May is about over with just a few days to come and this month is really a noisy one particularly on this small island. Politically the extradition bill still captures the attention of the society here in Hong Kong thanks to the effort of the opposition camp and the involvement of the foreign embassies and chambers of commerce that make the issue became an international concern. As the dual committee arose in the Island's law making body, the Legco, that heated up in the local news report, the proposed bill received a greater concern over the society that now not only the law sector and business sector but the general walks of life has also paid more attention to the development of the issue.
This May is also a remarkable month in the financial market, particularly in the stock market as the HSI has once dipped up to 2912 points from the month's high, sees the biggest plunge in this year following a straight four months rally. This is the outcome of the "sudden" worsening of the trade tension between the U.S. and China. On the other hand in a wider scope, the recent various bans and restrictions on the China's biggest communication company, Huawei, remain the center piece of the trade negotiation.
Politics and economy are a twin as the development of either one heavily depends or influences the other. The above three major issues that dominant the headlines are in fact just about one thing, the combat between the world's lead and its challenger.
As I put it in my previous different posts that the trade issue between the U.S. and China has never really been the focus but just the wrestling of national power only. As the U.S. became more and more rocking on its attitude to close a trade deal with China and exercising its influence over different technical and standardization bodies and tech companies to imposing delisting of memberships and banning on supplies of parts and services to Huawei, the picture became very clear now that the U.S.'s strategy is to clamp China's rising by limiting the latter's edge on the 5G technology.
Prior to its dominance over the world affairs, the U.S. has once had a hard time under the suppression of the British Empire and took the chance of the WWII that badly hit the latter's economic strength then replaced it to become the world's leader. From the lesson of the fall of the British Empire, the U.S. knows well its leadership is not granted and is deserved well protection, should it remain dominant. The U.S. also knows well its world leadership relies on two key dominance, ie., military muscle and the U.S. dollar landscape. China's 5G technology is the U.S.'s Achilles heel in military strength, and perhaps even in commercial sectors as well as and when more and more applications employ 5G technology which the U.S. does not has a say. That rocks the foundation of the U.S. "empire" from the cornerstone. This is something must not happen, from the U.S.'s standpoint.
The U.S. has bred its own monster by allowing it to join the WTO thus flourishes it into a 1.4 billion people market. The once little brother has grown up to a big guy now, big enough to test his muscle and to challenge the Uncle Sam. This is going to be a battle of life or death, as an empire. As Trump's words put it, it is not China's fault. She has every right to take down the U.S just like what the latter did on the British Empire. It is just the negligence(?) or the palliative by Trump's predecessors that put the U.S. in position where it is in now. Now Trump does what he thinks right. There are many more somethings yet to come. Just forget the trade war. Embrace the turbulence yet to come, the play is far from over!
