It's all up to you now, guys

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A political nuclear bomb exploded here in Hong Kong in yesterday. Following the passage on the qualification on the Legco lawmakers by the standing committee of the China's People Congress, the Hong Kong government immediately declared that four lawmakers in the opposition camp were disqualified with immediate effect. Meanwhile, all the 15 remaining pan-democratic camp lawmakers announced their resignation resulting from such action from the Hong Kong government.

Some may say this is something like the tsunami following the 10 scale seabed earthquake in politics. Or is it?

The main street seems not much be concerned nor did the Hong Kong bourse react on it. This is rather eerie though, contrasting with the public's fierce reaction arising from the motion on the extradition bill by the Hong Kong government in last year. Apparently the general public has learned something. So what did they learn?

First of all, people know that the Legco is part of the regime. Opposition within the Legco against the administration apparently will not pay off. In fact, the opposition camp lawmakers have never really made any ground-breaking success in altering the Hong Kong government's main theme of China-isation. What they could do were filibustering during the Legco meetings, adjourning the meetings via insufficient presence of lawmakers. Being minority actually there is really not much substantive they could do. Having an opposition voice in the Legco seems to be symbolic more than substantive. It is not a true regret that all the opposition camp withdrew from being a backcloth which the Hong Kong government can use as the existence of democracy or the exhibition of the liveness of the so-called "One country, Two systems".

Secondly, people learn the true meaning of the frequent statement made by the Hong Kong government's officials that Hong Kong is an non-alienable part of China. They know that China's rules of game finally will, or have already? cast on Hong Kong. With the table turned, Hong Kong has evolved from the guiding role of China's modernization to the seeker of the preferential treatments from the central government. When guts has become the word of the past, people are also pragmatic and realistic on their stand.

On the other hand, with the successful containment of the novel corona virus vs the latest outbreak again in the western world, followed by the economic influence table-turning, China has gained much courage and confidence towards its once big brothers counterpart. The vision of the Rise of the Big Nation is getting closer and closer. China not only can say no but can do it as well. Compound with the decoupling which further leaves no hope on the harmony with the West, China dares to do what she likes at will blatantly and in broad daylight. 

So what happened in Hong Kong in yesterday is not something unexpected. This is just something along the script. People will not be surprised when something else similar are coming down the line. In fact, the recent trend in Hong Kong's development doesn't come without any practical point. With the dust and mist settled, a clear road path on Hong Kong's future is visionable. It will become part of China, as what people can see in many other cities in China. The Two Systems will become only a talk when China uses Hong Kong to deal with the West on bypassing the sanction or whatever inconvenience which the Mainland faces. Domestically people here in Hong Kong can expect everything will be same as what their Mainland fellow is facing with. 

Now, it is all up to you on how to deal with it for you and your families. Guys.

Her days are numbered(3)

Following the District Council election in last weekend and the pan-democratic camp's overwhelming success, Hong Kong finally enjoys a few days of calmness so far. The outcome of the polling was out of expectation and also as expected in the sense that the result was actually a big No to the government which was expected, the victory was much better than expectation though.

However, things happened before the election were really nasty. Hong Kong has literally turned into a war zone especially at the Chinese University and Polytechnics University. Days of battle between the riot police and the defenders made Hong Kong "famous" again. The island is an international city and renowned for many things like good food, shopping or fun land of money adventurers ...etc. People around the world at least heard about Hong Kong's name even if he/she knows nothing about it. Thanks to Carrie Lam, the CE of HKSAR com most "successful" disservice salesperson for Hong Kong, that this island is getting more and more well known in the international community but unfortunately against its reputation.

The social unrest, originated from Lam's stupidity and arrogance on the maneuver of the extradition bill proposal. This social movement not only directly led to the total failure of the pro-establishment camp in the district council election but literally rendered Hong Kong as a bargaining chip for Trump in the trade deal negotiation with China. This mistake out-weight all those mistakes made by any of her predecessors. People has been gossiping if Lam can survive till the end of her first term. It seems the CE of HKSAR are cursed so her all three predecessors could not complete their appointments. Therefore people speculate Lam will end up the same as them and people did that for good reason. All the three former CEs have done something different but the common point were extremely unwelcome by the public. Despite the things they did were different but all yielded the massive protests among the public. At the end of the day they all stepped down with different excuses, and apparently under Beijing's idea.

Some may still argue that the state chairman, Xi Jinping, has just openly recognized the work by Lam and her administration recently. It seems Beijing is still supportive to her but people should not forget all the three former CEs also received this kind of recognition from Beijing amid the overwhelming pubic criticism prior to their stepping down. The mess created by Lam now is way bigger than those by her predecessors so her punishment in more or less the same pattern seems to be unavoidable.

For people who know the practice of the sacking of any senior management member understand that unless the one is involved in criminal offense, the replacement will not happen right away despite very serious mistake is committed. Most of the cases it takes time to find the suitable candidate. On the other hand, a smooth transition is sought after for the sake of operation. Indeed finding one who is willing to shoulder the responsibility amid the chaos is extremely difficult, if not possible. If the recent calmness can last finally then it could be somehow easier to find the white knight to take up the challenge.

Everyone here in Hong Kong is longing for the calmness not only for the peaceful livelihood but hoping to see the end of the sinner of the chaos. In fact, it became quite clear, after the polling result, to the sinner's master that they can either put an even stronger suppression on the people's opinion or resort to a policy adjustment fine-tuned to the reality happening here in Hong Kong. Apparently the former is not the option available to Beijing considering the current situation so the sacrifice of a stooge is out of question.

Unlock (2)

In my previous post with the same title I mentioned that the protestors' strategy is to disturb Hong Kong's economy so that the business sector is hit as such they will apply pressure on Lam's administration for solution as a result hoping Lam will back off.

Today Hong Kong's richest man tycoon Li Ka Shing has made a full front page ad in a few newspapers expressing his concern over the development of the anti-extradition movement so far. The ad came into two versions. While one of them is rather "conventional" urging no more violence but the other version is quite interesting with much undertone and implication within it.

The content of the right hand side ad is quoted from a sentence from an ancient Chinese poem. The background of the poem is that during a monarchy struggle the queen killed her son and planned to kill another one as well. In the poem this victim expressed his sorrow with an analogy of the overharvested crop just cannot stand any more picking that how come his mother was so cruel on her offspring killing them one after another.

Some said tycoon Li has already used the same citation during the chaos in the Occupy Central Movement in 2016 so he just used it again in this event with similar scenario. However, one must know tycoon Li is with super extraordinary high wisdom. Everything he did carries a meaning and serves a specific purpose. The two ads apparently address to two different categories of audiences. The conventional one on the left is straight forward and explicit without twist, simply no more violence while targeted audience certainly includes protestors but perhaps police as well.


The choice of the citation in the ad on the left is apparently more subtle in meaning and controversial on the audience. The trick of the citation lies on the implication who the overharvested crop is and who is overharvesting now. The choice of the citation is an ingenious one which reflects how wise tycoon Li is. The beauty of the citation lies on the background of the poem. The key point is the mother queen killed her sons one after another. Who on earth once claimed herself is a loving mother? If she is really qualified to be mother of all Hong Kong children, is she doing the thing similar to the ancient mother queen did now? Bravo! Mr. Li.

Tycoon Li is the lead man of Hong Kong's business community. He has made a high profile yet subtle message to our loving mother now. Mama, if you did not hear what the people sing, can you pick up what Mr. Li is saying?

Unlock

Everybody here in Hong Kong is talking about the deadlock which Hong Kong is facing now and it seems apart from those cliche urging violent protestors to calm down and stop violence but nothing new. Nor is it really receptive and mostly of all, that works. The deadlock is attributed by the insistence and persistence that the Hong Kong government and its counterpart both think that they are doing the right thing and none of the two sides wants to back off.

What makes the deadlock keeps dragging on is that neither the radical protestors nor the police can make an overwhelming success over their counterpart. Undoubtedly the riot police is better equipped but the violent protestors also have their edge that they are out-numbered the former and their tactics are much more agile and proactive than that of the police who can only be reactive when there is mass gathering and sign of violence. Contrarily, the violent protestors enjoy much greater freedom on where and when to launch their actions, especially with a guerilla tactic.

This is the situation at the front line. At the back office, Carrie Lam's administration is in the underdog position as well because Lam is handicapped in most areas on the handling of the situation. She is not allowed to make concession on things which Beijing sees as a undermining on the sovereignty over Hong Kong or a damage to the central government's authority. Locally she is also pressurized by the police that no independent inquiry commission is acceptable. Therefore basically Lam can do nothing on the five major demands raised by the public. Her persistent non responsiveness just fuels the protest against her. Her inability on concession, however, gives much leeway on her counterpart to launch more attack on her.

While Lam is in underdog but her counterpart also have not made much progress on their agenda neither. Their strategy is to disturb the economy in Hong Kong and to capitalize on business sector's pressure to Lam on the back down. However, they are walking on a very fine line that if they are not successful within a short period of time, as and when the general public is out of patience on the disturbance of traffic and regular livelihood, the support or at least the understanding on their radical actions will lose steam. Public sentiment could change rather quickly.

To unlock the current deadlock, there must be either one side be able to make a breakthrough. Hope on the government is slim because red lines have been drawn by Beijing whom think they are formidable that no concession is necessary nor suitable especially they see this movement is actually a master piece of foreign force that trying to deter China's rise by pulling her leg with Hong Kong issue. Beijing's last masterstroke resorts to the deployment of PLA but this is really a double-edged sword. It is not desirable and preferable for both Beijing and Hong Kong so this is the last resort which Beijing is reluctant to use except absolute necessary.

The government's counterpart is also in a dilemma that their escalating radical actions could possibly create negative feeling against them if things drag on too long but fails to generate big enough pressure from the business sector and the so far majority supporting society. They need stronger and more severe damage on the economy to create the adequate pressure on the government. Likewise, this is also a double-edged sword to the counterpart as well. However, there seems to be more room for them to play around on the strategy than is the government.

To make a breakthrough, the opponents could alter their tactic against the police. Instead of routine radical confrontation or even ever escalating deployment of weapons which just gave the police the justification on their brutal suppression and also possibly generates a violent image which is not quite receptive by the main stream opinion. On the contrary perhaps the protestors can adopt a softer approach and much lower violent yet with much economic disturbing actions as a means for their goal. Except it is more receptive by the public and the beauty is that the protestors can leverage on their agility and flexibility on the location and timing for their actions. Guerilla tactic can drain the police's energy and not fighting back with laser beams, bricks or petrol bombs that will not lead the officers taking it personal as they are not attacked physically and personally.

Lam's administration relies heavily on the deployment of police to counter the protestors actions. A more favourable option to the protestors is probably to rip the police off from the government. The association for the front line officers has once made an open announcement to their management expressing their concern that police force is used on political conflict. Just image wearing a full gear and working longer hours in the hot summer days/nights day in day out without an end, it is believed no officer is happy with that. Naturally they are disciplined force which must be obedient but when the situation drags on and the police officers are getting more and more fatigue. After taking off their uniforms these officers are individuals with independent thinking. They will ask who on earth gives them this ordeal and why the hell they have it. At a time the collective resistant sentiment is high enough then the government just cannot neglect it.

The protestors should not put themselves into confronting role against the police. This will just push the police becoming Lam's administration's ally if both are seen as enemies by protestors. This is certainly not the ideal situation. When Lam's administration loses its only local supporting force while Beijing is reluctant on the deployment of PLA then perhaps it is the time a breakthrough can be seen, hopefully.

A storm is brewing

Last night was definitely a milestone in the on-going anti-extradition bill incident.

When weekend marches in Hong Kong has already become a routine, what happened in last night definitely has entered into a new territory which has profound impact on what is coming in the future. Needless to elaborate more, they were the vandalization on the China Liaison Office(CLO) in Western by men-in-black and the terror attack in Yuen Long MTR station by men-in-white.

Unlike the previous marches and the aftermath confrontation between the minority protesters and police, the march in last night ended up to be the besiege of the CLO and even vandalization on the China national emblem at the CLO. CLO is the quasi China embassy in Hong Kong. The attack was no ordinary besieges elsewhere in the past thus this is something groundbreaking in the sense that it aims explicitly towards China herself. It is already not a local issue about the people's dissatisfaction on the past governance by the Hong Kong government, nor about the trigger event of the objection on the extradition bill. Apparently forces with otherwise objectives have hijacked the movement into a China-targeting campaign. CLO is a symbol of China's sovereignty in Hong Kong and the attack will definitely be seen as a challenge. Bejing's upcoming responds will definitely bring a significant impact on the further development on the already tensed China-Hong Kong relation.

On the other hand, the men-in-white terror attack in Yuen Long was apparently a well organized and premeditated crime aiming to take the chance to reclaim and share the policing power when the Hong Kong police force is busy on dealing with the large scale confrontation elsewhere. There was a saying that prior to the establishment of ICAC in 1974 especially among the 1950-60s', it was the triads who literally ran Hong Kong under the overseeing of the badly corrupted Royal Hong Kong Police. The triads lost its heyday after the corrupted big bosses in the police were forced to retire after the inception of ICAC. The triad bosses transformed into legitimate businessmen, as and when Hong Kong's economy was entering into its golden 30 years since 1980s', along with their original businesses.

These triad bosses have been longing for and looking for any chance for the returning to their heyday. They hold this hope for good reason because China has a favourable feeling towards Hong Kong triads. Deng Xiaoping and the former chief of the Bureau of Public Security said not only once that some triads were patriots. They saw the golden opportunity when the Hong Kong government fell into a lame duck and the credibility and popularity of the police force has largely undermined now. This situation gives rise to their power to negotiate a better position in running their illegal businesses. The random assault in the MTR train and station was just a flexing of its muscle to showcase how much chaos they can make to the law and order in Hong Kong. It also was meant to tell the police who has the real say in the local community.

While the above two events captured most of the public's attention, there were two news should equally deserve the same concern. The first news was that the police has raided an arsenal found with explosives and other weapons in last Saturday and the other news was the announcement made by the Junior Police Officers Association in the middle of this month urging the senior police management should consider the safety of the front line officers when deploying them in dangerous missions. Do they have any impact on the latest development in last Sunday? You bet!

Carrie Lam is really in a big bowl of hot soup now. She has not only got one hand burnt but the other one as well now. She relies on the police force to deal with the men-in-black as well as men-in-white. On the other hand, the public is strongly requesting an independent inquiry commission which is resisted by the police force. She just got stuck in the middle.


Now these two forces are just in their early stages. A bigger storm is yet to come.