Omicron, OhMyGod!

While the news that the Hong Kong government's talk with its sovereign government sheds some light on the conditional re-openning of the border between the two, people here in Hong Kong is yet to be happy but then in the past week there was a news about a fast spreading  new powerful mutant of the Covid-19 emerged in the Africa and spreading to the rest of the world now. The WTO terms it with the 15th Greek alphabet, Omicron, but I think to most of the people can't help but cry out its nakename Oh-my-god.

It is Oh-my-god because this mutant is not just another one that has been around in the past. This Omicron is far more contagious than its family while whether or not far more deadly is still unknown yet. On the other hand people can't help but cry out OMG because the whole world has rested their hope on the vaccination that as long as the vaccination level is high enough then life can be resumed and economy will be recovered. In fact the living-with-virus (LWV) approach that rest on a higher vaccination level has already been adopted by many countries whose economy were badly hit due to the lockdown in the past or at least strict restriction on the people flow as well as the goods transportation disruption. These countries are desparately in need on the economic resurgence because most of the LWV countries are democratic nations that the current administrations will most likely be voted down if their people still suffer from the poor living due to the economic downturn. The emergence of the Omicron is really Ohmygod to both the administrations as well as the people in these countries.

In my post light-at-end-of-tunnel2 I was skeptical on the LWV approach already. However three months has passed by since then and more and more countries are forced to adopt the LWV approach under the tremendous pressure on economic resurgence. Let alone the downside which I mentioned in the Post but in fact the LWV approach is vulnerable because its assumption of the herd immunity rests on an high level of vaccination among the whole population which unfortunately does not happen in these LWV countries. The key reasonale lies on the protection against infection resulting from vaccination or at least the low fatility rate even if infected so people can generally live a relatively normal life. 

However, the fatal blow to the LWV approach now is that the Omicron is such a mutant that it can effectively escape from the detection mechanism of the existing vaccines making them almost useless. If the Omicron is also a deadly variant that it will just be a death sentence on the LWV approach. The whole world will just fall into the looping of the lockdown and reopen thus the economy is paralysed so is the people's livelihood.

The another risk of the LWV is that it provides a perfect breeding ground for the Virus to evolve and mutate into an highly contagious and deadly mutant. Viruses need a host providing them an habitat so they can live. As long as they live then they keep evolving to combat on the obstacles like antibotics. In fact all creatures live and thrive in this way by overcoming obstacles but the point is that the evolution rate of the micro organisum is much higher that of their hosts as well as the pace of the new vaccine development. The outcome is the viruses always lead the race. LWV provides an environment that there are many vaccinated hosts as well as unvaccinated virus carriers mingling together. Mutated virus can keep infecting the vaccinated hosts to test breaking the effectiveness of vaccines via a fast evolution. The emergence of a highly deadly variant is not the question of whether or not but as a matter of fact just time. The leaders of the LWV governments seem overlook the fact that virus will definitely defeat the existing vaccines in one day and human always lack behind on the new vaccine development.

Omicron may or may not be very deadly but if the leaders in the LWV governments keep the game on then eventually there is one day people is bound to cry out Oh My God.

Light at the end of tunnel?(2)

In the post with the same title light-at-end-of-tunnelwritten at the turn of this year I was not optimistic on the hopes(dream?) resting on the vaccines which were just put in the market. Eight months have passed since then and unfortunately things just happened exactly as I mentioned in the previous post. 

Not only an high herd immunity arising from high vacination rate among the developed countries like the U.S. and the U.K. is yet achieved, on the other hand a high contagious mutant virus, Delta, do exist as forecasted, luckily not as deadly as mentioned though. The even worse news is that more and more people even fully vaccinated with two jabs were found infected and at the same time constagious to other people. The hypothesis of herd immunity seems at the brink of collapse. The hope so far on the vaccination is only the protection against the mortality rate. Therefore countries like the U.K. and Singapore detour their strategy to live with the virus rather than a strict containment or even elimination in their soil. People argue that such approach is a bold bet. In fact such bet is just at the expense of those who are vulnerable to vaccination due to allergy or other unfit conditions. They are more likely to be infected then die from complication because of a higher vaccinated yet infected population walking around them.

The approach of living with virus devides the world between vaccinated and unvaccinated, domestically and internationally. It is quite clear in the international aspect on this devision, those rich countries are talking about the third boost jab on their nationals while many poor countries are desperate on vaccine quantity far below their population. The living with virus approach undoubtedly will lead to a higher transmission rate across borders as well as virus mutation rate. When the virus Delta evolves into a not only highly contagious but also more deadly mutant then people from these less developed countries is doomed. It is just a big joke on UN's declaration that “all human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights.” Let alone dignity, in reality some people always enjoy more rights while some others are deprived from even right to survive.

Unlike those poor countries where vaccine quantity available is far below from their population, ironically some people in the rich countries are resistant to vaccination. Apart from some who are allergic to vaccine or whose conditions are too vulnerable, for one reason or another like suspicious on the vaccine safety or the quest on the respect of their choice, there are quite some in the rich countries do not want to get their jabs. Therefore domestically there are also devision between vaccinated and unvaccinated in these countries. Disregard the reason of these unvaccinated people, Their life are at risk anyway when their countries adopt the living with virus approach because there are increasing vaccinated yet infected people spreading the virus around more than ever. It is fair enough for those who choose no jabs on their own but for those who are just unable to be vaccinated, such approach is nothing different from hanging their life on a thread.

While those adventurous nations are in trial of the risky bet of living with virus approach, many others are watching closely on the outcome. Frankly speaking time is not at their side because their economies are suffering badly from the containment approach. They are desparate for a wayout to resurgence. This is particularly true for those deomcratic countries where people tend to vote out an administration which fails to bring the ecomomy around. The governments in these countries most likely cannot help to bet on such approach at the expense of the unvaccinated.

Vaccine used to bring the hope of the light at the end of tunnel but when its halo fades, people realize that possibly the ordeal is far from over.