Who is going to laugh till the end?

 He said it at last.

In yesterday Trump responded to the reporter during the Thanksgiving appearance in the White House that if the Electors choose Biden to be the next President of the U.S.A. in their voting on the 14th in next month then he will leave the White House.

The Biden camp burst into euphoria when vote counting revealed that Biden's ballot outnumbered that of Trump's. The media even claimed that Biden has won the election few days after the voting ended. Biden was a bit reserved on the outcome and did not declare victory only till the 8th when the vote count in Pennsylvania and Georgia showed that they are in Biden's favour. 

On the other hand, Trump insists that the election was rigged and has never conceded failure even now. He has been saying to fight for the justice via legal action. Trump said it in the Tweeter many times. 

Despite earlier quite a few nations like the France, the U.K., Canada, China, German, Saudi, Australia...etc have congratulated Biden becoming the president-elected yet the transition between the two administrations has not started only after the General Services Administration(GSA) confirmed it under the letter to Biden three days ago.

After Biden's declaration and the endorsement of GSA, the world, or at least most of it, thought that the president-elected is by right becoming the next president. Or is it?

Why so asked?

Because Trump said he would fight via legal action? Nope. Despite Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania have rejected the cases but that is not the key point. In fact, It is only Trump's tactic in dealing with the public. Legal action is merely a cover up for the true action behind the scene. He knows something that you guys don't, or be misled with. Being the president as well as the player of this election game, he knows what matters and what don't. And he revealed to you guys in yesterday. He is waiting for the voting of the Electoral College.

In fact in my earlier post Does it really matter?  I already mentioned it. The general public, at least many American, thinks that the election happened on the Nov 3 decided who the next president would be and they think their votes made that happened. They are damn wrong though. Americans are misled by a deliberate illusion. Their voting is just a beautiful misleading to make them believe that they enjoy the democracy to choose their president. There are in fact other king-makers behind the curtain. 

Trump knows it all. He does not care about American's votes. Nor does he care about the GSA's decision. These are not the determinant. I say it again. He is waiting for the voting of the Electoral College. They are the true king-makers.

The design of the election system is that when the Electors judge that the popular vote does not reflect the best interest to the country, upon their conscience they can cast their vote otherwise. Now the trick is that Trump said the election was rigged. He claimed there were many frauds in the mailing ballots. The accusation leaves much room for the Electors to exercise their conscience. 

In my another post Politics is cruel?  I said politics is all about parceling out interests. There is nothing more political than is the presidential election especially that for the U.S. President. One must be super naive if s/he really thinks that the Electors will cast their votes solely upon their conscience when facing such a big controversy. S/he must also be ultra stupid to think there is no solicitation upon these electors now. Needless to say, there must be enormous bargaining happening right now behind the curtain till the December 14. People should not forget that there were five popular vote winners did not win the presidency along the American history. In fact Trump himself was exactly the beneficiary of such system which he actually lost the popular vote in 2016 but won the electoral vote. So he knows most what matters.

Who is going to laugh till the end? As what Trump always said, we'll wait and see.

It's all up to you now, guys

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A political nuclear bomb exploded here in Hong Kong in yesterday. Following the passage on the qualification on the Legco lawmakers by the standing committee of the China's People Congress, the Hong Kong government immediately declared that four lawmakers in the opposition camp were disqualified with immediate effect. Meanwhile, all the 15 remaining pan-democratic camp lawmakers announced their resignation resulting from such action from the Hong Kong government.

Some may say this is something like the tsunami following the 10 scale seabed earthquake in politics. Or is it?

The main street seems not much be concerned nor did the Hong Kong bourse react on it. This is rather eerie though, contrasting with the public's fierce reaction arising from the motion on the extradition bill by the Hong Kong government in last year. Apparently the general public has learned something. So what did they learn?

First of all, people know that the Legco is part of the regime. Opposition within the Legco against the administration apparently will not pay off. In fact, the opposition camp lawmakers have never really made any ground-breaking success in altering the Hong Kong government's main theme of China-isation. What they could do were filibustering during the Legco meetings, adjourning the meetings via insufficient presence of lawmakers. Being minority actually there is really not much substantive they could do. Having an opposition voice in the Legco seems to be symbolic more than substantive. It is not a true regret that all the opposition camp withdrew from being a backcloth which the Hong Kong government can use as the existence of democracy or the exhibition of the liveness of the so-called "One country, Two systems".

Secondly, people learn the true meaning of the frequent statement made by the Hong Kong government's officials that Hong Kong is an non-alienable part of China. They know that China's rules of game finally will, or have already? cast on Hong Kong. With the table turned, Hong Kong has evolved from the guiding role of China's modernization to the seeker of the preferential treatments from the central government. When guts has become the word of the past, people are also pragmatic and realistic on their stand.

On the other hand, with the successful containment of the novel corona virus vs the latest outbreak again in the western world, followed by the economic influence table-turning, China has gained much courage and confidence towards its once big brothers counterpart. The vision of the Rise of the Big Nation is getting closer and closer. China not only can say no but can do it as well. Compound with the decoupling which further leaves no hope on the harmony with the West, China dares to do what she likes at will blatantly and in broad daylight. 

So what happened in Hong Kong in yesterday is not something unexpected. This is just something along the script. People will not be surprised when something else similar are coming down the line. In fact, the recent trend in Hong Kong's development doesn't come without any practical point. With the dust and mist settled, a clear road path on Hong Kong's future is visionable. It will become part of China, as what people can see in many other cities in China. The Two Systems will become only a talk when China uses Hong Kong to deal with the West on bypassing the sanction or whatever inconvenience which the Mainland faces. Domestically people here in Hong Kong can expect everything will be same as what their Mainland fellow is facing with. 

Now, it is all up to you on how to deal with it for you and your families. Guys.

Ant-Man has been taken down!

Forgive my lousy gag and accept my apologize to the fans of Ant-Man. In fact this post absolutely has nothing to do with the Marvel's character, Ant-Man. It is solely a joke on the subject because the China fintech company, Ant (Group), did get into trouble on its IPO in China and Hong Kong bourse thus the Man, Jack Ma, behind the Ant did get trapped with some headache.

While the ballot counting on the farce of the U.S. presidential election is still going on, perhaps equal attention has been drawn on another farce of the abrupt suspension of the IPO of the Ant Group here in Hong Kong, and in China as well. It was said that there were more than 1.5 millions subscribers on the IPO so it potentially became the talk of the town. It is abrupt because the suspension was called in two days prior to its intended listing day. It is a farce because the suspension was due to the supervisory bureau's sudden awareness, just prior to the IPO, that the business model of Ant Group has potential great threat to China's financial stability.

It is absolutely correct and legitimate to suspend the Ant's IPO if its business model is hazardous. However, the Ant has been working on such business model for years and its IPO application should has been scrutinized by the related supervisory bureau well ahead of the intended listing day. It is impossible that the Bureau only noticed such potential threat two days prior to the listing. Nor the Ant's business model evolved into a great threat to China's financial stability within days after the approval of IPO by the Bureau. Yet the farce happened and perhaps it is the only possible in a nation with China characteristic. 

A farce may be but it did happen with its context. The Ant Group is China's rising fintech company whose major owner, Ma Yun, is the nation's richest man now. Ma is also the owner of China's largest online shopping platform, Alibaba which is listed in the U.S. and Hong Kong and it is commonly regarded as a private company. Being the largest online shopping platform, Alibaba has enormous influential power in China's economy because there are tens of thousand SMEs selling their products in its platform and behind these tens of thousands SMEs and together with their suppliers there are tens of millions workforce engaged and feeding the same amount of families. Alibaba's annual turnover is also gigantic so its operation is about the make or break of the economic as well social stability in China. 

With so much in stake, Ma and his companies become so important to the ruling of the country that the CCP cannot sleep well without a full control on them. Yet officially Ma's companies are privately owned. It is still alright if Ma is fully obedient to the governance but he is so daring to make criticism saying that there is no financial systematic risk in China because there is no system in the first place during a public speech in last month. This is just too rebellion that he cannot be tolerated in the CCP's eye. This is the trigger which most commentators commonly see it why the Ant Group's IPO was suspended.

Perhaps Ma's recent speech did cause the CCP's dissatisfaction but this move should not be the main reason because despite such speech did slam the financial bureau's face but it does not bring material threat to the ruling of CCP. It is Ant's business nature that matters. Traditionally China's lending market is dominated by the state-owned-banks(SOB) and through these SOBs the CCP controls which business sectors and which corporations can be funded to maneuver its financial and economic policies. Such ability is equally important to the firm control over its army for the CCP's ruling on the nation.

The rising of the fintech companies like the Ant Group is an undermining of CCP's such ability. The Ant's lending is mainly to the SMEs and the individuals though. The borrowings from these SMEs and individuals are much smaller than those from the state-owned-corporations but they are vast in numbers. Despite the total lending amount which was taken by the Ant from the SOBs does not really endanger the latter but who will be happy to see one's business is shared by someone else especially when the business climate is not good? The Ant has hurt the interests of the beneficiary controlling families behind the SOBs. 

On the other hand, Alibaba together with the Ant, one focuses on the marketing and the other one on the financing just forms a business empire putting a vast numbers of SMEs and the people related under its umbrella. This business empire could become a formidable force which can rock the governance of the nation, especially when the leader of the business empire is too bold. 

This Ant must be taken down! 

Then what about the Man?