to be forgotten. This was when the U.S. subprime mortgage boom bust and the world finance since then has entered into the uncharted area of QE era. QE literally changed the whole landscape in the financial world which was flooded with hot money. To be more precise, hot money did not flood the real economy but the financial market only therefore inflation on necessities remains low while the prices of financial assets skyrocketed.

One of the phenomenon of financial assets boom is the surge on property price. Hong Kong residential property price shot up more than 2 folds as measured by the Centa-City Leading Index since 2008 and in fact Hong Kong is not alone. Property price in major cities in Canada, Australia, UK have gone up significantly despite of the recent correction. It was the same even for the eye of the storm of subprime mortgage, the U.S., its property price rose again since 2012. The bouyant property price brings huge financial pressure to the home buyers.

On the other hand, stock market across the board has shot up since 2008 when low cost money flooded the markets. One thing remains stagnant though, ie., the salary level, especially among the fresh grads. The phenomenon is attributed to the universal of education which pumped out too many U-grads that scarcity was the word of the past. Governed by the law of supply and demand, the salary growth rate for these U-grads in the past decade was minimal across the board except for a few most sought after sectors like fintech. Despite the overall inflation was not high in the past decade but since the starting salary for U-grads was already not high as comparing to their seniors, compounded with the slow pay rise, generation Z experienced a very difficult time on capital accumulation. Let alone the enjoy first thinking is quite popular among this generation so the habit of regular savings is something they rarely think of. What's worse is that some were already in debts because of student loan on tuition fee even before they could make money.

As depicted by the idea of four quadrants that put forward by Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the series of Rich Dad Poor Dad, wage-earners are the most miserable category. In nowadays's view, generation Z wage-earners undoubtedly can claim the top of the list. Naturally being able to be financial free is the dream of many wage-earners so influenced by Kiyosaki's advocate, many wage-earners resort to investing. The crucial elements in investing are capital and time, supplemented by growth rate. That is also Buffet's idea on value investing that finding a stock with good growth and put in capital then let the compound effect to maximize the benefit.

The point is that investment starts with capital first which is what generation Z is lack of.  However, low cost money jacks up the price of almost all financial assets, stock, property, bonds. Making the entry level of investing high enough that generation Z is dwarfed. On the other hand, as generation Z is approaching to their stage of marriage or parenthood, the need of a dwelling is imminent. When investing can be seen as a luxury but a dwelling for a couple is something of necessity. However, the property price or the corresponding rental level are something they are shy of. They are desperate to invest trying to getting out of the vicious cycle of wage slave but are handicapped by the limited capital and the unaffordable entry level. On the other hand, those existing investors, mostly older than the generation Z, are just riding on the tide of assets buoyant.

Some may argue that this is the best time for start-ups as Internet just revolutionized the landscape of running a business and gaping the distance between entrepreneurs and investors. It is true that starting a business has never been easier than ever. However, entrepreneurship is not something unique in this era. People did that since thousand of years ago and for those who will then they naturally will but for those less adventurous they will just not to. After all, running a business is not the cup of tea for all people nor all young people are capable to. Meanwhile, for those who are not tech savvy, it seems start-up is just something unrelated. The fact is that even nowadays the majority of the young people are still in the employment market.

The low interest rate era just torn the world into two, ie., the haves and the don't haves. The haves will continue to enjoy the assets appreciation and growing wealth while the don't haves just keep suffering from the consequences of soaring assets price. This is the scenario particularly the generation Z, the don't haves, is facing.

This is a miserable generation.


**(Matthew 25:29,  For whoever has will be given more, and they will have an abundance. Whoever does not have, even what they have will be taken from them.)

Monsieur, you would like to go for a duck soup? How about a lame duck

Naturally lame duck is not really the name of a dish but a famous phrase brought up by the late China official responsible for Hong Kong handover, Lu Ping. This was what he cursed on the pre-handover Hong Kong government when the then governor Patten who advocated the electoral reform. The long forgotten term lame duck government came back to live when our "loving" mama, Lam, faces the greatest set back in her life. So is the governance of the SAR government when the same curse makes its second visit.

Following her predecessor C.Y's rout, Lam was appointed in the hope to rebuild a healthy dialogue among the severely torn society with her feminine gentleness. Despite Lam was once labeled as C.Y. 2.0 yet she once did create a honey moon with the opposition camp lawmakers. The hostility among the blue and yellow camp has once calmed down to a certain extent. However, gone were those days when the society had a chance to lick its wound resulting from the political divergence since the emergence of the extradition bill.

Only after Lam's last Saturday announcement on the de facto withdrawal of the Bill, Beijing and the locally China Liaison Office released some routine supportive statements. Pro establishment lawmakers also emerged for speeches as well. Apparently a tone was finalized by the CCP therefore propaganda in all forms started to kick in.

Lam's official description on the handling is suspension but not withdrawal. Of course it will be a secret for good to the public on whether it is Lam's or Beijing's idea on such move. No matter whose, however, this is apparently a bad decision. That failed to act as a clean cut off on the core concern by the public. As expected, the demonstration in the following Sunday still drew hundreds of thousands, if not million, participants. The suspension not only failed to bring the ease on the pressure to the government but otherwise. On the other hand, Lam's apology via the government's announcement is also a stupid action. The apology is criticized as lack of sincerity so is rejected by the public.

In the game of politic, if one's action is not out from autonomy but forced to, this puts him/her in the underdog position. Lam was forced to suspend the bill and to make the apology. This is already a total loss of her alpha image in the past. As and when the pressure on withdrawal of the bill and her personal appearance on apology mounts and Lam is pressurized to follow, her leadership will just go totally bankrupt. Lam will be literally a sunset chief executive and a lame duck government is not far away then.

Chef, a lame duck in hot soup, please.

Her days are numbered (2)

As there is no Legco meetings in these days so the tension in our society is relaxed quite a lot, at least no confrontation between the police and protesters now. Perhaps some casual topics can bring a few doses of relaxation for the once tensed nerve.

Some people may puzzle why Carrie Lam, the C.E., ends up in such a flounder. Naturally despite her repeated reiteration that it was her idea to activate the proposal of the extradition bill, no one has a second thought that it is not a political assignment. So her big mistake is not why she did it but how she maneuvers the process. And the biggest mistake, among all, perhaps is the choice on the other two team members of the trio task force. There is a popular saying that a piggy teammate is a harm more than help. First of all, I think people just has a deeply rooted bias on pigs which are actually not that stupid. Likewise, the two piggy teammates that Lam picked are not low in intellectual indeed. Say, piggy teammate number one, Teresa Cheng the secretary of justice, as an example. What makes her piggy is exactly because she thinks she is highly intelligent.

Before I go too far away, let's get back to the original topic that Lam's biggest mistake that led her sitting in this flounder is her choice on the members of her trio task force, ie., Teresa Cheng and John Lee, the chief of Security Bureau. More precisely speaking, in the first place Lam's choice on Teresa Cheng as the secretary of justice is already a deadly mistake. Integrity scandals has never stopped spinning around this lady since her appointment. For secretary of justice, a position which personal integrity is of utmost importance, the candidate choice should be a flawless, if not perfect, person at least appears to be. In fact it is proven that Cheng became Lam's burden rather than a boost soon after Cheng started her work. Critiques and doubts on her integrity have always undermined her credibility thus leading to the hindrance to the progress on the government's agenda.

So when it came to the time for the promotion of this extradition bill, Cheng, being the secretary of justice, should naturally be playing an important role in explaining the rationale and most of all, selling this idea to the public. Unfortunately her low credibility is a deadly hindrance on this task. On the other hand, her arrogance during her speeches in different occasions not only failed to get the message across but just a disservice. The public did not receive the intended message but just got the feeling from her facial expression that Cheng's subtext was saying hey, you guys know nothing about law, fxxx off, will you?

While piggy teammate Cheng behaved too aggressive but another piggy teammate, John Lee, just did the opposite. His always sleepy face and the monotone on speeches just projected an image that he is reluctant on this job or disagrees on the idea that he is selling. The most extreme example is that in the occasion when being questioned in the Legco meeting that whether he really believes there is fair trial in China, Lee refused and avoided to give a clear answer but just responded that fair trial is written in China's law. His response gave away that even himself does not genuinely believe in what he is promoting. This is the classic example of piggy teammate is harmful more than helpful.

Lam's piggy teammates are doing the disservice but then how about her master? Beijing's respond on this recent social unrest is quite bizarre and is unlike the past incidents like the movement of Occupy Central, disqualification on opposition camp lawmakers and the 2016 Mongkok commotion. So far there was only one mild supportive announcement from the central government. Unlike those past firm and definite statements showing explicit support on what were done by the HKSAR government, on the contrary the China embassy in London, during an interview, even said Beijing did not at all instruct Lam to do that. Apparently in this case Beijing is keeping a quite clear distance from Lam. Likewise, the pro-establishment law makers' unusual silence since last Sunday indicates a clear sign that Lam has been abandoned, both locally or by Beijing.

Carrie, you are a dead man now.

Her days are numbered

Emotion changes rapidly. What is happening in Central now is a good example. But is it really without any clue? Opposition sentiment mounted after the mega protest ever in Hong Kong's history in the past Sunday. Yet the HKSAR chief executive, Carrie Lam, still stood firm saying the second reading of the Extradition Bill remains to be examined in Legco in today without any re-consideration on amendment or whatsoever. That sparkled the public's anger which spreads just like hill fire on a dry savanna. Proposals of all kinds like strikes and besieging the Legco building popped up shortly after Lam's announcement.

Frankly speaking, I feel pity on Lam because despite her firm stance on the issue but I don't think, nor do the majority, that it is really her own idea to wrap this bill up in an extraordinary pace. While Lam thinks herself and perhaps her team are smart but the public is not dumb neither. We all know what this Bill is all about despite Lam repeatedly said people does not really understand and even are misled. But folks, be pragmatic, what do you want her to say, being a stooge? Lam, in different occasions, reiterated that getting the Bill done is not a political mission at all but just about the justice on the Taiwan murder case. This saying is the activation of the proposal of this Bill but despite of different workable ways to get around this Bill were suggested by some knowledgeable experts yet were all turned down. Lam now stands in a dilemma that she just neither cannot withdraw from her initial advocate nor can she admit that the Bill is indeed a political mission.

Please, give me a way out, will you? Perhaps this is what Lam is crying out loud inside her mind. But don't worry, madam, your ordeal will soon be over. When Lam, at the beginning stage, stressed that it is hers and her administration's own idea to raise this issue up but not an assigned task, I thought it was really a clumsy excuse saying so because this is something an insult to people's wisdom. But now I realize that indeed this is a "smart" move. Sorry but not for Lam but for Beijing only. The reason is that Lam literally acts as a firewall between the central government and this incident. Imagine when things here in Hong Kong get further ugly, it is totally Lam's fault because it is her who brought the whole thing up. When all anger fires at her then her stepping down could be an exit of the incident. Let's say if the Bill is passed then Beijing gets what it wants and if Lam gets her finger burnt, Beijing can stay at distance with her and at most to lose a stooge only and that what stooges are for. Take a look of uncle Tung's leg ache, C.Y.'s sudden knowledge about the need on him from his family and Tsang's imprisonment then you will know that disposable is the name of the game. Her fate was sealed in day one of her appointment.

Sorry, stooge, it is your time.

How many decades one can see throughout his life?

The title of this post was an once very popular lines in an Hong Kong production TV drama. Ten years is indeed a long period of time, 120 months or about 480 weeks. Then how about 30 years? For 30 years people has been waiting. Waiting for the voice of conscience, if there is, from an administration on what has happened 30 years ago. Yet, in vain, sadly.

How many 30 years can one see throughout his life then? Three, at most, for most people. 30 years is a very long period of time so some people has changed their stance, because of interests or tiredness. Some said life must go on so one should not bathe in the sorrow. Some others said had there been no crack down then the country could has fallen into pieces cos things were losing control. They may be right but it was about hundreds of life. Hundreds of young life that were passionate on their country yet were ended in a brutal way by the regime that runs the country. Isn't it a tragical irony?

It is still a taboo at there even after 30 years. Let alone not just a single word of confession from the authority. There were once a naive wishful thinking that as time went by and hopefully they would improve so there would be the day of vindication but the reality is that it just went the other round. It is because they know clearly the root cause of that movement is still there. The trigger was anti-corruption but thing is getting even worse 30 years later. This provides no ground for them to retreat because it could possibly rock the legitimacy of their ruling. In a place where state leaders are inevitably wise and brilliant so impossible to be wrong, then the culprit can only be those whom against the formers.

In the quality management discipline, there is a theory saying that for any faulty quality issue to be corrected. The so-called root cause, ie., the fundamental reason, must first be identified thus a corresponding so-called corrective action, ie., the solution, can be incorporated to address the quality issue which hopefully is then resolved. If the social movement happened 30 years ago is seen as a glitch along the path of China's progress towards a sophisticated country, it was something bound to happen and not really a big deal relative to the major direction of development. The regime could has handled it in a more humane way. In the worst scenario that even if the movement was still ended in a brutal way, a sincere repent and a faithful corrective action should be able to earn the forgiveness internally and abroad.  Unfortunately the regime not only is reluctant to recognize it was their fault on the loss of those precious life but also did every effort to cover up what has happened. Suppression one over another were used to clamp the people's anger and desperate arising from the series of suppression. The regime has missed the critical timing of repent and did the opposite of the right things. It literally is pushing herself in the path of no return and towards a dead end.

The situation is a bit bizarre now because the regime is facing a dilemma that people might not easily forgive its loads of wrong-doings even if it is willing to confess now but if it goes further along the existing way of suppression. It is literally building a time bomb of its own and it is ticking.

The regime is buying time now hoping people's memory will fade out and waiting for a miracle. But will there be one?




**This post is dedicated to those people who made tremendous sacrifice on the day of May 35 in 1989 which exists only in China's official calendar.