傾城The Fallen City

 

熱情就算 熄滅了

Even though our passion dies.

分手這一晚 也重要

It still matters, our final night.

甜言蜜語 謊話嬉笑

Sweet words, lies and jokes,

都給我一點 不要缺少

I want it all and nothing less.

話題盡了 也不緊要

and if we’ve nothing more to chat,

吻我至淒冷的深宵

Just kiss me til the night goes dead.

繁華鬧市 燈光普照

Lights still shine in thriving town,

然而共你 已再沒破曉

but we know we’ll have no more dawn.

紅眼睛 幽幽的看著這孤城

With red eyes, looking at this isolated city,

如同苦笑 擠出的高興

It’s like a joy out of sickly smile.

全城為我 花光狠勁

As the whole town goes wild for me,

浮華盛世 作分手佈景

hollow prosperity is our final scene.

傳說中 癡心的眼淚會傾城

In legends, lovers’ tears make castles fall.

霓虹熄了 世界漸冷清

Dimming neon, quiet-down world,

煙花會謝 笙歌會停

dying fireworks and fading symphony,

顯得這故事尾聲 更動聽*

make an enchanting end of all.

Repeat *

紅眼睛 幽幽的看著這孤城

With red eyes, looking at this isolated city,

如同苦笑 擠出的高興

It’s like a joy out of sickly smile.

瓊樓玉宇 倒了陣形

Those jade palaces, and turncoats within,

來營造這 絕世的風景

make this ending the greatest scene.

傳說中 癡心的眼淚會傾城

In legends, lovers’ tears make castles fall.

霓虹熄了 世界漸冷清

Dimming neon, quiet-down world,

煙花會謝 笙歌會停

dying fireworks and fading symphony,

顯得這故事尾聲 更動聽~

make an enchanting end of all.

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If you know it, you'll understand it.  If you don't understand it, you may even not bother to know it. We have ended up coming to a time when something cannot be spoken but just be understood. However a song composed some twenty years ago but how coincidentally the lyric echos the scenario nowadays. 

A fallen city, a relict.

This city is dying

There was a TVB drama production in 2011 when the line "This city is dying, you know?" went viral, after the social movement in the past few years, many people recalled this line. Amid the Covid latest stage say these weeks, people can't help but recalled this line again, but for another context.

Hong Kong people just puzzle why the SAR health officials always lag behind against the situation and made always mis-timing health policies? When the Covid emerged, the HKSAR government was slow in quarantine the inbound travellers as well as slack in the counter-measures in late November 2020 which was known as the Fourth Wave, a tragic death toll of 9000+, was recorded. Among the many mistakes and errors, in a nutshell, a wrong perception on the pandemic as well as the wrong attitude in the key health official, namely Sophia Chan, is the culprit.

With the sixth term of HKSAR administration inaugurated since this July and new Secretary of Health, Prof. Lo Chung Mau, is in place so people expected new official could bring new insight and not only new but effective as well as timely measures. Unfortunately honey-moon is always short-lived. Lo is again slow in coping with the rapidly changing Covid situation here in HK and comparing to that in the rest of the world as well. 

While our neighbour like Singapore, Japan, Korea...have lifted, if not all then most of, the inbound travel restrictions, many countries in the rest of the world also relaxed many of the inbound restrictions in order to resume the people flow in light of the social and economic activities. Hong Kong is still shy in joining the bandwagon though. The former Chief Exective, CY Leung, advocated Hong Kong as a Super-Connector between China and the world. However, as the ressult of the outdated stringent inbound restriction, the world has already abandoned Hong Kong as a partner of the global game. The recent detoured international sports events and exhibitions are just some good evidence. Super-connector became an empty slogan only.

Naturally being the head of the Department of Health which is responsble for policy making, Lo was under fire for the failure of coping with the global trend. Lo played rhetroic on the death rate as an excuse to the failure. Perhaps he is only a scapegoat though. When China still holds tight on the zero-Covid policy, just being a local health official, Lo dares nothing but just sticks closely to the national policy to avoid the blame on rocking the national security through a relaxed inbound control. This is the dilemma perhaps who being an HK official must face as what the advocate puts it that Hong Kong must integrate into the national development setting.

The former Chief Executive, Tung Chee-hwa, once said Hong Kong will see its well-being when the country prospers. Many people believe but most of them do not realize that China places collective well-being above individual as well as national vs regional. While zero-Covid policy works in the mainland does not mean it is also beneficial to a particular city, especailly an interantional city where flows of people is as important as flow of blood. Hong Kong is suffocating. She will soon lose the status of international hubs of travel, transportation, businesses as well as finance. While foreign businesses avoid passing through Hong Kong, the local businessess are also starving to death due to the existing health policy.

This city is dying, you know?

A tale of Chai and Tyler

Stories usually starts from once upon a time. Ok, so once upon a time there were two brothers who lived in the same abbey but as time went by the younger brother, Chai, grew stronger and expelled the elder brother, Tyler, to leave the compound onto a hut at the fringe of the abbey. Since then Chai and Tyler were strangers to each other for decades. Chai owned all the properties in the abbey so his living was getting better and better while Tyler was confined in his small hut so he could barely make ends meet. Yet Chai, from time to time, sent his henchmen to threaten Tyler because the latter tried to get his hut out of the control from his younger brother. Chai saw Tyler's movement as a stealing of his property so he kept threatening his elder brother that he would reclaim the hut or in the last resort to smash the hut if Tyler dares to claim the hut's ownership. Their confrontation lasted for decades and the tension kept on.

On the other hand, amid the brothers' struggle their rival neighbour, Sam, was watching opportunistically trying to intervene into the affair for a profit so he teamed up with Tyler so that he had the excuse to step in the siblicide. Under the shear pressure from his younger brother, Tyler had no alternative but to align with Sam whose plan was to stir up the confrontation and if Chai does send his henchmen into Tyler's hut then he would back Tyler up to fight with Chai. Sam's idea was to drain Chai's resources through a prolonged fight to eventually take down this rival.

Chai realized Sam's plan so he has been unhappy on Tyler's mingling with this rivalry under his nose. He repeatedly warned the two from further interaction. Chai also warned Sam not to visit Tyler's hut as he saw such move as a challenge of trepassing on his abbey. However, in order to lure Chai to fall into a fight with Tyler, Sam kept doing nuisances and till one day, a servant of Sam climbed over the fence of Tyler's hut at night and pissed over there. Chai bursted into furious anger and blamed Tyler on his failure in safeguarding the fence as well as Sam's trepassing. Despite in rage, Chai condemned Sam's behaviour but all he did over Sam was limited to condemnation only. However, to punish his elder brother, Chai sent henchmen to smash the fence of Tyler's hut. 

The above story was found in a long lost broken manuscript so no one knows what happened next. Because of the open ending, some readers find it interesting in speculating how the author would complete the story. However, most readers puzzle on why Chai would react in a rather unsensible way that Sam was indeed the culprit of the incident but he remained unscraped. Despite of the prior serious warning but when things did happen, all those warnings just sounded more bark than bite. From Sam's point of view, it was nothing but a big slam on Chai's face in respond to his serious warning. On the other hand, poor Tyler was the scapegoat. The author did not reveal whether Sam's servant was a solicited trepass or not but the point is that it seems even if it was an unsolicited one Tyler was unable to say no to Sam. No matter what, Tyler's fence was smashed by Chai's henchmen anyway after the incident. Poor Tyler!

Are you kidding?

When the COVID-19 cases in Hong KOng rose to tens of thousand a day and the infection rate doubled in every 2-3 days, apparently people is panic and became a bit of unrational in some behaviour like the buying spree of self-testing kit. 

In my post enough is enough I doubt the effectiveness of self-testing kit when Carrie Lam's administration rolled out the idea of sending the self-testing kit to all Hong Kong people as a measure to detect the stealth infected in the community. The reason of my doubt rests on two premises, ie., mis-administered testing procedure leading to wrong result as well as human nature that some people might choose to remain silent even if on the positive result because they just do not want to disclose it due to quite a numbers of personal consideration like no work thus no pay. 

The recent buying spree on the self-testing kit does not prove my doubt is wrong. The buyers fall into mainly three categories, the first and very big chunk is that they need a positive test result to keep their jobs valid but the public testing capacity falls short in great extent, the second group is concerned on whether they are infected while the last group is just blind sheep under the herd behaviour. The buying spree demonstrates that the society is in panic state so people overreact on whatever seems to be useful. Naturally Lam's bullshit idea might also put fuel on the fire as well.

Lam does not seem to realize her bull shit idea's problem but even put it to an higher level that the government is building a system to accept the citizens' testing result via the self-testing kit. The incapable secretary of food and health bureau, Sophia Chan, said the System can help the government to evaluate the community infection status thus devising the corresponding measures. 

Chan's statement not only is a big joke in light of the drawbacks of Lam's bull shit idea but demonstrate how incapable she is. The result of self-testing kit is highly unreliable which is not the kit per se but due to the uncertainty of people's correct testing procudure like the sampling with swub and the waiting time thus is the result. On the other hand, when any one can tap on the system and input whatever result in it then how trustworthy the findings of this System can be? What reliable insight thus effectiveness measures can be generated when the castle is built on the sand? People should doubt Chan's intelligence in light of her such big joke. Are you kidding, Madam? No wonder Hong Kong fell into such a chao and disastrous situation when the chief responsible official of Hong Kong's health policy is an idiot.

God bless Hong Kong!

Help yourself

When native English speakers say help yourself, it means the guest can just feel free to enjoy whatever offered. To the people in Hong Kong, help yourself carries another totally different meaning now when they are facing the recent spike of CONVID 19. They really need to self helping themselves because the HKSAR government is at the brink of collapse on addressing the current surge of over thousands verified cases a day. Not only the public health system is highly overloaded but all kinds of anti-plague measures like the quarantine facility and testing facility as well as home quarantine support services all fall short to demand in a large extent.

As I mentioned my earlier post enough is enough  the reason is due to the absence of contingence plan arising from the lack of foresight, if not the worse case, malfeasance, of Sophia Chan, Secretary of Food and Health, Caspar Tsui, resigned Secretary of Home Affairs Bureau and of course the Chief Executive, Carrie Lam. They are inevitably the culprits of poor management of this spike of plague. Tsui resigned under the blame of his attendance to a birthday party which is a violation of the social distancing policy. However, the other two are still in their positions but most likely their days is numbered. Anyway, no matter what their political future will be, the fact is that the public is the victim of their wrong doings. When the public services are at the brink of collapse, Hong Kong people can only help themselves but not depend on the government.

Despite of the relatively low fatility rate of Omicron but when the infection cases rose, so was the daily death toll which climbed to a couple of dozen in the recent days. As getting infected is not a low probability event, the number one self-helping is to remain survive after infection. Getting vaccinated is the proven measure. Vaccination cannot prevent infection though but remaining alive after infection is the bottom line.

While the bottom line of stay alive by vaccination is secured, the next self-helping is to avoid getting infected. Naturally wearing face mask is the basic and mandatory step. However, as far as observation reveals that many people do not pay enough attention on their hand hygiene. Many passengers in the public transportation still grab the handrail with their bare hands. Shoppers also pick up merchandise with bare hands as well. No doubt many people carry a bottle of hand sanitizer but the point is that in most of the time they did not clean their hands in time after each and every touching with these objects. Those objects could be contaminated and very likely they would touch their own belongings afterward thus spreaded the virus onto their belongings. When they touched their nose, eyes or mouth unconsciously right after toughing these contaminated belongings thus be infected. Wearing disposable plastic gloves before touching these objects seems to be paramount. This helps avoiding infection in the first place.

For those unfortunately already infected, depending on the level of symptoms, self-helping is also more practical than seeking medical services from the public health system. There are already numerious cases that those verified infected being stranded at home awaiting for hospitalization or quarantine. Those patients with mild symptoms as long as they have already received their jabs do not need to panic because the fatility rate on the vaccinated is quite low. Most likely most patients will get well even if without medical treatment. Sleeping in open area in the chill nights awaiting for hospitalization could bring more risk exposure than can the disease per se be. Let alone the public health system is extremely overloaded so reserving the capacity for those truly endangered not only help ease the overloading but save one self by avoiding possible cross-infection in the hospital.

Naturally despite reducing social contacts, avoid visiting unnecessary premises sounds like platique but are truly practical self-helping measures. When the government fails their job to protect us, self helping yourself seems paramount than ever.

Enough is enough

In my last post omicron oh my god 2 in last Thursday I said when Beijing expressed its concern on Hong Kong's plague situation and said it would extend its assistance, that is actually a signal to Carrie Lam's administration saying Beijing is not happy on the then latest development in Hong Kong. Beijing would not stand sideline and let Lam and her bunch of incapable bureaucrats further jeopardize Hong Kong's well-being.  Today there came a news which explicitly mentioned that the President of State cum General Scretary of the CCP, Xi, laid an instruction that the HKSAR government must do by all means to suppress the plague and make sure Hong Kong returns to the right track. This news came in time just one day right after yesterday's verified infection cases rose to 5400+. Apparently Beijing is keeping a very close eye on the development and react promptly.

Lam and her bunch of related incapable bureaucrats are in hot soup now. An direct instruction from the State President is an absolute order which must be complied and failure is not an option. Having said, thing is not optimistic to Lam because with the existing measure there is literally no hope to turn the situation around in short time, or at least in a month or so considering the plague is in its full boom stage. Thing will just be worse but not the otherwise. 

It was said prior to this outbreak Lam was eagerly seeking the second term of her capacity of Chief Executive but judging what is happening now she literally will have no luck to run the election any more. There is a Chinese wisdom of word saying fortune and misfortune are twin and they inter-dependent with each other respectively (福兮禍所依，禍兮福所倚).  Lam have made a big mess in Hong Kong during the anti-extradition bill three years ago and when the judgment day was about to come then there came the plague in Wuhan, China and finally spreaded to Hong Kong in early 2020. Beijing kept Lam for the sake of stability in fighting the plague so it is the plague that saved Lam. Unfortunately it is the same plague which is very likely to put an end on her political future two years later. She just ran out any more of her luck.

In fact it is not about luck but Lam's character. Her character dictates her decisions which in turns led to the outcome of her doings. Lam was once characterized as very fighting when she was still the Secretary in the Development Bureau. It is her such personality that shapes her to be what she is today. Lam is self-confident and high in pride on what she does. There are pros and cons though. The price could be very high when she misjudges the circumstances because of her persistence. In the 2019 anti-extradition bill event Lam created a huge societal chao due to her persistence on the non-withdrawal of the proposed bill. In this plague she insists not wearing a face mask in the press conference appearance. She sees this as the standing up of her doings and pegged with her pride. This gives her a way of no return.

Whether to wear a face mask in press conference seems to be a minor issue but in fact it reflects Lam's mentality. She insists she take testings frequently and wore mask in all occassions so the likelihood to infect others or got infected is slim. It may be true but she neglects the psychological impact to the public on the stringent adherence to the anti-plague measures set up by her administration. People might follow to relax on the adherence to the measures as long as they think they are confident. Lam just set a very bad model to undermine the effort of the frontline personnel. The impact is far from the outcome from those press conferences.

Lam's pride also led her to wrong decisions. She believes in what she does and thinks they are all right but are they? Amid this recent spike Lam said her administration has ordered a hundred million of self testing kits and she thinks it is an effective measure to spot those hidden infected. Lam truly believes so and literally rests a big hope on the kick off. Unfortunately her persistence and pride will definitely give her another big blow on top of the other failure of her measures. Let alone whether all recipient can correctly administer the testing so an accurate result is viable but just image for people whose livelihood will be impacted if they are verified positive then will they honestly report to the authority so that they might lose their jobs? For many grassroot their wages count on their daily working and a no work day means a no pay day. This is reality and human nature but Lam overlooks it.

Apart from the many highly blamed operational flaws in different functions in the anti-plague measures, the key point lies on Lam's adminstration's lack of foresight and the corresponding contingence plan. In the past two years the HKSAR government has only been facing the development of the plague with reactive approach. Things were marginally manageable because of the relative smaller scale in the past but the table turned when Omicron mutant strikes in the beginning of this year. Yet Lam's administration still takes chance hoping things will be alright by luck but did not take a pre-emptive approach to prevent the worse scenario from happening.

The Omicron mutant emerged in the end of last year in S. Africa and before long it was classified as a highly contagious variance. Therefore it is not whether or not but just when this mutant will strike Hong Kong. This was a known high probability event. On the other hand, it is also a well in advance known high probability event that the existing facilities will largely fall short to demand when Omicron strikes Hong Kong judging from the high contagiousness. Yet from what have been done by the Lam's administration amid the spike in the past two weeks literally nothing has been planned and no preparation whatsoever was done to address what is happening now. Simply speaking there is no contingence plan at all. In fact the latest existing stringent measures came only fews days ago after there were 600+ case a day in straight three days when the Lam's administration woke up suddenly! This is a total failure being a government.

Enough is enough!

Omicron, Oh my god (2)

Two months ago my last post omicron ohmygod!  I wrote about the Omicron virus which its hostility to human was still unknown yet by then. Two months passed by luckily it turns out to be a much milder variant but on the other hand highly contagious unfortunately. It became the main culprit of the novel corona virus spreading in the world now. With no exception Hong Kong also is hit by this variant especially after the CNY holiday. The verified infection cases reached a staggering 600+ in straight three days followed by record breaking of 1000+ cases in yesterday. The infection rate grows exponentially as exhibited earlier in the other countries.

The HSAR government, Carrie Lam's administration, rolled out the ever strict measures including closing down businesses or tightening of the numbers of customer in Scheduled Premises. There are 6 newly added premises on top of the existing 17 ones and as usual the catering business is most hit one in terms of the number of businesses as well as the people employed. Having said, the other businesses and their employees are equally hit in this latest measure.

A plague is a natural disaster. It brings damages to people mostly life losses but when the plague is ill-managed the damages from this poorly managed measures could add to the public's woes. Unfortunately poor management seems to be a common symptom of most administrations, Hong Kong is no exception. What's more is that most of the responsible bureaucrats of the public health control are still feeling well and self-contented on their stupid doings. A typical example is Carrie Lam's explanation on her face mask off during the press conference as she wants to let the public to know her emotion. What an idiot and a bullshit! Naturally a bunch of self contented and self-claim elites bureaucrats under the leadership of such an idiot Chief Executive, Hong Kong is doomed to fall into this scenario.

Today there is news that the Central Government expresses its concern on the Hong Kong situation and will extend its assistance. This should be the sign that Beijing has thought enough is enough. It is time to stop Lam's administration further jeopardize Hong Kong's well-being. After all, its China's Hong Kong but not Lam's Hong Kong. As per China's political practices, a regional chief should has been removed long earlier when he/she failed to manage his/her turf properly. It seems Lam's days is numbered. 

Oh My God! says Lam.

Omicron, OhMyGod!

While the news that the Hong Kong government's talk with its sovereign government sheds some light on the conditional re-openning of the border between the two, people here in Hong Kong is yet to be happy but then in the past week there was a news about a fast spreading  new powerful mutant of the Covid-19 emerged in the Africa and spreading to the rest of the world now. The WTO terms it with the 15th Greek alphabet, Omicron, but I think to most of the people can't help but cry out its nakename Oh-my-god.

It is Oh-my-god because this mutant is not just another one that has been around in the past. This Omicron is far more contagious than its family while whether or not far more deadly is still unknown yet. On the other hand people can't help but cry out OMG because the whole world has rested their hope on the vaccination that as long as the vaccination level is high enough then life can be resumed and economy will be recovered. In fact the living-with-virus (LWV) approach that rest on a higher vaccination level has already been adopted by many countries whose economy were badly hit due to the lockdown in the past or at least strict restriction on the people flow as well as the goods transportation disruption. These countries are desparately in need on the economic resurgence because most of the LWV countries are democratic nations that the current administrations will most likely be voted down if their people still suffer from the poor living due to the economic downturn. The emergence of the Omicron is really Ohmygod to both the administrations as well as the people in these countries.

In my post light-at-end-of-tunnel2 I was skeptical on the LWV approach already. However three months has passed by since then and more and more countries are forced to adopt the LWV approach under the tremendous pressure on economic resurgence. Let alone the downside which I mentioned in the Post but in fact the LWV approach is vulnerable because its assumption of the herd immunity rests on an high level of vaccination among the whole population which unfortunately does not happen in these LWV countries. The key reasonale lies on the protection against infection resulting from vaccination or at least the low fatility rate even if infected so people can generally live a relatively normal life. 

However, the fatal blow to the LWV approach now is that the Omicron is such a mutant that it can effectively escape from the detection mechanism of the existing vaccines making them almost useless. If the Omicron is also a deadly variant that it will just be a death sentence on the LWV approach. The whole world will just fall into the looping of the lockdown and reopen thus the economy is paralysed so is the people's livelihood.

The another risk of the LWV is that it provides a perfect breeding ground for the Virus to evolve and mutate into an highly contagious and deadly mutant. Viruses need a host providing them an habitat so they can live. As long as they live then they keep evolving to combat on the obstacles like antibotics. In fact all creatures live and thrive in this way by overcoming obstacles but the point is that the evolution rate of the micro organisum is much higher that of their hosts as well as the pace of the new vaccine development. The outcome is the viruses always lead the race. LWV provides an environment that there are many vaccinated hosts as well as unvaccinated virus carriers mingling together. Mutated virus can keep infecting the vaccinated hosts to test breaking the effectiveness of vaccines via a fast evolution. The emergence of a highly deadly variant is not the question of whether or not but as a matter of fact just time. The leaders of the LWV governments seem overlook the fact that virus will definitely defeat the existing vaccines in one day and human always lack behind on the new vaccine development.

Omicron may or may not be very deadly but if the leaders in the LWV governments keep the game on then eventually there is one day people is bound to cry out Oh My God.

Two of a kind

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As the Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou and the two Canadian Michaels were released by the Canadian government and China government respectively, the detention farce has lowered the curtain. It is a farce because all sensible person understand the allegation of the two (or the three) detentions were just excuse. Meng was detained at the same day when the U.S. and China began the trade war negotiation so apparently she was used as a bargaining chip by the U.S. Having said, naturally Meng has committed the act in the allegation and this was truly a crime. However, such act could be ignored or at least tolerated when the accused was not Meng or Meng is not the daughter of the founder of Huawei whose 5G technology is the U.S.'s Archilles heel. Unfortunately she is what she is so Meng was chosen as a bargaining chip.

The two Canadian Michaels are among the hundreds thousand foreigners who are living in China but unfortunately they are Canadian. An nationality with sin at the time when the first detention happened. They were arrested days after Meng's detention under the accusation of the violation of China's national security which is by right a very serious and complicated act of crime so the investigation should require a long time. Anyway, only nine days after Meng was detained then the two Michaels were arrested and charged with the accusation. Any sensible person will not think the investigation has begun just after Meng's detention and could complete within nine days. Then why the arrest happened just a few days after Meng's case? Apparently the investigation has begun long before Meng's case but was just kept on hold until the right timing comes. However, China reiterates repeatedly many times and even just after the release that the two Canadian's prosecution has nothing to do with the Meng's case. Their case was an independent one from Meng's. 

Since Meng's arrest, China has been accusing Canada arbitrarily detained Meng and that was a political persecution. Anyway, the U.S. prosecutor claimed that Meng's presentation to the HSBC was a  misleading about Huawei's business with Iran. That act misled the HSBC into the infringement of the U.S. sanction against Iran. Apparently Meng is not totally innocent in the surface. 

On the other hand, the two Canadian Michaels were arrested with the accusation of violating China's national security. In China anything as long as relates to national security will be processed, including court trial, in the dark so no details or even just brief information will be released to the public. Therefore some western observers even suspect that the prosecution was just a fabricated accusation. Naturally only the two parties involved know the truth.

The farce was over now but before that the whole world was in the state "sit back, relax, and enjoy" to see how the show would end. This was something like the combat between Mafia and Sinaloa Cartel. People know that both arrests were injustice. The then U.S. President Trump once suggested that Meng could be part a trade deal with China. China described it as a coercive diplomacy. However, the two Canadian Michaels' arrest happened just nine days after Meng's so it suggested that the prosecution was solely a retaliation. Some commentators even termed it as hostage diplomacy. In any case both arrests were disgraceful acts and injustice. While enjoying the show, people can't help but just question the ethic level of the world's biggest and second largest economy. Naturally people understand that the farce happened under the context of the combat on the world leadership between the two superpowers. When things relate to national interests then compromise is always at the expense of justice.

To most onlooker nations, the two cases are merely a farce. All announcements regarding these two cases by the respective governments, no matter how serious they may sound, are just jokes. Having said, when China reiterates the two Michaels' case are independent from Meng's one, people just can't help but ask does Beijing really think a lie will become a fact when repeated a hundred times?

 

Tora! Tora! Tora!

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Appologize for my lousy gag again. This post has nothing to do with the famous movie about the Japan's attack on Pearl Harbour, nor anything about that piece of history in WII. The title just borrows the analogy of the code which Caption Fuchida used to kick off the bombing at the Harbour to signalize something very important is under way and people must be very cautious about, just like an airstrike is coming soon.

When Xi, the top boss of the CCP, PLA and State, of China first laid the term "common prosperity" in a CCP's meeting in the middle of last month, such speech sparkled big chaos in the business circle in China as well as the investing world. Xi's speech brings out the concept of "the third distribution of wealth" meaning the riches donate their wealth under their will to help the poors contrary to the "first distribution" through wages or dividends payout by corporations while the "second distribution" is achieved by social welfare system via taxation.

Frankly speaking donation is nothing new and should not deserve so much attention in the democratic countries. People, be s/he rich or not, donate or do not donate as well as the donation amount is done according to their own will. Donation is solely a personal and private act despite our society usually admire those who do so but no criticism to those who don't though. While some donors did it in high profile some just made big donation anonymous and despite the formers asked for fame but the latters are truly out of kindness. People are just acting according to their own will.

Unlike what we do in the free world, despite the CCP just made appeal to the riches on the donation/aids, such appeal is heavy-weighted, especially that came from the nation's top boss who is in high power now and where the norm "florish if obidient, perish otherwise" prevails. New rich corporations like Tencent and Alibaba... etc react promptly by making funds in billions of U.S. dollors to answer to this "appeal". They know the name of the game is survival in the place where the Party has the utmost leadership on everything, a characteristic of China's socialism.

Since the open-door policy raised by Deng Xiaoping by the 80s', China has been a magnet of investment. Foreign corporations capitalized on her low costs in running businesses at the beginning to set up manufacturing facilities as well as the exploration on the huge market when the Nation is getting rich in the latter stage. While some pioneers got their fingers burnt, many made good profit out of this country. Hence foreign investors seems either have ignored or forgotten China is still a Communist Party run country where "happy hours" is only something Cinderella. Afterall, the clock is bounded to strike to twelve.

Indeed Common Prosperity is one the central themes of Communism which advocates Common Ownership across Means of Production including assets and of course, wealth. Common Prosperity is only the means but not the end towards the "great ideal". 

As China adopted open-door policy, the western world concerted alongside to embrace her into their system by allowing her into the WTO as well as many international organizations hoping to induce her to join their "club". China thus prospers under the explosive trade volume with the West and became the second largest economy after the U.S. but despite bagging the jackpot, she is still committed and determined on the ideology and institution of her own. China remains a communism country.

Alongside with the advocate of common prosperity, China has recently launched quite some regulation on a few industries like the private tuition, e-game, ride-hailing, food delivery and movie artist ...etc., addressing to different concerns like the data safety, education focus as well as parents' financial burden, mental healthyness of youths and children and corrupted entertaining sector...All in all, China wants to pursuit a path different from the western world to differentiate herself as a China-charactistic socialism country.

With this ambition in mind, more regulation on many other industries and sectors are expected in the pipeline. The business landscape in China perhaps will see a totally different scenario from the past in the years to come. Maybe this is the time to farewell to the "good old time" in investing in China. On the other hand, the most horroble thing in investing in China is that the once successful strategy and experience could become a poison overnightly as long as the top boss in Beijing changes his mind. Perhaps no one could imagine that economic moat, big is beautiful, high profit...which were valued in the past now became a sin. Many stock commentators blah blah on the analysis in China stocks based on fundamentals or financials but what all these commentators fail to foresee is policy risk.

Tora! Tora! Tora! A storm is coming.

Light at the end of tunnel?(2)

In the post with the same title light-at-end-of-tunnelwritten at the turn of this year I was not optimistic on the hopes(dream?) resting on the vaccines which were just put in the market. Eight months have passed since then and unfortunately things just happened exactly as I mentioned in the previous post. 

Not only an high herd immunity arising from high vacination rate among the developed countries like the U.S. and the U.K. is yet achieved, on the other hand a high contagious mutant virus, Delta, do exist as forecasted, luckily not as deadly as mentioned though. The even worse news is that more and more people even fully vaccinated with two jabs were found infected and at the same time constagious to other people. The hypothesis of herd immunity seems at the brink of collapse. The hope so far on the vaccination is only the protection against the mortality rate. Therefore countries like the U.K. and Singapore detour their strategy to live with the virus rather than a strict containment or even elimination in their soil. People argue that such approach is a bold bet. In fact such bet is just at the expense of those who are vulnerable to vaccination due to allergy or other unfit conditions. They are more likely to be infected then die from complication because of a higher vaccinated yet infected population walking around them.

The approach of living with virus devides the world between vaccinated and unvaccinated, domestically and internationally. It is quite clear in the international aspect on this devision, those rich countries are talking about the third boost jab on their nationals while many poor countries are desperate on vaccine quantity far below their population. The living with virus approach undoubtedly will lead to a higher transmission rate across borders as well as virus mutation rate. When the virus Delta evolves into a not only highly contagious but also more deadly mutant then people from these less developed countries is doomed. It is just a big joke on UN's declaration that “all human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights.” Let alone dignity, in reality some people always enjoy more rights while some others are deprived from even right to survive.

Unlike those poor countries where vaccine quantity available is far below from their population, ironically some people in the rich countries are resistant to vaccination. Apart from some who are allergic to vaccine or whose conditions are too vulnerable, for one reason or another like suspicious on the vaccine safety or the quest on the respect of their choice, there are quite some in the rich countries do not want to get their jabs. Therefore domestically there are also devision between vaccinated and unvaccinated in these countries. Disregard the reason of these unvaccinated people, Their life are at risk anyway when their countries adopt the living with virus approach because there are increasing vaccinated yet infected people spreading the virus around more than ever. It is fair enough for those who choose no jabs on their own but for those who are just unable to be vaccinated, such approach is nothing different from hanging their life on a thread.

While those adventurous nations are in trial of the risky bet of living with virus approach, many others are watching closely on the outcome. Frankly speaking time is not at their side because their economies are suffering badly from the containment approach. They are desparate for a wayout to resurgence. This is particularly true for those deomcratic countries where people tend to vote out an administration which fails to bring the ecomomy around. The governments in these countries most likely cannot help to bet on such approach at the expense of the unvaccinated.

Vaccine used to bring the hope of the light at the end of tunnel but when its halo fades, people realize that possibly the ordeal is far from over.

Where do you draw the line?

In the last weekend I watched an old movie, A Few Good Men, which was casted by Tom Cruise and Jack Nicholson. The story was about two Marines who were charged with murder on their fellow in the naval base camp in Guantanamo Bay. The two Marines assualted the fellow under an extrajudicial punishment in that base camp on soldiers whom made mistakes and they did that under the order by the base commander via the soldiers' superior's instruction in an unofficial manner and off record. The punishement accidentally led to the death of the victim. The two soldiers were trialed in the court-martial and Cruise was their trial lawyer.

As a movie, after twists and turns Cruise finally succeeded to defend the soldiers from the charge of murder because their simply performed an order from the superior whom in turn received instruction from the commander. People must be aware that an order from superior is absolute in places like millitary camp where obidience is everything. To defend the soldiers from their charges Cruise cleverly guided the commander to admit in the trial that it was him whom gave the order. The commander was held responsible and arrested for the death of his soldier due to his instruction of the extrajudicial  punishment. The movie is with Hollywood's usual formula that justice will be served and bad guys will be held accountable on their wrong-doings. The title of the movie is self-explanatory and Cruise and his team are these good men. Again as a movie, the ending of the movie is commercially uplifting because it meets people's quest for justice. The innocents were freed and the bad guys tasted his own medicine. 

In the movie Cruise was protraited as good man while Nicholson, the commander, a bad guy. In real life world it is not that simple and straight foward though. Cruise was a good man because he helped the innocent soldiers while Nicholson was bad because he managed his camp in stringent millitary dicipline. He gave the order of punishment to the victim because the latter went over the chain of command to peach his fellow to the HQ in exchange of his transfer out from the camp. This move pissed his commander off. 

The movie focused on the commander's responsibility of giving the punishment order which indirectly led to the death of the victim, I view the case with another perspective though. Cruise, an hero in the movie, brought a naval base commander to jail. Did he really preserve the justice? Meanwhile did he preserve the country's interests when he brought a commander whom played an important role in protecting the country into jail? As a lawyer in the movie, Cruise did his job successfully to defend his clients, the two Marines and did it beautifully. However, as such the country lost a naval commander despite whom did made mistake in giving the order. 

To further expand the scenario, in the movie the incident happened in the peace time so perhaps it did not significantly impact the level of national defence by putting an naval commander behind bars but what if the same commander did the same thing but in the time when the country was in war with rival nation? Will the loss of the nation as a whole outweigh the preservation of justice? What if the country loses in the war because of the absence of the commander? Will the same lawyer that preserves justice still be an hero in such case? If justice can be compromised because the commander is indispensable in war time then is justice something negotiable?

Where do you draw the line?

 

 

A weird day

 

This post is deliberately uploaded after the weird day in the calendar that only exists in a nonsense place under the nonsense regime to avoid the potential infringement of a nonsense law.

Nowhere else in the world where this particular date exists as 35th of May in the calendars in its territory. Sadly a small but renown island joined this nonsense place in this year. 

People in the Island was doing the same thing over the 31 years in the memorial of a tragedy happened on that day in a far away city 32 years ago. It became illegal and is strictly prohibited only starting from this year. The most ridiculous thing was that even people did not attend the prohibited assembly but wearing the specific attire or holding a lit candle in other locations would still be deemed as advocate of that assembly therefore would subject to arrest. Coercion of arrest and prosecution spread a white terror.

The autocratic regime might has thought it succeeded in making that incident to be out of sight, out of mind. Yet coercion is a double-edged sword per se. Coercion can stop people from making action or speech but it can never stop people from thinking. On the other hand, not doing or saying does not mean people will forget. Grievance will only grow stronger under coercion and it will just become a ticking time-bomb. 

Many nations made mistakes along their history. Only those who are brave enough to face their mistake and sincerely appologize for their wrong-doing can earn the respect from the world. Those who fail to do that no matter how strong its economy is, it remains a coward or at worst a rogue in nature whom is teased by the world.

People will not forget.

Killing two birds with one stone

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With the passage of the electoral reform on the HKSAR's elections in the National People Congress's standing committee meeting back a while ago, the whole electoral tradition and the political landscape in Hong Kong is going to change fundamentally, for good.

There are many ways to get the details of the Reform for people whom are really interested in it. In a nutshell, Beijing made many changes in the electoral system in the HKSAR to achieve the so-called Administering Hong Kong by Patriots by primarily screening out the candidates from the opposition camp through the reform on the nomination committee so that these candidates' nomination is a mission impossible in the first place. The aim is further secured by the newly formed candidates qualification censoring committee which members are the high officials in the HKSAR administration. Any opposition camp candidates who are so lucky to get enough nomination will then be kicked away by the Committee so they will never get an entrance ticket to run any elections, say for the District Councils or for the HKSAR Chief Exective. 

Local commentators mainly focus on the above affect on the opposition camp and perhaps it was so well camouflaged that Beijing's intention of killing two birds with one stone was concealed. Naturally sweeping the opposition from the institutional structure is one the of bird that Beijing is keen to kill, however, there is yet another one which Beijing wanted to get rid of all along, ie., the locally grown big masters namely the property developer tycoons. 

Among the changes on the constitution of the nomination committee, apart from the merger or even removal of the sectors which are opposition camp dominated, there is also shrinkage on the seats from the local business sector. Local business sector has been enjoying a big influence on the policies of the HKSAR's adminstration all along especially at the beginning of the reunion of Hong Kong to China. In their hey days, the big four local property developer families and with their backed Chief Executive, Donald Tsang, acted almost like the quasi CE in the HKSAR administration. It is also in Tsang's administration period basically there was no plan at all on the new land formation which in return led to the severe housing supply shortage in the following years to come. This problem became one of the deep-seated conflicts which the Hong Kong society as a whole is still facing as well as the huge profit for these property developer families. 

The situation did not go without Beijing's awareness but she relied on these big masters to help maintain Hong Kong's stability especially the economic stability which was mainly under the control of the Big Fours, let alone China's economic strength back 15 years ago was not as high as it is now. Everybody who knows the characteristic of the CCP knows that Deng Xiaoping, China's modern political architect, who has laid a national policy to hold the temper for the sake of economic development first. Beijing was just waiting for the right time when she is strong enough to stand on her feet and shake off the reliance on the Big Fours.

In fact Beijing's plan was not unnoticed, at least the Hong Kong's wealthiest person, nicked name Superman Li, did know what the game is all about. Li is known as the smartest businessman in Hong Kong and he is so knowledgeable and well known for his sharp vision over the global as well as local political and economic future developments. Li also knows the CCP's traditional characteristic of kicking away the used ladders as what they did to those partriotic capitalists after the founding of the new red China back 60 years ago. He has started the divesting from Hong Kong almost a decade ago and diversified an heavy investment in the U.K. instead. People might admire Li's foresight and insight when they see what happened on Alibaba in China now. See my earlier post Ant-man has been taken down

Under the CCP's ruling, any potential threat to its governing must be removed. It is only a matter of time if it has not happened yet. 

 

It is still Hong Kong, or is it?

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It's been almost two months that the Blog was not updated. Partly because I was busy on personal affair but mostly due to the concern over personal security that a prudent examination on the enactment of the Hong Kong version of National Security Law(NSL) here in Hong Kong is necessary. 

A drastic change on Bejing's attitude towards the pandemocratic camp figures since the beginning of this year was seen. A massive arrest on those figures whom have taken part into the 2020 pro-democracy primaries which aimed to narrow down the candidates list for the Legco general election which was supposed to be held in last September but was proponed by a year under the excuse of the epidemic. The accusation is that the Primiries is the action of subversion of the Adiministration in HK and the Regime therefore an violation of the NSL.

Naturally the accusation is controversial depending one's stance. Anyway, the beauty of being in power is that law is interpreted as the regime's will, let alone an autocratic one. On the other hand, this is the bonus of the effective containment of the epidemic in China who gained much confidence over the polarity on the economic development between her and her western counterparts so she can do whatever she wants at will blatantly with little worry about the reaction of the latter.

On the other hand, Beijing reiterates Hong Kong's affair is domestic issue so she has absolute discretion over the running on Hong Kong. As a matter of fact this statement is damn right that Hong Kong is part of China so arresting those whom are accused with involvement of subversion on the regime is completely lawful. The definition of the actions relating to subversion under the Law is controversial though.

Alongside with the massive arrest, during the China National People Congress meeting which is being held in Beijing now that motion has been raised to reform the Legco Election Committee in a large extent. The reform is meant to exclude any dissident the chance of being a lawmaker, or not even a candidate, for the coming Legco general election in this year. All in all heavy-handed measures were or going to be implemented just for the sake to eradicate the root of opposition out of Hong Kong, in name of administering Hong Kong by patriots. 

This is by far the most massive crackdown on the opposition after Hong Kong's reunion to China yet the main street is calm, or indifferent, leaving Beijing's mouthpieces doing their propaganda alone.  Apparently the NSL has achieved the intended chilling effect as the public has learned the way for self-protection under power.

Propaganda says Hong Kong returned to orderly from chaos due to the NSL. Yet the peace appears at the surface is indeed with an unrest undercurrent beneath it. The silence is the just result of authority which can suppress the expression of will but fails to stop the minds from forming. Most of the HongKongers are not keen in politics but many of them do not buy the political system in the North as well. However, many traces gave away telltales that Hong Kong is really integrating with China, livelihood as well as political system. 

The general public especially the grass-root is silence because they know they are bounded to stay and this is the only preservation to stay afloat under the authority. However, for those who are above average they have more alternatives. It is evidenced that quite a number of nations not only have extended their friendly attitude but some substantial measures to cater to the worry of the Hong Kong people. Naturally critiques or conspiracy comments are nothing short of from the propaganda again. To be honest, most of these potential citizens are top of the cream so welcome doors opened to them is nothing but just normal in the sense of mutual benefit.

Immigration is not cheap so those who are qualified are usually those sought after talents wanted by whatever countries no matter the east or west. America is the best showcase to examplify how the inflow of talents and capital can boost a country. Sadly these talents will just turn their back to their motherland but just fled to assist the counterpart due to politics.

Apart from the case of America, Hong Kong is renowned with its past achievement of economic success out from a formerly fishing village due to the influx of migrants and capital in exile before the red China was founded. It was talents that make this miracle happened. Perhaps China does not worry about the brain-drain because there are plenty supply from the north. In fact, there has been scheme introducing expertises from China in place all along. As a matter of fact those mostly western values-contaminated talents are anti-communism which is dyed in the wool.  It is not a bad idea to rinse Hong Kong with heavy-handed measures.

After all, One Country Two Systems is just a slogan and no matter the previously advocated Administering Hong Kong by HongKongers or the lastest version Administering Hong Kong by patriots are merely propaganda. What China needs Hong Kong to be is just a name claimed to be different from the autocratic regime so it can help facilitating between the regime and the western world for the sake of capital and technologies. It does not really matter who are living there and who are running it. As long as it is still called Hong Kong.

Or is it?

Light at the end of tunnel?

The most talk about issue locally here in Hong Kong remains the epidemic and the vaccine in the pipeline. With the absence of the dictatorship type of containment measures that is practiced in China, the western world as well as the democratic countries in Asia including Hong Kong are still struggling on the recent wave of the novel coronavirus. With the recent delivery of the vaccine, the whole world just sees the vaccine as the silver bullet to the dilemma as well as the economic resurgence. It seems as long as the vaccine is widely available to the general public then life will resume to normal so will the economy be.

Maintaining hope in life is important as to the drive to overcome difficulties, looking through rose-tinted glasses might bring more bad than good though. Let alone whether the so far major three vaccines available are proven to be effective is still not yet clinically certified, in fact none of them has finished the phrase III testing. The vaccine efficacy rate are all self claimed by the producers only. The most important point remains none of the producer is able to confirm the length of protection, even if the self-claimed efficacy rate is really valid. 

The whole world is forced to gamble on the effectiveness of these vaccines, sadly the price is that a vast numbers of people is to be the guinea pigs. According to the news, the vaccines do not have the supposed reception from the general public and this comes with good reason because despite the immediate serious side-effect rate after the vaccination so far is not high but since these vaccines have yet finished the normal and official testing process, the risks on the long term side-effect cannot be ruled out. 

The other concern on these vaccines is that the protection is unlike the other previously proven ones for other diseases that they can provide a comprehensive protection like immunity to infection and stops transmission even if infected, these three vaccines are not capable to stop transmission, at least no confirmation has ever made by the producers. Therefore even people take risk to be vaccinated yet the transmission chain will not be broken even if many people are vaccinated because the best self-claimed efficacy rate is 95% by the Pfiser followed by 94.1% by Moderna while Sinovac's has only 79% as self-claimed figure. Those infected even after vaccination can keep transmitting the disease unknowingly.

In a nutshell, resting the hope on the vaccine that it can end the pandemic thus the world can resume to normal and the world economy resurgence is just a wishful thinking. Let alone in reality people from the poor countries will not have access to vaccination so even if there is full vaccination in the rich countries the global transmission chain will never end indeed. The most optimistic forecast can only be the domestic resumption to normal within the rich countries on the basis that there is a nationwide full vaccination which is another wishful thinking.

On the other hand, while the whole world is putting its hope on the vaccine but it seems only little concern was put on the fact that vaccination is just a race against the viruses/germs because these microbes are constantly evolving and most of all, at a very fast rate which is way faster than the human's ability on vaccines development. In fact there were already more than 20 mutations found just in U.K. alone. Naturally not all mutations could bring more serious symptom or even more deadly but it is not whether or not but just a matter of time that a more deadly mutation is for sure in the pipeline as whether the more future mutations will become more friendly or deadly is just a random chance. Therefore chances are that before the western rich nations can achieve enough herd immunity through vaccination on their people, the Virus could has already mutated into a variation that the current vaccines are no longer protective leading the previous effort in vain. Let alone those poor nations are even not vaccinated due to financial constrain.

Higher the expectation, bigger disappointment will be when things turn out otherwise. As Trump's famous saying, we'll wait and see.

Who is going to laugh till the end?

 He said it at last.

In yesterday Trump responded to the reporter during the Thanksgiving appearance in the White House that if the Electors choose Biden to be the next President of the U.S.A. in their voting on the 14th in next month then he will leave the White House.

The Biden camp burst into euphoria when vote counting revealed that Biden's ballot outnumbered that of Trump's. The media even claimed that Biden has won the election few days after the voting ended. Biden was a bit reserved on the outcome and did not declare victory only till the 8th when the vote count in Pennsylvania and Georgia showed that they are in Biden's favour. 

On the other hand, Trump insists that the election was rigged and has never conceded failure even now. He has been saying to fight for the justice via legal action. Trump said it in the Tweeter many times. 

Despite earlier quite a few nations like the France, the U.K., Canada, China, German, Saudi, Australia...etc have congratulated Biden becoming the president-elected yet the transition between the two administrations has not started only after the General Services Administration(GSA) confirmed it under the letter to Biden three days ago.

After Biden's declaration and the endorsement of GSA, the world, or at least most of it, thought that the president-elected is by right becoming the next president. Or is it?

Why so asked?

Because Trump said he would fight via legal action? Nope. Despite Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania have rejected the cases but that is not the key point. In fact, It is only Trump's tactic in dealing with the public. Legal action is merely a cover up for the true action behind the scene. He knows something that you guys don't, or be misled with. Being the president as well as the player of this election game, he knows what matters and what don't. And he revealed to you guys in yesterday. He is waiting for the voting of the Electoral College.

In fact in my earlier post Does it really matter?  I already mentioned it. The general public, at least many American, thinks that the election happened on the Nov 3 decided who the next president would be and they think their votes made that happened. They are damn wrong though. Americans are misled by a deliberate illusion. Their voting is just a beautiful misleading to make them believe that they enjoy the democracy to choose their president. There are in fact other king-makers behind the curtain. 

Trump knows it all. He does not care about American's votes. Nor does he care about the GSA's decision. These are not the determinant. I say it again. He is waiting for the voting of the Electoral College. They are the true king-makers.

The design of the election system is that when the Electors judge that the popular vote does not reflect the best interest to the country, upon their conscience they can cast their vote otherwise. Now the trick is that Trump said the election was rigged. He claimed there were many frauds in the mailing ballots. The accusation leaves much room for the Electors to exercise their conscience. 

In my another post Politics is cruel?  I said politics is all about parceling out interests. There is nothing more political than is the presidential election especially that for the U.S. President. One must be super naive if s/he really thinks that the Electors will cast their votes solely upon their conscience when facing such a big controversy. S/he must also be ultra stupid to think there is no solicitation upon these electors now. Needless to say, there must be enormous bargaining happening right now behind the curtain till the December 14. People should not forget that there were five popular vote winners did not win the presidency along the American history. In fact Trump himself was exactly the beneficiary of such system which he actually lost the popular vote in 2016 but won the electoral vote. So he knows most what matters.

Who is going to laugh till the end? As what Trump always said, we'll wait and see.

It's all up to you now, guys

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A political nuclear bomb exploded here in Hong Kong in yesterday. Following the passage on the qualification on the Legco lawmakers by the standing committee of the China's People Congress, the Hong Kong government immediately declared that four lawmakers in the opposition camp were disqualified with immediate effect. Meanwhile, all the 15 remaining pan-democratic camp lawmakers announced their resignation resulting from such action from the Hong Kong government.

Some may say this is something like the tsunami following the 10 scale seabed earthquake in politics. Or is it?

The main street seems not much be concerned nor did the Hong Kong bourse react on it. This is rather eerie though, contrasting with the public's fierce reaction arising from the motion on the extradition bill by the Hong Kong government in last year. Apparently the general public has learned something. So what did they learn?

First of all, people know that the Legco is part of the regime. Opposition within the Legco against the administration apparently will not pay off. In fact, the opposition camp lawmakers have never really made any ground-breaking success in altering the Hong Kong government's main theme of China-isation. What they could do were filibustering during the Legco meetings, adjourning the meetings via insufficient presence of lawmakers. Being minority actually there is really not much substantive they could do. Having an opposition voice in the Legco seems to be symbolic more than substantive. It is not a true regret that all the opposition camp withdrew from being a backcloth which the Hong Kong government can use as the existence of democracy or the exhibition of the liveness of the so-called "One country, Two systems".

Secondly, people learn the true meaning of the frequent statement made by the Hong Kong government's officials that Hong Kong is an non-alienable part of China. They know that China's rules of game finally will, or have already? cast on Hong Kong. With the table turned, Hong Kong has evolved from the guiding role of China's modernization to the seeker of the preferential treatments from the central government. When guts has become the word of the past, people are also pragmatic and realistic on their stand.

On the other hand, with the successful containment of the novel corona virus vs the latest outbreak again in the western world, followed by the economic influence table-turning, China has gained much courage and confidence towards its once big brothers counterpart. The vision of the Rise of the Big Nation is getting closer and closer. China not only can say no but can do it as well. Compound with the decoupling which further leaves no hope on the harmony with the West, China dares to do what she likes at will blatantly and in broad daylight. 

So what happened in Hong Kong in yesterday is not something unexpected. This is just something along the script. People will not be surprised when something else similar are coming down the line. In fact, the recent trend in Hong Kong's development doesn't come without any practical point. With the dust and mist settled, a clear road path on Hong Kong's future is visionable. It will become part of China, as what people can see in many other cities in China. The Two Systems will become only a talk when China uses Hong Kong to deal with the West on bypassing the sanction or whatever inconvenience which the Mainland faces. Domestically people here in Hong Kong can expect everything will be same as what their Mainland fellow is facing with. 

Now, it is all up to you on how to deal with it for you and your families. Guys.

Ant-Man has been taken down!

Forgive my lousy gag and accept my apologize to the fans of Ant-Man. In fact this post absolutely has nothing to do with the Marvel's character, Ant-Man. It is solely a joke on the subject because the China fintech company, Ant (Group), did get into trouble on its IPO in China and Hong Kong bourse thus the Man, Jack Ma, behind the Ant did get trapped with some headache.

While the ballot counting on the farce of the U.S. presidential election is still going on, perhaps equal attention has been drawn on another farce of the abrupt suspension of the IPO of the Ant Group here in Hong Kong, and in China as well. It was said that there were more than 1.5 millions subscribers on the IPO so it potentially became the talk of the town. It is abrupt because the suspension was called in two days prior to its intended listing day. It is a farce because the suspension was due to the supervisory bureau's sudden awareness, just prior to the IPO, that the business model of Ant Group has potential great threat to China's financial stability.

It is absolutely correct and legitimate to suspend the Ant's IPO if its business model is hazardous. However, the Ant has been working on such business model for years and its IPO application should has been scrutinized by the related supervisory bureau well ahead of the intended listing day. It is impossible that the Bureau only noticed such potential threat two days prior to the listing. Nor the Ant's business model evolved into a great threat to China's financial stability within days after the approval of IPO by the Bureau. Yet the farce happened and perhaps it is the only possible in a nation with China characteristic. 

A farce may be but it did happen with its context. The Ant Group is China's rising fintech company whose major owner, Ma Yun, is the nation's richest man now. Ma is also the owner of China's largest online shopping platform, Alibaba which is listed in the U.S. and Hong Kong and it is commonly regarded as a private company. Being the largest online shopping platform, Alibaba has enormous influential power in China's economy because there are tens of thousand SMEs selling their products in its platform and behind these tens of thousands SMEs and together with their suppliers there are tens of millions workforce engaged and feeding the same amount of families. Alibaba's annual turnover is also gigantic so its operation is about the make or break of the economic as well social stability in China. 

With so much in stake, Ma and his companies become so important to the ruling of the country that the CCP cannot sleep well without a full control on them. Yet officially Ma's companies are privately owned. It is still alright if Ma is fully obedient to the governance but he is so daring to make criticism saying that there is no financial systematic risk in China because there is no system in the first place during a public speech in last month. This is just too rebellion that he cannot be tolerated in the CCP's eye. This is the trigger which most commentators commonly see it why the Ant Group's IPO was suspended.

Perhaps Ma's recent speech did cause the CCP's dissatisfaction but this move should not be the main reason because despite such speech did slam the financial bureau's face but it does not bring material threat to the ruling of CCP. It is Ant's business nature that matters. Traditionally China's lending market is dominated by the state-owned-banks(SOB) and through these SOBs the CCP controls which business sectors and which corporations can be funded to maneuver its financial and economic policies. Such ability is equally important to the firm control over its army for the CCP's ruling on the nation.

The rising of the fintech companies like the Ant Group is an undermining of CCP's such ability. The Ant's lending is mainly to the SMEs and the individuals though. The borrowings from these SMEs and individuals are much smaller than those from the state-owned-corporations but they are vast in numbers. Despite the total lending amount which was taken by the Ant from the SOBs does not really endanger the latter but who will be happy to see one's business is shared by someone else especially when the business climate is not good? The Ant has hurt the interests of the beneficiary controlling families behind the SOBs. 

On the other hand, Alibaba together with the Ant, one focuses on the marketing and the other one on the financing just forms a business empire putting a vast numbers of SMEs and the people related under its umbrella. This business empire could become a formidable force which can rock the governance of the nation, especially when the leader of the business empire is too bold. 

This Ant must be taken down! 

Then what about the Man?

Does it really matter?

As October is drawing to its end the whole world is looking forward to seeing the biggest event that is going to happen in this early November. Yes, you got it right, the U.S. presidential election. It is important not only to the U.S. and the Americans but to most parts of the world as well because with Trump has stirred the world as well as the U.S. itself upside down in the past four years so people just wonder whether this guy is going to win another term of four years and keeps stirring the world, especially amid the pandemic.

The polling is going to end on November 3 local time so most people think it is the decisive day on the presidency. However, those who know know that November 3 is only last day of the polling by the Americans but actually they do not have the right to vote for their president. It is only the electors in the Electoral College have this right. They are the ones who are really going to decide who is going to be the president of the U.S. and their voting happen on December 14 only so it is more than one good month later than November 3. 

Customary and usually the Electors should align their vote with the popular vote, ie., the wish of the general Americans in their states to cast their own vote but it is not strictly legal bidding. That is to say, the vote from the general Americans does not necessarily reflect the result of the election even if a candidate has won a majority of ballots on November 3. The result on December 14 after the electoral college voting is after all the real one. The fact is that electors' vote could be contrary to the popular vote in their states. So folks, just forget the date of November 3 which is just a show of democracy only.

Despite the U.S. is the largest democracy country in the world but judging from its indirect election system, the so-called one person, one vote, is actually a counterfeit. The establishment of the electoral college was actually a big scam to the general Americans and it was done in purpose by the founders of the then newly formed nation. Everybody know that the U.S. was once the colony of the British Empire prior to its independence. After fighting eight years with their original sovereign nation, the colonists finally won the war to form a new born nation. Most of the founders who were responsible for drafting the constitution were lawyers. 

Contrary to most of their fellow who were farmers and laborers that were mostly illiterate, these lawyers were well educated and astute. They engineered the constitution which is in favour to these elites by designing the indirect election system via the establishment of electoral college. The system prevents the general mass, due to their numbers, from electing an inappropriate president under the simple one person, one vote, election system especially when the overall education level of the general mass was still very low thus prone to stupid and emotional decision.

The original intention of the electoral college might sound reasonable under the particular context at that time. However, this system remains unchanged even after two centuries and the general mass of Americans have already received education and most of them are sensible enough to pick their president. Yet, their right is still deprived despite of the name of leader of the democracy world. What an irony!

In fact, it is not only the problem of the crippled election system but the faulty institution to be blamed. Under the current political context in the U.S. that with the oligopoly of the Republic Party and Democratic Party so the Americans are only subjected to a choice of lesser evil when choosing their president. After all, the president of the U.S.A. is only a front stage figurehead of the political party which he represents. The point is that both of these two parties are for the interests of their respective vested interests groups only. None of them is really the guardian of the general mass of the Americans. So does the election really matter to you, Americans?