The possible biggest black swan in this year

Black swan is termed as the very unexpected incident with very slim chance yet happened. There were many examples of black swans internationally or domestically. Just name a few like Brexit and Trumped. However, the biggest one is yet to come. Many people may guess I am talking about the possible outbreak of the war between the U.S. and North Korea. This is not what I meant, I am going to share my thought on the topic though.

So far there is only exchanges of heated wordings between Trump and Kim. Most of the commentators concluded that war is unlikely as the both sides cannot afford so because should war happen it will most likely trigger a nuclear warfare that not only ruins both of them but the world as well.

My concern is not whether there will be a nuclear war that reduces the possibility of its happening. I'd rather focus on the two key persons, ie., Trump and Kim. As a result of propaganda from the mainstream media, Kim is projected as a cruel and crazy guy. Naturally I do not know the truth but I do respect Kim as the chief of a country and his vision as well. Had he not insisted on the development of nuclear weapon I do not think he stands a chance to quarrel with Trump. Take a look on the different faith on Iran and Irag that one will not doubt the importance of the ownership on nuclear weapon to a small country when they chose not to be winged under the U.S. You may say I am nuts but I think the world is even much safer when there are more nuclear weapon-backed countries. The effectiveness of nuclear threatening was well demonstrated during the Cold War period and in the competition between the U.S. and China now.

Now back to Trump, he is also labeled as a crazy guy by his rivals. I don't think he is out of his mind but sometimes he showed symptom of mania. The evidence is that he can't help to twitter naive messages or to refute the criticisms against him. He is an extraordinary president yet no predecessors ever done that before. His act is like a kid always saying no to mom. You are lazy, no, I am not! Go to bed now, no, I am not going! However, he is a grandfather.

Frankly speaking I have worry over Trump more than Kim but do I really worry there will be a nuclear war between the two countries? I think more people are more concerned about it than I am. They are the super rich families in the U.S. Kim did the bluffing only but Trump is another story. Will these families allow their wealth be destroyed by a man with mania? In American history, "coincidentally" always there was a "lunatic" showed up in time to take down his president whom would potentially jeopardize the interests of the super rich families. Well, there are so many lunatic in the world, with no exception in the U.S. and there was no shortage of examples that U.S. presidents could not complete his term.

So is that the possible black swan? probably yes but the even bigger one is that what if the lunatic fails to appear in time to do his job?

God bless American.