Apart from the novel coronavirus pandemic, the most popular talking point around the world now must be the conflict between the U.S. and China. With the U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo's recent speech in July at Nixon Library, a symbolic place for the memory of Richard Nixon whom started a historical relationship with China, that he explicitly declared that such a relationship was proven to be a failure. A failure which Nixon, or the U.S. be more specifically, wanted to have China to be transformed into a member of the world that shares the western value through the economic integration with the West.
At such a symbolic place that carries significant meaning between the two countries, Pompeo's such speech was no difference from a declaration that now the U.S. not only no longer sees China as a working partner but perceives the latter as a rivalry, if not enemy yet. Despite everybody knows, when the U.S. started the trade war with China back two years ago, that the honey moon between the two nations has long finished. Yet, people might still thought that Uncle Sam was just not happy with the teen rebellion behaviour that his growing up little brother is showing. Some guessed that the U.S. might just wanted to teach China a lesson to behave but did not mean business. Now they realize that all those things were just a prelude. A prelude of a full range of combating including economic, technical, diplomatic, financial and perhaps even military actions despite China is not yet fully well prepared for that at this moment.
Some commentators termed the theme of the relationship between the two nations has transformed from decoupling to disconnection. Decoupling is just about the cessation on cooperation on some aspects while disconnection means a clear cut on all relationships. The undertone is the preparation on a true war at the end of the day. Apparently even though China is eagerly to challenge the world order that was established by the U.S. after the WWII but she is not up yet for a true war with the U.S. and that is why the China ambassador in the U.S., Cui TianKai, was trying to tone down the tension between the two nations saying "both nations have to work harder to overcome the current difficulties, to try to
dispel suspicion, doubts or even fear," he said. "We have to build a
constructive and mutually beneficial relationship for the future." amid the U.S.'s continuous breakage on such relationship in all ways like the force-closure of the Houston China Embassy, force-selling on the Chinese origin social media app Tik-Tok...etc which are quite humiliating and aggressive toward the Communist regime.
Perhaps this is the moment the top boss in Beijing regrets the too high profile announcement on the advocacy of the Belt and Road as well as the Rise of Big Nation back a few years ago. Such move awakened the U.S.'s suspicion on China's ambition to challenge the world order established by the former whom will not let it happen by at all means even if resorting to a true war. When people sees the conflict is the fight on the interests between the two nations but indeed it is much more than that.
What the two nations is wrestling on is about the say of the world order. The order that dominates how the world should go and how the global interests should be allocated among nations. Because there is so much in stake, indeed it is not just the confrontation between the U.S. and China. Under the existing world order the beneficiaries are not only limited to the U.S. but its "ally nations" or strictly speaking the countries that can share the benefits under the pecking order in the existing world order. These countries are mainly the western developed countries and a few Asian countries like Japan and South Korea under the U.S. umbrella. It is this common interests that brings them together and formed alliances against any challenger to the existing world order. The typical example of these alliances is the Five Eyes which was originally meant to share intelligence but more and more it is going to be a form of power to strike any prospective challenger to the existing world order. This is the reason why the Japan is going to join the Five Eyes apart from the Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and of course the U.S.
It could be this kind of coalition map that China softens it tone as much as it can, despite of amid the current humiliation which is not lighter than the invasion of the Eight Nations Alliance in the late Qing Dynasty back in 1900. China knows that once there will be a war, she is not going to fight with the U.S. only but all these beneficiary nations under the existing world order. China also realizes that despite she looks strong in economic aspect comparing to its western counterparts but she is no match at all in all round strength especially in the aspect of military power. Therefore China can't help but just swallow these humiliations to buy time to better prepare herself for this war.
While in her preparation within her own soil, China is going to form the coalition of her own to counter the western alliance as well. Naturally those die-hard U.S. opponents like the Russia and North Korea are best candidates. On the other hand, there are not shortage of opportunistic countries who will take side when the bait is large enough. China is doing this well to provide financial aids to these countries which are mostly those third world ones.
Prior to the War and when the full disconnection is in place, the existing global trading could largely be compromised. Most world cooperation organizations will be split. People interaction between the rivalries is prohibited. Things happened in the Cold War in the 60-70s' might resurge. The whole world will be divided into two blocs. By then, the world will enter into the stage of a world of two worlds.
