Killing two birds with one stone

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With the passage of the electoral reform on the HKSAR's elections in the National People Congress's standing committee meeting back a while ago, the whole electoral tradition and the political landscape in Hong Kong is going to change fundamentally, for good.

There are many ways to get the details of the Reform for people whom are really interested in it. In a nutshell, Beijing made many changes in the electoral system in the HKSAR to achieve the so-called Administering Hong Kong by Patriots by primarily screening out the candidates from the opposition camp through the reform on the nomination committee so that these candidates' nomination is a mission impossible in the first place. The aim is further secured by the newly formed candidates qualification censoring committee which members are the high officials in the HKSAR administration. Any opposition camp candidates who are so lucky to get enough nomination will then be kicked away by the Committee so they will never get an entrance ticket to run any elections, say for the District Councils or for the HKSAR Chief Exective. 

Local commentators mainly focus on the above affect on the opposition camp and perhaps it was so well camouflaged that Beijing's intention of killing two birds with one stone was concealed. Naturally sweeping the opposition from the institutional structure is one the of bird that Beijing is keen to kill, however, there is yet another one which Beijing wanted to get rid of all along, ie., the locally grown big masters namely the property developer tycoons. 

Among the changes on the constitution of the nomination committee, apart from the merger or even removal of the sectors which are opposition camp dominated, there is also shrinkage on the seats from the local business sector. Local business sector has been enjoying a big influence on the policies of the HKSAR's adminstration all along especially at the beginning of the reunion of Hong Kong to China. In their hey days, the big four local property developer families and with their backed Chief Executive, Donald Tsang, acted almost like the quasi CE in the HKSAR administration. It is also in Tsang's administration period basically there was no plan at all on the new land formation which in return led to the severe housing supply shortage in the following years to come. This problem became one of the deep-seated conflicts which the Hong Kong society as a whole is still facing as well as the huge profit for these property developer families. 

The situation did not go without Beijing's awareness but she relied on these big masters to help maintain Hong Kong's stability especially the economic stability which was mainly under the control of the Big Fours, let alone China's economic strength back 15 years ago was not as high as it is now. Everybody who knows the characteristic of the CCP knows that Deng Xiaoping, China's modern political architect, who has laid a national policy to hold the temper for the sake of economic development first. Beijing was just waiting for the right time when she is strong enough to stand on her feet and shake off the reliance on the Big Fours.

In fact Beijing's plan was not unnoticed, at least the Hong Kong's wealthiest person, nicked name Superman Li, did know what the game is all about. Li is known as the smartest businessman in Hong Kong and he is so knowledgeable and well known for his sharp vision over the global as well as local political and economic future developments. Li also knows the CCP's traditional characteristic of kicking away the used ladders as what they did to those partriotic capitalists after the founding of the new red China back 60 years ago. He has started the divesting from Hong Kong almost a decade ago and diversified an heavy investment in the U.K. instead. People might admire Li's foresight and insight when they see what happened on Alibaba in China now. See my earlier post Ant-man has been taken down

Under the CCP's ruling, any potential threat to its governing must be removed. It is only a matter of time if it has not happened yet. 

 

It is still Hong Kong, or is it?

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It's been almost two months that the Blog was not updated. Partly because I was busy on personal affair but mostly due to the concern over personal security that a prudent examination on the enactment of the Hong Kong version of National Security Law(NSL) here in Hong Kong is necessary. 

A drastic change on Bejing's attitude towards the pandemocratic camp figures since the beginning of this year was seen. A massive arrest on those figures whom have taken part into the 2020 pro-democracy primaries which aimed to narrow down the candidates list for the Legco general election which was supposed to be held in last September but was proponed by a year under the excuse of the epidemic. The accusation is that the Primiries is the action of subversion of the Adiministration in HK and the Regime therefore an violation of the NSL.

Naturally the accusation is controversial depending one's stance. Anyway, the beauty of being in power is that law is interpreted as the regime's will, let alone an autocratic one. On the other hand, this is the bonus of the effective containment of the epidemic in China who gained much confidence over the polarity on the economic development between her and her western counterparts so she can do whatever she wants at will blatantly with little worry about the reaction of the latter.

On the other hand, Beijing reiterates Hong Kong's affair is domestic issue so she has absolute discretion over the running on Hong Kong. As a matter of fact this statement is damn right that Hong Kong is part of China so arresting those whom are accused with involvement of subversion on the regime is completely lawful. The definition of the actions relating to subversion under the Law is controversial though.

Alongside with the massive arrest, during the China National People Congress meeting which is being held in Beijing now that motion has been raised to reform the Legco Election Committee in a large extent. The reform is meant to exclude any dissident the chance of being a lawmaker, or not even a candidate, for the coming Legco general election in this year. All in all heavy-handed measures were or going to be implemented just for the sake to eradicate the root of opposition out of Hong Kong, in name of administering Hong Kong by patriots. 

This is by far the most massive crackdown on the opposition after Hong Kong's reunion to China yet the main street is calm, or indifferent, leaving Beijing's mouthpieces doing their propaganda alone.  Apparently the NSL has achieved the intended chilling effect as the public has learned the way for self-protection under power.

Propaganda says Hong Kong returned to orderly from chaos due to the NSL. Yet the peace appears at the surface is indeed with an unrest undercurrent beneath it. The silence is the just result of authority which can suppress the expression of will but fails to stop the minds from forming. Most of the HongKongers are not keen in politics but many of them do not buy the political system in the North as well. However, many traces gave away telltales that Hong Kong is really integrating with China, livelihood as well as political system. 

The general public especially the grass-root is silence because they know they are bounded to stay and this is the only preservation to stay afloat under the authority. However, for those who are above average they have more alternatives. It is evidenced that quite a number of nations not only have extended their friendly attitude but some substantial measures to cater to the worry of the Hong Kong people. Naturally critiques or conspiracy comments are nothing short of from the propaganda again. To be honest, most of these potential citizens are top of the cream so welcome doors opened to them is nothing but just normal in the sense of mutual benefit.

Immigration is not cheap so those who are qualified are usually those sought after talents wanted by whatever countries no matter the east or west. America is the best showcase to examplify how the inflow of talents and capital can boost a country. Sadly these talents will just turn their back to their motherland but just fled to assist the counterpart due to politics.

Apart from the case of America, Hong Kong is renowned with its past achievement of economic success out from a formerly fishing village due to the influx of migrants and capital in exile before the red China was founded. It was talents that make this miracle happened. Perhaps China does not worry about the brain-drain because there are plenty supply from the north. In fact, there has been scheme introducing expertises from China in place all along. As a matter of fact those mostly western values-contaminated talents are anti-communism which is dyed in the wool.  It is not a bad idea to rinse Hong Kong with heavy-handed measures.

After all, One Country Two Systems is just a slogan and no matter the previously advocated Administering Hong Kong by HongKongers or the lastest version Administering Hong Kong by patriots are merely propaganda. What China needs Hong Kong to be is just a name claimed to be different from the autocratic regime so it can help facilitating between the regime and the western world for the sake of capital and technologies. It does not really matter who are living there and who are running it. As long as it is still called Hong Kong.

Or is it?

Light at the end of tunnel?

The most talk about issue locally here in Hong Kong remains the epidemic and the vaccine in the pipeline. With the absence of the dictatorship type of containment measures that is practiced in China, the western world as well as the democratic countries in Asia including Hong Kong are still struggling on the recent wave of the novel coronavirus. With the recent delivery of the vaccine, the whole world just sees the vaccine as the silver bullet to the dilemma as well as the economic resurgence. It seems as long as the vaccine is widely available to the general public then life will resume to normal so will the economy be.

Maintaining hope in life is important as to the drive to overcome difficulties, looking through rose-tinted glasses might bring more bad than good though. Let alone whether the so far major three vaccines available are proven to be effective is still not yet clinically certified, in fact none of them has finished the phrase III testing. The vaccine efficacy rate are all self claimed by the producers only. The most important point remains none of the producer is able to confirm the length of protection, even if the self-claimed efficacy rate is really valid. 

The whole world is forced to gamble on the effectiveness of these vaccines, sadly the price is that a vast numbers of people is to be the guinea pigs. According to the news, the vaccines do not have the supposed reception from the general public and this comes with good reason because despite the immediate serious side-effect rate after the vaccination so far is not high but since these vaccines have yet finished the normal and official testing process, the risks on the long term side-effect cannot be ruled out. 

The other concern on these vaccines is that the protection is unlike the other previously proven ones for other diseases that they can provide a comprehensive protection like immunity to infection and stops transmission even if infected, these three vaccines are not capable to stop transmission, at least no confirmation has ever made by the producers. Therefore even people take risk to be vaccinated yet the transmission chain will not be broken even if many people are vaccinated because the best self-claimed efficacy rate is 95% by the Pfiser followed by 94.1% by Moderna while Sinovac's has only 79% as self-claimed figure. Those infected even after vaccination can keep transmitting the disease unknowingly.

In a nutshell, resting the hope on the vaccine that it can end the pandemic thus the world can resume to normal and the world economy resurgence is just a wishful thinking. Let alone in reality people from the poor countries will not have access to vaccination so even if there is full vaccination in the rich countries the global transmission chain will never end indeed. The most optimistic forecast can only be the domestic resumption to normal within the rich countries on the basis that there is a nationwide full vaccination which is another wishful thinking.

On the other hand, while the whole world is putting its hope on the vaccine but it seems only little concern was put on the fact that vaccination is just a race against the viruses/germs because these microbes are constantly evolving and most of all, at a very fast rate which is way faster than the human's ability on vaccines development. In fact there were already more than 20 mutations found just in U.K. alone. Naturally not all mutations could bring more serious symptom or even more deadly but it is not whether or not but just a matter of time that a more deadly mutation is for sure in the pipeline as whether the more future mutations will become more friendly or deadly is just a random chance. Therefore chances are that before the western rich nations can achieve enough herd immunity through vaccination on their people, the Virus could has already mutated into a variation that the current vaccines are no longer protective leading the previous effort in vain. Let alone those poor nations are even not vaccinated due to financial constrain.

Higher the expectation, bigger disappointment will be when things turn out otherwise. As Trump's famous saying, we'll wait and see.

Who is going to laugh till the end?

 He said it at last.

In yesterday Trump responded to the reporter during the Thanksgiving appearance in the White House that if the Electors choose Biden to be the next President of the U.S.A. in their voting on the 14th in next month then he will leave the White House.

The Biden camp burst into euphoria when vote counting revealed that Biden's ballot outnumbered that of Trump's. The media even claimed that Biden has won the election few days after the voting ended. Biden was a bit reserved on the outcome and did not declare victory only till the 8th when the vote count in Pennsylvania and Georgia showed that they are in Biden's favour. 

On the other hand, Trump insists that the election was rigged and has never conceded failure even now. He has been saying to fight for the justice via legal action. Trump said it in the Tweeter many times. 

Despite earlier quite a few nations like the France, the U.K., Canada, China, German, Saudi, Australia...etc have congratulated Biden becoming the president-elected yet the transition between the two administrations has not started only after the General Services Administration(GSA) confirmed it under the letter to Biden three days ago.

After Biden's declaration and the endorsement of GSA, the world, or at least most of it, thought that the president-elected is by right becoming the next president. Or is it?

Why so asked?

Because Trump said he would fight via legal action? Nope. Despite Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania have rejected the cases but that is not the key point. In fact, It is only Trump's tactic in dealing with the public. Legal action is merely a cover up for the true action behind the scene. He knows something that you guys don't, or be misled with. Being the president as well as the player of this election game, he knows what matters and what don't. And he revealed to you guys in yesterday. He is waiting for the voting of the Electoral College.

In fact in my earlier post Does it really matter?  I already mentioned it. The general public, at least many American, thinks that the election happened on the Nov 3 decided who the next president would be and they think their votes made that happened. They are damn wrong though. Americans are misled by a deliberate illusion. Their voting is just a beautiful misleading to make them believe that they enjoy the democracy to choose their president. There are in fact other king-makers behind the curtain. 

Trump knows it all. He does not care about American's votes. Nor does he care about the GSA's decision. These are not the determinant. I say it again. He is waiting for the voting of the Electoral College. They are the true king-makers.

The design of the election system is that when the Electors judge that the popular vote does not reflect the best interest to the country, upon their conscience they can cast their vote otherwise. Now the trick is that Trump said the election was rigged. He claimed there were many frauds in the mailing ballots. The accusation leaves much room for the Electors to exercise their conscience. 

In my another post Politics is cruel?  I said politics is all about parceling out interests. There is nothing more political than is the presidential election especially that for the U.S. President. One must be super naive if s/he really thinks that the Electors will cast their votes solely upon their conscience when facing such a big controversy. S/he must also be ultra stupid to think there is no solicitation upon these electors now. Needless to say, there must be enormous bargaining happening right now behind the curtain till the December 14. People should not forget that there were five popular vote winners did not win the presidency along the American history. In fact Trump himself was exactly the beneficiary of such system which he actually lost the popular vote in 2016 but won the electoral vote. So he knows most what matters.

Who is going to laugh till the end? As what Trump always said, we'll wait and see.

It's all up to you now, guys

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A political nuclear bomb exploded here in Hong Kong in yesterday. Following the passage on the qualification on the Legco lawmakers by the standing committee of the China's People Congress, the Hong Kong government immediately declared that four lawmakers in the opposition camp were disqualified with immediate effect. Meanwhile, all the 15 remaining pan-democratic camp lawmakers announced their resignation resulting from such action from the Hong Kong government.

Some may say this is something like the tsunami following the 10 scale seabed earthquake in politics. Or is it?

The main street seems not much be concerned nor did the Hong Kong bourse react on it. This is rather eerie though, contrasting with the public's fierce reaction arising from the motion on the extradition bill by the Hong Kong government in last year. Apparently the general public has learned something. So what did they learn?

First of all, people know that the Legco is part of the regime. Opposition within the Legco against the administration apparently will not pay off. In fact, the opposition camp lawmakers have never really made any ground-breaking success in altering the Hong Kong government's main theme of China-isation. What they could do were filibustering during the Legco meetings, adjourning the meetings via insufficient presence of lawmakers. Being minority actually there is really not much substantive they could do. Having an opposition voice in the Legco seems to be symbolic more than substantive. It is not a true regret that all the opposition camp withdrew from being a backcloth which the Hong Kong government can use as the existence of democracy or the exhibition of the liveness of the so-called "One country, Two systems".

Secondly, people learn the true meaning of the frequent statement made by the Hong Kong government's officials that Hong Kong is an non-alienable part of China. They know that China's rules of game finally will, or have already? cast on Hong Kong. With the table turned, Hong Kong has evolved from the guiding role of China's modernization to the seeker of the preferential treatments from the central government. When guts has become the word of the past, people are also pragmatic and realistic on their stand.

On the other hand, with the successful containment of the novel corona virus vs the latest outbreak again in the western world, followed by the economic influence table-turning, China has gained much courage and confidence towards its once big brothers counterpart. The vision of the Rise of the Big Nation is getting closer and closer. China not only can say no but can do it as well. Compound with the decoupling which further leaves no hope on the harmony with the West, China dares to do what she likes at will blatantly and in broad daylight. 

So what happened in Hong Kong in yesterday is not something unexpected. This is just something along the script. People will not be surprised when something else similar are coming down the line. In fact, the recent trend in Hong Kong's development doesn't come without any practical point. With the dust and mist settled, a clear road path on Hong Kong's future is visionable. It will become part of China, as what people can see in many other cities in China. The Two Systems will become only a talk when China uses Hong Kong to deal with the West on bypassing the sanction or whatever inconvenience which the Mainland faces. Domestically people here in Hong Kong can expect everything will be same as what their Mainland fellow is facing with. 

Now, it is all up to you on how to deal with it for you and your families. Guys.

Ant-Man has been taken down!

Forgive my lousy gag and accept my apologize to the fans of Ant-Man. In fact this post absolutely has nothing to do with the Marvel's character, Ant-Man. It is solely a joke on the subject because the China fintech company, Ant (Group), did get into trouble on its IPO in China and Hong Kong bourse thus the Man, Jack Ma, behind the Ant did get trapped with some headache.

While the ballot counting on the farce of the U.S. presidential election is still going on, perhaps equal attention has been drawn on another farce of the abrupt suspension of the IPO of the Ant Group here in Hong Kong, and in China as well. It was said that there were more than 1.5 millions subscribers on the IPO so it potentially became the talk of the town. It is abrupt because the suspension was called in two days prior to its intended listing day. It is a farce because the suspension was due to the supervisory bureau's sudden awareness, just prior to the IPO, that the business model of Ant Group has potential great threat to China's financial stability.

It is absolutely correct and legitimate to suspend the Ant's IPO if its business model is hazardous. However, the Ant has been working on such business model for years and its IPO application should has been scrutinized by the related supervisory bureau well ahead of the intended listing day. It is impossible that the Bureau only noticed such potential threat two days prior to the listing. Nor the Ant's business model evolved into a great threat to China's financial stability within days after the approval of IPO by the Bureau. Yet the farce happened and perhaps it is the only possible in a nation with China characteristic. 

A farce may be but it did happen with its context. The Ant Group is China's rising fintech company whose major owner, Ma Yun, is the nation's richest man now. Ma is also the owner of China's largest online shopping platform, Alibaba which is listed in the U.S. and Hong Kong and it is commonly regarded as a private company. Being the largest online shopping platform, Alibaba has enormous influential power in China's economy because there are tens of thousand SMEs selling their products in its platform and behind these tens of thousands SMEs and together with their suppliers there are tens of millions workforce engaged and feeding the same amount of families. Alibaba's annual turnover is also gigantic so its operation is about the make or break of the economic as well social stability in China. 

With so much in stake, Ma and his companies become so important to the ruling of the country that the CCP cannot sleep well without a full control on them. Yet officially Ma's companies are privately owned. It is still alright if Ma is fully obedient to the governance but he is so daring to make criticism saying that there is no financial systematic risk in China because there is no system in the first place during a public speech in last month. This is just too rebellion that he cannot be tolerated in the CCP's eye. This is the trigger which most commentators commonly see it why the Ant Group's IPO was suspended.

Perhaps Ma's recent speech did cause the CCP's dissatisfaction but this move should not be the main reason because despite such speech did slam the financial bureau's face but it does not bring material threat to the ruling of CCP. It is Ant's business nature that matters. Traditionally China's lending market is dominated by the state-owned-banks(SOB) and through these SOBs the CCP controls which business sectors and which corporations can be funded to maneuver its financial and economic policies. Such ability is equally important to the firm control over its army for the CCP's ruling on the nation.

The rising of the fintech companies like the Ant Group is an undermining of CCP's such ability. The Ant's lending is mainly to the SMEs and the individuals though. The borrowings from these SMEs and individuals are much smaller than those from the state-owned-corporations but they are vast in numbers. Despite the total lending amount which was taken by the Ant from the SOBs does not really endanger the latter but who will be happy to see one's business is shared by someone else especially when the business climate is not good? The Ant has hurt the interests of the beneficiary controlling families behind the SOBs. 

On the other hand, Alibaba together with the Ant, one focuses on the marketing and the other one on the financing just forms a business empire putting a vast numbers of SMEs and the people related under its umbrella. This business empire could become a formidable force which can rock the governance of the nation, especially when the leader of the business empire is too bold. 

This Ant must be taken down! 

Then what about the Man?

Does it really matter?

As October is drawing to its end the whole world is looking forward to seeing the biggest event that is going to happen in this early November. Yes, you got it right, the U.S. presidential election. It is important not only to the U.S. and the Americans but to most parts of the world as well because with Trump has stirred the world as well as the U.S. itself upside down in the past four years so people just wonder whether this guy is going to win another term of four years and keeps stirring the world, especially amid the pandemic.

The polling is going to end on November 3 local time so most people think it is the decisive day on the presidency. However, those who know know that November 3 is only last day of the polling by the Americans but actually they do not have the right to vote for their president. It is only the electors in the Electoral College have this right. They are the ones who are really going to decide who is going to be the president of the U.S. and their voting happen on December 14 only so it is more than one good month later than November 3. 

Customary and usually the Electors should align their vote with the popular vote, ie., the wish of the general Americans in their states to cast their own vote but it is not strictly legal bidding. That is to say, the vote from the general Americans does not necessarily reflect the result of the election even if a candidate has won a majority of ballots on November 3. The result on December 14 after the electoral college voting is after all the real one. The fact is that electors' vote could be contrary to the popular vote in their states. So folks, just forget the date of November 3 which is just a show of democracy only.

Despite the U.S. is the largest democracy country in the world but judging from its indirect election system, the so-called one person, one vote, is actually a counterfeit. The establishment of the electoral college was actually a big scam to the general Americans and it was done in purpose by the founders of the then newly formed nation. Everybody know that the U.S. was once the colony of the British Empire prior to its independence. After fighting eight years with their original sovereign nation, the colonists finally won the war to form a new born nation. Most of the founders who were responsible for drafting the constitution were lawyers. 

Contrary to most of their fellow who were farmers and laborers that were mostly illiterate, these lawyers were well educated and astute. They engineered the constitution which is in favour to these elites by designing the indirect election system via the establishment of electoral college. The system prevents the general mass, due to their numbers, from electing an inappropriate president under the simple one person, one vote, election system especially when the overall education level of the general mass was still very low thus prone to stupid and emotional decision.

The original intention of the electoral college might sound reasonable under the particular context at that time. However, this system remains unchanged even after two centuries and the general mass of Americans have already received education and most of them are sensible enough to pick their president. Yet, their right is still deprived despite of the name of leader of the democracy world. What an irony!

In fact, it is not only the problem of the crippled election system but the faulty institution to be blamed. Under the current political context in the U.S. that with the oligopoly of the Republic Party and Democratic Party so the Americans are only subjected to a choice of lesser evil when choosing their president. After all, the president of the U.S.A. is only a front stage figurehead of the political party which he represents. The point is that both of these two parties are for the interests of their respective vested interests groups only. None of them is really the guardian of the general mass of the Americans. So does the election really matter to you, Americans?