2019年7月31日 星期三

Don't get it wrong

Following the terror attack in Yuen Long MTR station in last Sunday, there was accusation that the police ignored the gathering of the men-in-white gangsters prior to the attack and deliberately delayed to be present in the crime scene of violence when it happened. Rumor of collusion between the police and the triad went viral.

Perhaps it is a success of the Hong Kong action movies of police and criminals on the portrait of both parties. The public generally holds a thought that the police is against the criminals and they take each other as enemy. Unfortunately this is just a big big misunderstanding, if not misleading of concept. Police and triads in Hong Kong have been collaborating for decades indeed.

Gangstering is an ancient "business" throughout the world. There are always criminals who prefer to make their living by taking advantage of the other people and to take the fruits out of them illegally. Therefore police is there to combat these criminals and to restore the law and order in the society. This is probably the basic formula of most police action movies. The reality is that this is not completely the truth though.

While the Hong Kong government is still capitalizing on the legacy residue from the former British-Hong Kong's civil servant team that is pride with high integrity amid its rapidly China-ization after the returning to the Mainland, as mentioned in my previous post that in fact Hong Kong has experienced a dark age of law and order in the 1950-60s' prior to the inception of ICAC in 1974, Hong Kong was literally managed by gangs because they have bribed the whole police force so that all criminal activities were tolerated or even under the police's consent. The police's job was indeed to coordinate with the gang bosses to ensure the latter properly managed the different clans within the gang for an equilibrium on business interests and turf occupation to avoid fighting among themselves. As such to maintain the social stability.

Corruption was once largely reduced at least on the surface after the establishment of ICAC. Bribing to the police force especially the low ranking officers is basically eliminated. However, gangsters has not gone away but still exist in the society. What they did is just to adapt to the new landscape. While human being as a species evolves so do the gangsters. Triad bosses have learned that to survive they need sustainable income sources. Without the blatant protection from the police, their illegal businesses became riskier. They resorted to legitimate but lucrative businesses such as movie-making industry and show-biz which were in their prime in Hong Kong during 1980-90s'. Triad bosses transformed into legitimate businessmen.

While the triad bosses can make a flamboyant transformation but not that to all gang members. Most of the clan members still rely on illegal businesses for living. On the other hand, their originally illegal businesses are the triad's roots which are still quite profitable so are indispensable. However, gone were the days that these illegal businesses under the police's blatant protection. Their operation could be raided at times and brought losses to them. Therefore the gangs look into every way to counter the police's law enforcement actions and undermine the latter's surveillance on the former. While in most of the time the police is at the upper hand but the gangs will capitalize on every chance to enhance their leeway.

The gangs know well that one of the police force's KPI is crime rate which is largely under the gangs' manipulation. The police is keen on a low crime figure to show to the public that crime is under their control and this is what the gangs can leverage on a bargain with the police in the exchange of leeway to their businesses. On the other hand the police knows if they eradicate the gangsters livelihood then it will just lead to a revenge resulting in rocketed crimes. A surge in crime rate meaning a social instability especially in public order and this brings pressure on the police force's performance. A delicate mutual consensus is therefore made on the level of police's clamping and the gangs self-restrain. Collusion between police and triad has been around for long time. It is just a big misunderstanding if some people think that the public order is maintained under the police's one sided effort. The reality is that it is only a trade-off between the two parties.




2019年7月22日 星期一

A storm is brewing

Last night was definitely a milestone in the on-going anti-extradition bill incident.

When weekend marches in Hong Kong has already become a routine, what happened in last night definitely has entered into a new territory which has profound impact on what is coming in the future. Needless to elaborate more, they were the vandalization on the China Liaison Office(CLO) in Western by men-in-black and the terror attack in Yuen Long MTR station by men-in-white.

Unlike the previous marches and the aftermath confrontation between the minority protesters and police, the march in last night ended up to be the besiege of the CLO and even vandalization on the China national emblem at the CLO. CLO is the quasi China embassy in Hong Kong. The attack was no ordinary besieges elsewhere in the past thus this is something groundbreaking in the sense that it aims explicitly towards China herself. It is already not a local issue about the people's dissatisfaction on the past governance by the Hong Kong government, nor about the trigger event of the objection on the extradition bill. Apparently forces with otherwise objectives have hijacked the movement into a China-targeting campaign. CLO is a symbol of China's sovereignty in Hong Kong and the attack will definitely be seen as a challenge. Bejing's upcoming responds will definitely bring a significant impact on the further development on the already tensed China-Hong Kong relation.

On the other hand, the men-in-white terror attack in Yuen Long was apparently a well organized and premeditated crime aiming to take the chance to reclaim and share the policing power when the Hong Kong police force is busy on dealing with the large scale confrontation elsewhere. There was a saying that prior to the establishment of ICAC in 1974 especially among the 1950-60s', it was the triads who literally ran Hong Kong under the overseeing of the badly corrupted Royal Hong Kong Police. The triads lost its heyday after the corrupted big bosses in the police were forced to retire after the inception of ICAC. The triad bosses transformed into legitimate businessmen, as and when Hong Kong's economy was entering into its golden 30 years since 1980s', along with their original businesses.

These triad bosses have been longing for and looking for any chance for the returning to their heyday. They hold this hope for good reason because China has a favourable feeling towards Hong Kong triads. Deng Xiaoping and the former chief of the Bureau of Public Security said not only once that some triads were patriots. They saw the golden opportunity when the Hong Kong government fell into a lame duck and the credibility and popularity of the police force has largely undermined now. This situation gives rise to their power to negotiate a better position in running their illegal businesses. The random assault in the MTR train and station was just a flexing of its muscle to showcase how much chaos they can make to the law and order in Hong Kong. It also was meant to tell the police who has the real say in the local community.

While the above two events captured most of the public's attention, there were two news should equally deserve the same concern. The first news was that the police has raided an arsenal found with explosives and other weapons in last Saturday and the other news was the announcement made by the Junior Police Officers Association in the middle of this month urging the senior police management should consider the safety of the front line officers when deploying them in dangerous missions. Do they have any impact on the latest development in last Sunday? You bet!

Carrie Lam is really in a big bowl of hot soup now. She has not only got one hand burnt but the other one as well now. She relies on the police force to deal with the men-in-black as well as men-in-white. On the other hand, the public is strongly requesting an independent inquiry commission which is resisted by the police force. She just got stuck in the middle.


Now these two forces are just in their early stages. A bigger storm is yet to come.



2019年7月5日 星期五

Root cause! root cause! root cause!

Thanks to the coaching by the wife of the leg pain-led stepped down former chief executive of HKSAR, Uncle Tung that for important thing, it must be repeated three times. As mentioned in my earlier post that according to a theory of quality management discipline, when something went wrong, the so-called root cause (it's a jargon, in plain words meaning the underlying reason) must be identified so that corrective action (another jargon, meaning the fix) addressing the root cause can be developed in order to tackle the problem.

What happened at night on July 1 in the Legco building here in Hong Kong was certainly a problem which could be viewed in different angles though. People from different sectors have given their comments and views on the issue. Naturally the pro-establishment camp condemned it as outlaw violence while the pan-democrat camp did their best to justify the storm. To be fair, violence is violence. The nature is uncontroversial. What deserves a thorough examination is the root cause though.

Among those public views, except those pretentious high profile condemnation, most of them are quite fair and non-biased. The mainstream view point is that the level of violence is inappropriate,  overdone and unfortunate. However, the culprit is the establishments including the administration and the pro-establishment law makers. There are two meaningful characteristic in this incident, ie., the participants are all youth and the target of the attack is iconic.

Unlike the preceding two marches in June and the one on July 1 day time that participants covered a wide range of ages, but those who stormed in the Legco building at night were all youth. While those three marches were organized, however the storming at night was spontaneous and impulsive. Some argue that this was an organized crime and backed by foreign influences. No sensible person will naively deny that there were no facilitators in that night's actions. Those know also know that Hong Kong has been an action field of intelligence of all sorts when it was still a fishing port. The question is not whether or not on the presence but how influential they were.

There is a words of wisdom saying that maggots follow once meat is rotten (肉先腐而後生蟲) meaning the development of maggots is only the symptom while the underlying cause is that the meat is rotten in the first place as such attracts flies on which eggs are laid. In this case, foreign influences, and facilitators were just catalyst. The maggot is the incident of extradition bill which was just a trigger. The rotten meat is the resentment and grievance accumulated for a long extended period of time among the public especially the youth. When the right timing in the right occasion hits, it just sparkles into infernos venting their anger and resentment just like volcanic eruption.

The root cause of the resentment and grievance are multiple. The storming into the Legco building  can just provide some hints. Since the disqualification on the four pan-democrat law makers, the Legco became the most violent place where the pro-establishment law makers abuse their power, sadly lawfully. When the power balance between the two camps was destroyed. The public just saw how the pro-establishment law makers dominate the chairs of all committees in the legislative council thus manipulated and maneuvered the Legco meetings as if the People's Congress in China. The Legco is literally in de facto failure on the monitoring on the administration governance. The Legco became the pro-establishment camp's exclusive playground and the extension of Beijing's ever increasing inception in local affairs. The public's feeling of inability and frustration is just mounting higher than ever.

Indeed the latest Interpretation on Basic Law by the People's Congress in 2016 and the following judgment by High Court declaring the invalid oaths by the four pan-democrat law makers was the most profound blow on the relationship between Beijing and Hong Kong. That was the blatant interference in broad daylight on the most symbolic icon of Hong Kong's democracy showcase. These four law makers were all first time elected and most of all, they are from those organizations representing those youth voters. The disqualification and the following debarment on their nomination were literally a declaration of war against the youth. This is the good explanation on the ever growing hostility against China among the youth.

Under this landscape, it is somewhat unfortunate for Carrie Lam to become the scapegoat because of her poor maneuver on the extradition bill that brought out such a mess. Anyway, damage was done now. It is just not an easy task to fix it especially there is little room for Lam to play around against Beijing's policy. On the other hand, Beijing is certainly more and more uncomfortable in seeing hostile emotion against it. Coming tighter grip on local affairs is just a reasonable anticipation only.

The verbal war that should has happened within the Legco ended up to be a physical one outside it. Beijing started a war and war is what it got. However, Hong Kong is just trapped into a deadlock and fell into a vicious cycle .