2018年10月14日 星期日

Financial crisis, a black swan. Or is it?

Black swan is defined as something with very slim chance yet happened. In financial market a crash is usually attributed by black swan. It seems most, if not all, crashes were unexpected. but were  they?

There is a conspiracy(?) that nowadays the few super rich families like the Rockefellers and the Rothschilds are actually the rulers of the world. With their super dominant financial strength they influence, if not manipulate, the world affairs just like balls juggling. Not only do they apparently control the business world but in fact they are the mastermind behind the curtain on many government policies, the nomination of key officials or even the result of the elections in most of the western countries.

With their men implanted into different governmental bodies and their own control on the banking system and the clearing function, money flow and investment positions are all under their monitoring. Just imagine the whole world's economy is shrunk into a gambling table, the banker know all the positions because all the bets are visible on the table.

The U.S. stock market has just experienced the second largest plunge in this year and DJIA has rebounced 287 points (1.15%). The coming Friday is the settlement day in this month so it is still too early to say a further fall is yet to come. However, disregard what the market situation will be like in this Friday the U.S. stock market will not have problem before the election in this November. Trump or the Republican need a good market sentiment to win the election anyway.

Having said so I am not so confident after the election. Most of the major stock markets in the world have seen significant adjustment from their peak but the U.S. market keeps staying at its record high level making it to be the only choice for most of the fund managers whom are bound to invest despite they all know investing in the U.S. market is just a musical chair game. After all, fund managers'  bonus relies on the performance of the funds under their management. The U.S. market is the only promising place that they can invest to beat the benchmark.

According to the conspiracy theory Fleecing the Flock, it seems a perfect storm is on its way. The Theory suggests that the big master players deliberately drive a market up to lure the money from the general masses then at the high level these predators slaughter their prey by releasing a black swan to create panic in the market leading to irrational sell off. A massive wealth transfer is thus perfectly achieved.

Along with the FED's interest hike action, currencies fell against the U.S. dollar. Economy in the countries which used to be benefited by the low interest rate massive amount of U.S. dollar loan are now hit badly. New emerging markets are among these victims. Compounded with the liquidity squeeze following the FED's shrinkage on its balance sheet, low cost hot money is draining. Pressure on most of the stock markets are mounting so driving all bets on the U.S. market. All it needs is just a black swan.....

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