Light at the end of tunnel?(2)

In the post with the same title light-at-end-of-tunnelwritten at the turn of this year I was not optimistic on the hopes(dream?) resting on the vaccines which were just put in the market. Eight months have passed since then and unfortunately things just happened exactly as I mentioned in the previous post. 

Not only an high herd immunity arising from high vacination rate among the developed countries like the U.S. and the U.K. is yet achieved, on the other hand a high contagious mutant virus, Delta, do exist as forecasted, luckily not as deadly as mentioned though. The even worse news is that more and more people even fully vaccinated with two jabs were found infected and at the same time constagious to other people. The hypothesis of herd immunity seems at the brink of collapse. The hope so far on the vaccination is only the protection against the mortality rate. Therefore countries like the U.K. and Singapore detour their strategy to live with the virus rather than a strict containment or even elimination in their soil. People argue that such approach is a bold bet. In fact such bet is just at the expense of those who are vulnerable to vaccination due to allergy or other unfit conditions. They are more likely to be infected then die from complication because of a higher vaccinated yet infected population walking around them.

The approach of living with virus devides the world between vaccinated and unvaccinated, domestically and internationally. It is quite clear in the international aspect on this devision, those rich countries are talking about the third boost jab on their nationals while many poor countries are desperate on vaccine quantity far below their population. The living with virus approach undoubtedly will lead to a higher transmission rate across borders as well as virus mutation rate. When the virus Delta evolves into a not only highly contagious but also more deadly mutant then people from these less developed countries is doomed. It is just a big joke on UN's declaration that “all human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights.” Let alone dignity, in reality some people always enjoy more rights while some others are deprived from even right to survive.

Unlike those poor countries where vaccine quantity available is far below from their population, ironically some people in the rich countries are resistant to vaccination. Apart from some who are allergic to vaccine or whose conditions are too vulnerable, for one reason or another like suspicious on the vaccine safety or the quest on the respect of their choice, there are quite some in the rich countries do not want to get their jabs. Therefore domestically there are also devision between vaccinated and unvaccinated in these countries. Disregard the reason of these unvaccinated people, Their life are at risk anyway when their countries adopt the living with virus approach because there are increasing vaccinated yet infected people spreading the virus around more than ever. It is fair enough for those who choose no jabs on their own but for those who are just unable to be vaccinated, such approach is nothing different from hanging their life on a thread.

While those adventurous nations are in trial of the risky bet of living with virus approach, many others are watching closely on the outcome. Frankly speaking time is not at their side because their economies are suffering badly from the containment approach. They are desparate for a wayout to resurgence. This is particularly true for those deomcratic countries where people tend to vote out an administration which fails to bring the ecomomy around. The governments in these countries most likely cannot help to bet on such approach at the expense of the unvaccinated.

Vaccine used to bring the hope of the light at the end of tunnel but when its halo fades, people realize that possibly the ordeal is far from over.

Light at the end of tunnel?

The most talk about issue locally here in Hong Kong remains the epidemic and the vaccine in the pipeline. With the absence of the dictatorship type of containment measures that is practiced in China, the western world as well as the democratic countries in Asia including Hong Kong are still struggling on the recent wave of the novel coronavirus. With the recent delivery of the vaccine, the whole world just sees the vaccine as the silver bullet to the dilemma as well as the economic resurgence. It seems as long as the vaccine is widely available to the general public then life will resume to normal so will the economy be.

Maintaining hope in life is important as to the drive to overcome difficulties, looking through rose-tinted glasses might bring more bad than good though. Let alone whether the so far major three vaccines available are proven to be effective is still not yet clinically certified, in fact none of them has finished the phrase III testing. The vaccine efficacy rate are all self claimed by the producers only. The most important point remains none of the producer is able to confirm the length of protection, even if the self-claimed efficacy rate is really valid. 

The whole world is forced to gamble on the effectiveness of these vaccines, sadly the price is that a vast numbers of people is to be the guinea pigs. According to the news, the vaccines do not have the supposed reception from the general public and this comes with good reason because despite the immediate serious side-effect rate after the vaccination so far is not high but since these vaccines have yet finished the normal and official testing process, the risks on the long term side-effect cannot be ruled out. 

The other concern on these vaccines is that the protection is unlike the other previously proven ones for other diseases that they can provide a comprehensive protection like immunity to infection and stops transmission even if infected, these three vaccines are not capable to stop transmission, at least no confirmation has ever made by the producers. Therefore even people take risk to be vaccinated yet the transmission chain will not be broken even if many people are vaccinated because the best self-claimed efficacy rate is 95% by the Pfiser followed by 94.1% by Moderna while Sinovac's has only 79% as self-claimed figure. Those infected even after vaccination can keep transmitting the disease unknowingly.

In a nutshell, resting the hope on the vaccine that it can end the pandemic thus the world can resume to normal and the world economy resurgence is just a wishful thinking. Let alone in reality people from the poor countries will not have access to vaccination so even if there is full vaccination in the rich countries the global transmission chain will never end indeed. The most optimistic forecast can only be the domestic resumption to normal within the rich countries on the basis that there is a nationwide full vaccination which is another wishful thinking.

On the other hand, while the whole world is putting its hope on the vaccine but it seems only little concern was put on the fact that vaccination is just a race against the viruses/germs because these microbes are constantly evolving and most of all, at a very fast rate which is way faster than the human's ability on vaccines development. In fact there were already more than 20 mutations found just in U.K. alone. Naturally not all mutations could bring more serious symptom or even more deadly but it is not whether or not but just a matter of time that a more deadly mutation is for sure in the pipeline as whether the more future mutations will become more friendly or deadly is just a random chance. Therefore chances are that before the western rich nations can achieve enough herd immunity through vaccination on their people, the Virus could has already mutated into a variation that the current vaccines are no longer protective leading the previous effort in vain. Let alone those poor nations are even not vaccinated due to financial constrain.

Higher the expectation, bigger disappointment will be when things turn out otherwise. As Trump's famous saying, we'll wait and see.