Trade war? A trick!

I have posted two articles about this topic and my view was very clear since the first post that the trade war between the U.S. and China was not really about the trade but the wrestling on the status of  No. 1 nation. Not long ago Trump said he may postpone the deadline on the elevation of the tariff on the China imports because the talks between the delegations of the two countries went well. Trump once stood very strongly that no extension would be given but his latest move brought me an extra perspective on this issue.

Allow me to detour the subject for a while. I like movie watching and nowadays movies market is dominated by Hollywood productions which heroic movies is definitely one of the blockbusters. In this category of movie, the story is usually about an imminent crisis or catastrophe which the U.S., if not the whole world, was facing and it could cost tens of thousands or even millions of life should it finally happen. The situation was pressing but seemed no way out and the clock was ticking. Then there came the hero who solved the problem and saved the world. This is the typical formula of Hollywood heroic movies.

I guess Trump is also a heroic movies fan but he not only likes watching but is also very much interested in screenwriting. He knows the Americans is fond of hero so he wrote a movie, the Trade War, in which he is the male lead. In Hollywood movies the U.S. presidents all were portrait as patriots who took the role to protect the nation and the people as their unshirkable duty. In his movie Trump created a crisis out from nothing and then fix it in order to win the applause. It is true there is a huge trade imbalance with China but as long as China keeps using that printed matter which is called Dollar, that they got from the trade surplus, to buy the U.S. government bonds. The trade deficit is only a matter of accounting entry but the fact is that China is financing the U.S. government in the exchange for the room of development. China leaders and all previous U.S. presidents knew what it is all about.

However Trump highlighted the trade imbalance and raised it up to a level that almost became a national crisis. He then directs the play of trade talk and naturally the ending of the story is that he wins the victory and the country is saved. What a national hero! Looking at the way he manipulates the progress of the trade talk I truly believe he is directing his own best movie of the year. Naturally Trump's effort in producing this movie is not just out of fun but for the next term of presidency. He is passionate to serve the country? I can't tell cos I don't know him but he can probably direct a few more "movies" in another four years if he wins the election again. On the other hand just imagine the market sentiment rocks like roller coasters along with the good and bad news that came with the trade talk and it means the market will see many more ups and downs to come if Trump managed to grab another term of presidency, isn't it a great chance for huge profit if there is a genius who can time the market right?