Novel coronavirus mass screening test

Disclaimers: Hong Kong resident visitors are advised to read this Declaration prior to further reading of this post. Continuous browsing means the visitor's confirmation of his/her compliance to the Declaration.

=======================================================================

There is a heated debate recently in this little island and it even has the HKSAR chief executive, Carrie Lam, involved into it. She accused the ones whom object the mass screening test on the novel coronavirus have hidden agenda and trying to damage the relationship between the China central government and Hong Kong. Naturally only the persons who do that know whether the accusation is valid but it is not of my concern about it. What I care is whether such mass screening test can do its intended job thus whether the Hong Kong citizens should take part into it and bear the risks associated. A typical benefit vs cost analysis apart from political consideration.

The details of the screening test exercise is yet released by the government but according to the heads up, about 100 sampling spots will be set up in all 18 districts throughout Hong Kong. These sampling spots are mostly community facilities and manned with 3000+ personnel for the samples taking. The participation on the test is voluntary based with online booking for testing. Sampling is swabbing both in nose and at throat.

The controversy lies mostly this is a voluntary exercise meaning it is just all up to each citizen's decision whether to be tested or not. This is just contrary to the intended purpose of the exercise which is expected to break the community infection by detecting and screening out those asymptomatic carriers whom spread the virus unknowingly putting the infection never ends.

First of all, when this is not a compulsory testing then it literally fails to achieve its goal especially when the participation is low. Medical experts said it must has at least 5 millions people take part the exercise then it is meaningful. I am not sure how this figure is arrived at but personally I think when the purpose is to find out those asymptomatic carriers to stop their spreading to the community then even if a handful of them are missed out if they are not tested then the whole exercise just goes in vain.

Secondly when the exercise is voluntary then people can roughly estimate how likely of  those asymptomatic carriers are motivated to be tested when most of them think they are in good condition. Common sense tells us that the most motivated participants are those work or live in high risk premises or those whom already have mild symptoms yet not verified. Naturally it is good to screen this segment of people but this is just not enough especially it is those asymptomatic carriers whom pose the major threat of the unidentified source of infection. In reality even if there is only one such carrier living in the community then the infection will just never end and most of all, most likely it will be untraceable due to unidentified source.

Furthermore the exercise can at large be seen as a snapshot of the status when the individual is being tested when people remains mobile after the testing. They could be healthy at the moment of testing but be infected in the following day. As long as people can move around after the testing then they are under the risk of being infected at any time. That renders the exercise can act only as a snapshot rather than an effective screening.


A meaningful screening works only when it is 100% compulsory and combined with strict stay home order during the entire period of testing campaign. Apparently this exercise will only become a PR show that promotes how the China central government cares Hong Kong people and how generous it is to financially sponsor the campaign.

While as a whole the exercise is bound to be a failure to its intended purpose yet it is not totally useless for individuals at least a snapshot at the moment of testing is achievable. Having said, it does not come without drawbacks. Naturally the biggest concern is the gathering at the sampling venue where risk is quite high because as explained previously that those show up at the venue are most likely whom having high risk. In fact ironically the more successful of the campaign is then high numbers of more high risk participants will be drawn to the sampling venues. This is also in contrary to the government's appeal on the social distancing. The exercise could do more bad than good indeed.

On the other hand, the qualification and experience of these 3000 personnel are at question. The government once said even the medical students will also be recruited. The process of the sampling in the nose poses certain risk which can bring injury if conducted by inexperienced personnel. The exercise will be rolled out starting from September 1 when is a few days later. It is a reasonable worry that whether those medical students are adequately trained by then.

Anyway without the prejudice on political stance, it is all up to each individual's evaluation on their own benefit and risk on the decision. Good luck!

Probably the greatest discovery ever

I have to admit that I have not been a fan of mathematics since my school days. The scores on this subject were low and sometimes fell below the pass grade. I particularly had problem with the abstract calculation on advanced mathematics like algebra and calculus which after tons of brain work yet the answers are still x, y or z which fails to correlate nothing in the real world. Having said that, it does not mean I do not like mathematics though. What I need is to relate the calculation with somethings, better be tangible, that I know after hardworking then I shall get the answers that can be visualized.

I forgot the name of the man whom once said investing does not need a great mathematician. Anyone with basic understanding of simple addition, subtraction and a little multiplication will do well. I do agree with such saying because a Maths idiot like me have never come across any problem in the calculation of my investments. Unless for those who work in the Quant Investing or Algo Trading need advanced mathematical knowledge as well as programming skills, common folks with basic understanding on Maths do not need to be shied away from investing.

Having said, an extra knowledge on top of the basic mathematical calculation does help on a better informed investing decision. This knowledge is not rocket science though. Actually many of us have learned it in our college studying because Statistics is the backbone of many sciences so all graduates must have studied it no matter what subject they are major in. Despite I did have some difficult time during my study in Statistics but I did find that it is interesting because most of the issues that Stat is trying to solve are not abstract idea. In fact many terms that we come across daily are the result of statistics like average minimum wage, households income, queuing time, life expectancy...etc. They are all intimate to our daily life but not just x, y or z.

Among all knowledge within statistics, I think the concept of Probability is the most valuable piece of discovery that mankind has made ever, at least to all investors. In English, probability is about the chance of the happening or not happening in percentage or in decimal point. This is the reason I said Probability is the greatest discovery ever. In most cases, all things on earth will end up to the fact at the extreme polarity of probability of 0 or 1 where in between lies a range of ambiguity and this is the fun part of the world, ie., how likely the result will be. Excuse me for a juicy analogy that someone once said the sexiest woman is not a nude but the one with partially revealing.

In investing world, probability also plays a very important role. We all want to know what direction the Dollar is going to go say by the end of this year, the result is very simple either goes up or down but how likely it is up vs down? This is a billion dollars question and it is all about probability. Likewise, what the chance is that a particular company's debt will be defaulted is of most concern of its bond investors. For option traders, it has nothing more important than the probability of their positions will go into ITM or stay OTM no matter they are Longs or Shorts at the settlement day.

In my previous posts I wrote quite a lot relating to the importance of probability to trading is-a trade-worthwhile and the series of index-option-trading-with-statistic5. I found that probability is really the essence of the option trading because at the end of the day what a option trader cares about is whether s/he can be benefited by her/his premium received from the credit trades or by the trade profit of the long position. Unlike something on earth that probability is somewhat difficult to be determined, luckily how likely a particular strike will go ITM or OTM is rather somehow predictable so making a option trade decision is a lot more logical and reasoned. For example, based on the past settlement data, by shorting a position at a strike which is with 0.1 probability of going ITM will most likely let the trader be exposed at only 10% risk which is quite safe in the normal market situation. Naturally the risk level is completely at the trader's discretion according to his/her risk appetite but the key point is by knowing the probability it allows a trader to pick a strike under an informed decision.

As a option trader, I would say probability is probably the greatest discovery ever!

A world of two worlds

Apart from the novel coronavirus pandemic, the most popular talking point around the world now must be the conflict between the U.S. and China. With the U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo's recent speech in July at Nixon Library, a symbolic place for the memory of Richard Nixon whom started a historical relationship with China, that he explicitly declared that such a relationship was proven to be a failure. A failure which Nixon, or the U.S. be more specifically, wanted to have China to be transformed into a member of the world that shares the western value through the economic integration with the West.

At such a symbolic place that carries significant meaning between the two countries, Pompeo's such speech was no difference from a declaration that now the U.S. not only no longer sees China as a working partner but perceives the latter as a rivalry, if not enemy yet. Despite everybody knows, when the U.S. started the trade war with China back two years ago, that the honey moon between the two nations has long finished. Yet, people might still thought that Uncle Sam was just not happy with the teen rebellion behaviour that his growing up little brother is showing. Some guessed that the U.S. might just wanted to teach China a lesson to behave but did not mean business. Now they realize that all those things were just a prelude. A prelude of a full range of combating including economic, technical, diplomatic, financial and perhaps even military actions despite China is not yet fully well prepared for that at this moment.

Some commentators termed the theme of the relationship between the two nations has transformed from decoupling to disconnection. Decoupling is just about the cessation on cooperation on some aspects while disconnection means a clear cut on all relationships. The undertone is the preparation on a true war at the end of the day. Apparently even though China is eagerly to challenge the world order that was established by the U.S. after the WWII but she is not up yet for a true war with the U.S. and that is why the China ambassador in the U.S., Cui TianKai, was trying to tone down the tension between the two nations saying "both nations have to work harder to overcome the current difficulties, to try to dispel suspicion, doubts or even fear," he said. "We have to build a constructive and mutually beneficial relationship for the future." amid the U.S.'s  continuous breakage on such relationship in all ways like the force-closure of the Houston China Embassy, force-selling on the Chinese origin social media app Tik-Tok...etc which are quite humiliating and aggressive toward the Communist regime.

Perhaps this is the moment the top boss in Beijing regrets the too high profile announcement on the advocacy of the Belt and Road as well as the Rise of Big Nation back a few years ago. Such move awakened the U.S.'s suspicion on China's ambition to challenge the world order established by the former whom will not let it happen by at all means even if resorting to a true war. When people sees the conflict is the fight on the interests between the two nations but indeed it is much more than that.

What the two nations is wrestling on is about the say of the world order. The order that dominates how the world should go and how the global interests should be allocated among nations. Because there is so much in stake, indeed it is not just the confrontation between the U.S. and China. Under the existing world order the beneficiaries are not only limited to the U.S. but its "ally nations" or strictly speaking the countries that can share the benefits under the pecking order in the existing world order. These countries are mainly the western developed countries and a few Asian countries like Japan and South Korea under the U.S. umbrella. It is this common interests that brings them together and formed alliances against any challenger to the existing world order. The typical example of these alliances is the Five Eyes which was originally meant to share intelligence but more and more it is going to be a form of power to strike any prospective challenger to the existing world order. This is the reason why the Japan is going to join the Five Eyes apart from the Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and of course the U.S.

It could be this kind of coalition map that China softens it tone as much as it can, despite of amid the current humiliation which is not lighter than the invasion of the Eight Nations Alliance in the late Qing Dynasty back in 1900. China knows that once there will be a war, she is not going to fight with the U.S. only but all these beneficiary nations under the existing world order. China also realizes that despite she looks strong in economic aspect comparing to its western counterparts but she is no match at all in all round strength especially in the aspect of military power. Therefore China can't help but just swallow these humiliations to buy time to better prepare herself for this war.

While in her preparation within her own soil, China is going to form the coalition of her own to counter the western alliance as well. Naturally those die-hard U.S. opponents like the Russia and North Korea are best candidates. On the other hand, there are not shortage of opportunistic countries who will take side when the bait is large enough. China is doing this well to provide financial aids to these countries which are mostly those third world ones.

Prior to the War and when the full disconnection is in place, the existing global trading could largely be compromised. Most world cooperation organizations will be split. People interaction between the rivalries is prohibited. Things happened in the Cold War in the 60-70s' might resurge. The whole world will be divided into two blocs. By then, the world will enter into the stage of a world of two worlds.