2018年11月19日 星期一

Hemophilic value investors

It is not meant to be an offense to value investors in the first place despite of the topic. If you happen to be an value investor then perhaps you may agree on my point after reading my post later on.

Although I am not a fan of value investing but as I mentioned in my earlier post that I do like some of the concepts advocated by value investing. One of the them is that (be greedy) to buy when the public is in fear. It is also because of this concept that I came up the subject of this post. Usually when people faces catastrophe then they will fall in fear. For investors to be in fear there must be something really bad happened. It could be a super natural disaster just like when tsunami hit Japan in 2011 or a financial catastrophe like the subprime mortgage incident in 2008. SARS outbreak in Hong Kong in 2003 is still an unforgettable scene. Naturally large scale terrorist attack like the 9.11 in 2001 also brought fear to the public. Let alone if there is trace of military confrontation between nuclear nations.

No matter what the nature of the incidents are, be it political, financial or natural, all these incidents brought huge damage to the people affected. The damages could be big economic losses or even a long death toll. However, this is the moment that the public is in fear and this is the moment that gives value investors a very good chance to buy in stocks, at price well below intrinsic value. So this is exactly the moment value investors are waiting, if not longing, for.

Maybe most of the value investors are peace-loving guys. However, on the other hand they know well that the golden chance that they can buy stocks at well below intrinsic value is the moment when the market is in panic which leads to irrational sell off. They may argue that their golden chance is just the outcome of someone's mistake to sell stocks at wrong price and in wrong timing. They should buy instead of selling. Their argument sounds perfectly reasonable. True is it value investors do not press the panic sellers to do irrational sell off. They just grab the chance when it arises. Nor do they cause the catastrophe that drives the public panic as well. They are just patiently waiting for catastrophe and expecting someones to make mistake. However, let's be frank value investors, while you guys are waiting didn't you ever have the thought that how nice it will be if there is a chance to let me buy my favourite stocks at price below their intrinsic value? Have you never thought that what makes that moment to come? Come on, you know well what it means when you can successfully achieve your target. Yet, you are expecting that moment. So ain't you deserve the description of the title of this post?

Don't worry, I am not blaming you. I am with you. We are just two of a kind!

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