Her days are numbered(3)

Following the District Council election in last weekend and the pan-democratic camp's overwhelming success, Hong Kong finally enjoys a few days of calmness so far. The outcome of the polling was out of expectation and also as expected in the sense that the result was actually a big No to the government which was expected, the victory was much better than expectation though.

However, things happened before the election were really nasty. Hong Kong has literally turned into a war zone especially at the Chinese University and Polytechnics University. Days of battle between the riot police and the defenders made Hong Kong "famous" again. The island is an international city and renowned for many things like good food, shopping or fun land of money adventurers ...etc. People around the world at least heard about Hong Kong's name even if he/she knows nothing about it. Thanks to Carrie Lam, the CE of HKSAR com most "successful" disservice salesperson for Hong Kong, that this island is getting more and more well known in the international community but unfortunately against its reputation.

The social unrest, originated from Lam's stupidity and arrogance on the maneuver of the extradition bill proposal. This social movement not only directly led to the total failure of the pro-establishment camp in the district council election but literally rendered Hong Kong as a bargaining chip for Trump in the trade deal negotiation with China. This mistake out-weight all those mistakes made by any of her predecessors. People has been gossiping if Lam can survive till the end of her first term. It seems the CE of HKSAR are cursed so her all three predecessors could not complete their appointments. Therefore people speculate Lam will end up the same as them and people did that for good reason. All the three former CEs have done something different but the common point were extremely unwelcome by the public. Despite the things they did were different but all yielded the massive protests among the public. At the end of the day they all stepped down with different excuses, and apparently under Beijing's idea.

Some may still argue that the state chairman, Xi Jinping, has just openly recognized the work by Lam and her administration recently. It seems Beijing is still supportive to her but people should not forget all the three former CEs also received this kind of recognition from Beijing amid the overwhelming pubic criticism prior to their stepping down. The mess created by Lam now is way bigger than those by her predecessors so her punishment in more or less the same pattern seems to be unavoidable.

For people who know the practice of the sacking of any senior management member understand that unless the one is involved in criminal offense, the replacement will not happen right away despite very serious mistake is committed. Most of the cases it takes time to find the suitable candidate. On the other hand, a smooth transition is sought after for the sake of operation. Indeed finding one who is willing to shoulder the responsibility amid the chaos is extremely difficult, if not possible. If the recent calmness can last finally then it could be somehow easier to find the white knight to take up the challenge.

Everyone here in Hong Kong is longing for the calmness not only for the peaceful livelihood but hoping to see the end of the sinner of the chaos. In fact, it became quite clear, after the polling result, to the sinner's master that they can either put an even stronger suppression on the people's opinion or resort to a policy adjustment fine-tuned to the reality happening here in Hong Kong. Apparently the former is not the option available to Beijing considering the current situation so the sacrifice of a stooge is out of question.

Is it gonna work?(2)

It is more than one month since my last post with the same heading and the answer to the question became quite clear now. Meanwhile today the social unrest just went into a new milestone following the death of an university student who mysteriously fell from height in a car park building during a police-protestors confrontation a week ago. The news of the student's death three days ago triggered a new round of mayhem throughout Hong Kong territory. However, the situation in today turned much sour than it was in the past few days when a police officer shot down a protestor live fire with his pistol and another traffic police officer charged into protestors three times with his motorbike.

Today's shooting is the second incidence following the shooting in last month. Unlike the last shooting that the protestor was engaging in action towards the police officer, the victim in today's shooting just followed and watched about two meters away from the police officer while some other protestors were having bodily contact with that officer. Apparently that officer has burst into loss of control while being confronted and under stress. Compounded with the traffic police's reckless charging with his motorbike, it will unavoidably tear further apart the police force with the public as live round footage went viral in the Internet. The public's condemnation on the police's violence puts Carrie Lam, the so far CE of the HKSAR, into a dilemma. The police force is Lam's sole reliance on the armed force backing but it seems the Force is going to be out of her control.

It seems there is a delicate shift of dominance between Lam's administration and the police force. As and when the social unrest goes more and more furious Lam's administration is getting more and more dependent on the police force to deal with the mayhem. Every seasoned business owner knows that when a particular staff became indispensable that it will be a big headache of office governance. This is the exact situation that Lam is trapped into particularly when Beijing openly expressed it's recognition on the HK police force's work. This puts Lam in a more vulnerable position in term of office politics. It seems both parties are aware of this situation well or at least the front line police officers do so therefore they enjoy much freedom and leeway on the exercising excessive force while Lam is quite cautious and refrained on commenting the situation.

Some people may say the stationed PLA is Lam's last resort so she is not that hindered in under dog. However, the PLA is not under her command so the deployment is solely up to Beijing's decision while the latter has a big concern of the use of PLA on HK soil especially amid the closing negotiation on a deal with the U.S. on the trade talk. On the other hand, Beijing has a much bigger concern on the deployment of PLA at this moment when the police force is under condemnation. The latter may interpret the action is a distrust on them or even a disposal after ordeal. They are in their some thirty thousands and most of all, armed. Their grievance is the least thing Beijing does not want to see.

There is a Chinese saying to describe someone is in a dilemma as the riding on a tiger's back, it is not easy to keep on riding in one hand but dangerous to cast off on the other hand. Where is the tiger? Who is riding?  Hm....

Is it gonna work?

It was really a frenetic night here in Hong Kong in last night. Countless of destruction happened throughout the territory. It was just one step away from war zone. Things in war zone like petrol bombs and gun shooting did happen. The difference is that there was no fire exchange only. Violence stepped up quickly from China's national day on Oct 1 and it reached another milestone since the enactment of the "ban masks law" effective after mid-night of Oct 4.

The ban masks law (BML) was established without going through the legislative council but under the discretion of Carrie Lam, the CE of HKSAR, and a co-decision with the Executive Council. The BML is meant to refrain the radical protestors from engaging violence when they are easier to be identified without the covering of a mask. BML prohibits protestors wearing masks during a demonstration consisting of more than 30 people or public assembly of 50 people.

This is another stupid action that Lam and/or her master made again relating to this biggest ever social movement in Hong Kong after the returning to China. No one can tell the almost civil war in last night was the analogy of question of chicken first or egg to this highest level of violence so far in response to the BML. The point is that if the BML does work then the radical protestors was just using the last few hours left behind after the announcement of the BML till the enforcement to have their last strike which led to the "civil war" in last night.

However, the key point still lies on whether the BML is going to work though. To have an educated guess one needs to examine the logic of the BML which claims that protestors tends to be more furious when their identification are concealed under masks. Therefore banning on wearing masks during demonstration or assembly could retard radical protestors' violence, hopefully.

The stupidity of this logic is that protestors march peacefully without masks does not necessarily mean they will not wear masks when they start to commit violence. After all, engaging in violent destruction is a crime already so why care about the offense of violating the BML when they are smashing things? The stupid logic of the BML assumes radical protestors will not wear masks all the way through demonstration to destruction. The reality is that for sure any sensible radical protestor will not wear his mask until the moment he commits the destruction. BML just literally cannot serve as what it is expected. After all, carrying a mask in pocket or bag is not a crime anyway.

Having said, BML does deter the truly peaceful protestors from participating demonstration if they do not want to be identified for various reasons like the fear of job security. After all, China's economic influence has already infiltrate into every sectors in Hong Kong's economy. The firing of cabin crews and pilots in Cathay Pacific, the prime local carrier in Hong Kong did seed the white terror of its kind.

Perhaps this is the actual purpose behind the BML. Ending violence via BML? Come on!

Evil police? A big misunderstanding!

A few days ago the once retired but recently back on board again temporary deputy commissioner of police, Alan Lau Yip Shing, sent an internal letter to the police force to comfort and encourage them on their contribution in the operation dealing with the Hong Kong's ever biggest social movement in the past three months. Being the second man to the police commissioner, it is alright for Lau to cheer up his team in the hope to earn the continuous support from the team as the movement seems to be unlikely to die out in the near future. Indeed this is the expected role on Lau for his reunion with the police force again even after his retirement due to his past experience in the operation on the Korean farmers' protest on the WTO meeting held in Hong Kong back in 2005.

In Lau's letter, he accused the people from sectors in political party, lawmaker, religion, media, education and social welfare attacked the ruling of the government for the sake of their political purposes and interests. He further questioned why the same police force was rated as among the few best in the Asia just back three months ago but now became what is alleged as the evil police.

It is absolutely alright to motivate his subordinates but if the content in Lau's letter really reflects his genuine thinking then his letter just gives away how innocent and naive of the second man to the police chief is.

Any police force in the world is the law enforcement arm of any regime in the world. Therefore police force is part of the constitution and establishment. It's fundamental role is very simple, ie., to safeguard the regime against mostly internal challenges including those from the outlaws and anti-governmental activists. So whenever there is any anti-governmental activity, it is always the police force out there to combat them. If people has neglected this ugly part of the police force then it is just a big misunderstanding.

On the other hand, the police force has been doing its job in maintaining the law and order in Hong Kong and the crime rate is among the few lowest countries or areas in the region, at least prior to the outbreak of the massive social movement since this June. Hong Kong police force really deserved the reputation which it earned from its hard work throughout the years. To be fair, even during these few months of social unrest, Hong Kong police force is still working hard in doing their jobs on the maintenance of the daily law and order against the outlaws.

What marked the difference on the image of the police force is their role on the suppression on the social movements since four years ago from the Occupy Central. Being part of the establishment, police force is repeatedly used by the administration in cracking down all unwanted voices and actions. This was when the police force got its curse as evil police. It was CY Leung's and now Carrie Lam's administration that put the police force in direct confrontation with the public. Indeed they are the one to be blamed.

In fact people should also distinguish the police force's management from the individual police officers. The latter acts according to the instructions given from the former. The on-site commander should be held responsible for the tactics and deployment of forces. Excessive aggressive actions could have been taken in order to brown-nosing the superiors or even Beijing. Naturally there are some police officers have overly exercised his force at his own discretion. This is really an undesirable behaviour.

While people is accusing the police force is evil, it is better to target precisely who the black sheep are but at the end of the day, it should be the one who is responsible for bringing up this chaos be accountable for the blame.

So don't blame the police force. They are just like a dual faces character.  Whether they are evil just depends on which face you are looking at. Remember, your great hound is always excellent and the difference lies on whether it is hunting for you or hunting you.

Who knows?

People may wonder if Hong Kong is at the brink of what is similar to China's Cultural Revolution when in last week battery happened between opposing  groups with different political opinion. This was quite alike the chaos happened 50 years ago in China where Red Guards fought furiously with each other both claimed they were guarding Mao's thoughts. That was the most insane social movement ever in China's modern history. That was also China's dark age arising from the internal power struggle within the CCP on the party leadership. At that time, sons against fathers, wives against husbands, brothers against sisters, students against teachers, tens of thousands families torn apart because of different stances. All blames to the sinister Mao ZeDong whom utilized the movement to safeguard his leadership and the evil CCP's keen-to-power-struggle nature.

When people look around what is happening here in Hong Kong now they found similar signs of such violence among the public. Apart from the battery in last week, the first incident was the "terror attack" by the men-in-white to the men-in-black back in July. The latest addition is the assault on the democratic lawmaker, Roy Kwong, and the attack on the female reporter who works for Apple Daily, an explicit opposition media, in two days ago. Many believe the July terror attack was a premeditated crime against the opposition protestors while the battery in last week was suspected to be a counter-attack by the radical protestors on the two seemingly pro-government men as both cases happened in Yuen Long. The tendency of violent confrontation among civilian seems growing, on top of that between radical protestors and police.

While those believe the radical protestors are under the support or even the direction of foreign influences, they might have overlooked another possibility. For people who know the development history of the CCP know that the Party actually grew alongside with continuous internal power struggle from its founding stage and even still in its hardship on the civil war with the GMT army for seizing the ruling on the nation. In fact internal struggle has never stopped throughout the 70 years after the founding of Communist China. Throughout the years some internal struggles were about the direction of the state development. However, even more struggles were for power, ie., leadership on the Party especially those happened in the latest couple of decades. As and after China joined the WTO and her economy enjoyed a sharp growth, grasping on the say means controlling the most lucrative sectors of the economy. Every candidate were eyeing on the posts of the Party's general secretary, the president and the chairman of central military commission. Anyone who can grasp all the three posts becomes the modern emperor in China. The current emperor has a nick name of Winnie the Pooh.

While Winnie is sitting at the highest throne but he is not lack of jealous eyes whom are so eagerly to take every opportunity to pull his leg or even take him down for the sake to replace him. When China's propaganda is blaming the U.S. capitalizing on the Hong Kong card on hindering China's rising, Winnie's every move and strategy on dealing this problem is under his rival's scrutiny. Despite Winnie seems to be in full control in his throne but his rivalry will take no mercy should he make a wrong move that not only fails to resolve the problem but also brings damage to the state. This could just give the rivalry a good excuse to force Winnie on the abdication. A possible way is to stir up a greater mess in Hong Kong to replicate another massacre.

Perhaps there are someone else who are in greater desire that Hong Kong to be even more chaotic than does Trump. Who knows?

All men are equal before law? Perhaps you got it wrong

In the past few months the whole island is heated up because of the social activities arising from the protests on the extradition bill. The origin of the people's vigorous resistance is the concern on the two legal systems in the Mainland and Hong Kong respectively. At the beginning of this social movement Hong Kong people voted with their marches on how lack of confidence on the judicial systems in China, one may assume that they are contented on the one that is being practiced here in Hong Kong, at least comparatively and relatively.

China's judicial system is no doubt infamous due to the root cause of its constitution that the CCP leads every governmental functions including the courts. When the ruling party is above and rules the courts then naturally no fair trial can be expected as long as the defendant is the government meaning the CCP itself. Compounded with the serious corruption both in private and public sectors including the courts, so justice is just something of lip service only even if in the ordinary civil cases which dignitaries or the riches are defendants. This is the reason why, prior to the withdrawal of the Bill, Hong Kong people is so worried that if one day they are extradited to China no matter for true or fabricated accusations. 

The fear on China's judicial system is substantive because it is notorious with countless existing examples. This undermines the propaganda of the promotion of living in Greater Bay Area.  Naturally the reality is that there are already many Hong Kong people living in China due to work or other reasons. They might think as long as they stay away from any anti-government movements and to be an obedient citizen then they should be free from the threat. Naturally the danger is not imminent but the problem is that even if one does not actively engage in "dangerous activities", it does not necessarily means he will not come across injustice incident. For example, one may be knocked down by a car driven by a drunken senior official, or say his business is too good but hurts that of his jealous dignitary competitor whom thus sends in wretches to teach the former a lesson. In both cases the plaintiff most probably will not receive a fair trial on the cases.

Perhaps everybody agrees that judicial system in countries with totalitarian regime is injustice. So how about those in the democratic countries? Naturally the latter is far more better than the former but having said that, injustice seems to be a dark side of human nature disregard the difference in the ideology. To look into the issue, a scrutiny on the formation of the legal system, even if in the democratic countries, is essential.

Depending on the constitution in a particular country, laws are drafted and then passed in the law-making body. Therefore the legislative system, ie., who draft and who is responsible for passing the laws are equally important to the fairness of the judicial system among the whole legal system. The controversy brought out by the anti-extradition bill incident often rests on the confidence of Hong Kong's judicial system but the courts are the parties who judge cases based on the established laws. When the laws themselves are in favour of some particular "beneficiaries" in the first place or the legal proceeding process is not friendly to some segments of the society then no matter how fair the courts are, injustice is just inevitable.

For the first point on the law-making process, the proposal of a bill is usually drafted by the related governmental agency which may or may not have consultation with the public. In reality most ordinary people are not equipped with the needed knowledge or time to attend consultations, let alone those at the bottom of social minority who is often neglected. On the other hand those wealthy classes or big corporations have much more resources in engaging professionals on the lobbying of the law to their favour. The lobbyists in K Street in Washington D.C. is a good example of this unfairness at the start.

On the other hand, the complicated legal process on a proceeding and the most of all, the associated legal fees often scare common folks away on the attempt to get justice through legal action. In most places, lawyer's legal advice charge is hourly based. One even cannot afford to pay the charge for the legal advice whether a further legal action is justified. Even if one's pocket is deep enough for the legal advice bill but the subsequent court proceeding costs and the barrister fee which is unknown till the end of the case often wards ordinary people off from this route in pursuit of justice. This is particularly true for the case of a small potato plaintiff vs a wealthy defendant.

After all, no matter totalitarian nations or democratic nations, laws are so constructed to mainly serve the dignitaries and riches. The reality is that justice comes with a price tag which is often too costly to ordinary people. This is an untold truth that could break the heart of billions of people who is dreaming all men are equal before law.

Stupid vs smart

HSI rocketed almost 1000 points in the day before yesterday when there was speculation that Carrie Lam, the chief executive of HKSAR, would announce certain back down after the trading hours of the Hong Kong bourse. Withdrawal on the long debated extradition bill finally came true when Lam threw in the towel at a pre-recorded TV press release in the same evening. However the belated move did not earn applause but criticism instead. The opposition camp condemned Lam for the damages that she brought to Hong Kong in the past three months due to her stubbornness, rigidity and arrogance on the public opinion.

In the broadcasting, Lam appeared weary and short of spirit. Undoubtedly she must has gone through very hard time during the past few months especially the past August when the confrontation between the radical protestors and the police escalated into a new height. Pressure from the North to settle the chaos in its soonest was mounting but on the other hand Beijing's tie on Lam's hand for concession just drove her crazy. Lam's listlessness did come with good reason because she knows well just the withdrawal itself will certainly not meet the request from the public on the five demands. Her ordeal is far from over.

It is widely believed that Lam is forbidden on any concession on the five demands without the consent from Beijing so her announcement on the withdrawal is definitely not at her own discretion. This is really an extremely stupid decision to make concession on withdrawing the proposal of the bill only. The move not only fails to ease the tension between Lam's administration and the public when the slogan "all five demands or nothing" has been deeply rooted in the protestors' mind but also produces a speculation that when Lam backed down on the withdrawal then she will eventually have to do the rest.

Even any greenhand in public relationship field knows that for any PR crisis, it must be dealt with immediately and straight to the specific point. On the other hand, if a politician does something only because of the pressure from his/her opponent then he/she can only be in the underdog position. However, Lam and her boss in the far North committed these two mistakes. People just can't help but puzzling why on earth the top leadership of the world's second largest economy would commit such stupid and elementary mistakes.

For anyone who buys the saying that the anti-extradition bill movement at its later stage was hijacked to be the U.S.'s Hong Kong card against China will agree that apparently the former is playing this game far more smarter than is the latter. In the beginning the movement was solely a locally sprouted one originating from the distrust on Beijing but the U.S. capitalizes on this sentiment as well as the many long-existed social issues in Hong Kong to brew the movement into an anti-China campaign. The most ingenious part of the game is that the battle field is not in the U.S. but in Hong Kong which is also the China's soil. Therefore the U.S. can have the cake of either that when its plan works out then Hong Kong card can deter China's rising and even if the plan fails, the damages to Hong Kong arising from the recent chaos do not hurt the U.S. at all so it has nothing to lose but could possibly succeed in combating China if in luck. People once said the British is best in playing politic but it seems the American has already outpaced their relatives since they defeated the British Empire. In politic gaming China appears like a primary school student comparing to her American counterpart.The U.S. can rest relieved that China is in no way capable to challenge its alpha status.

What destined, inevitably is going to happen

Dark shadow cast over this island as well as the world. Coincidentally both relate to the world's second largest economy.

Following the recent retaliative import tariff launched from both sides, the tension between the U.S. and China escalated to a new height. It became clearer and clearer that the conflict between the two has nothing to do with the trade imbalance but just the wrestling on the world leadership. It seems Trump has lost his patience on the so-called trade talk when he realized that it is the tactic that China uses to buy time to prepare herself for an even wider scope of confrontation not only confined to the trade aspect.

China's plan is to keep buying agricultural products from the U.S. at one hand letting Trump to get the support he needs from the farmers on the presidential election so that the trade talk can drag on and on. On the other hand, she just slowly depreciates RMB exchange rate and adjust her economy's reliance on the export especially to the U.S. market to undermine the impact on her export arising from the increased tariff.

With the recent release of the trade statistic, China appears to remain intact under the prevailing increased import tariff rates applicable to her export to the U.S. and this is certainly not what Trump is happy to see. There are signs that import tariff hike is just a double-edged sword to the U.S. especially when the second round of tariff hike is set to be effective from September 1 while China seems to continue to use RMB exchange rate as a counter measure. However, tax-led price hike definitely will not only hurt the consumer spending sentiment in the U.S. but also a substantive hit on the coming holiday shopping spree. The diminishing impact to China arising from the import tariff on her export drives Trump resorts to the alternative measure to deal with China.

Yesterday Trump announced the establishment of the new Space Command. In his speech, Trump explicitly said this is a move to counter the threat from China and Russia on the American satellites. Apart from the telecommunication and scientific observation purposes, satellites' main job is for military operation, a more explicit expression, for warfare. This latest move at this critical moment signals that Trump is in the preparation of a war with China as a last resort on the wrestling of world champion. People might take it lightly that it is only an intimidating action but judging from what Trump said and done in the past, he means business, especially this is China's moment of make or break. If she can survive and even be prosperous under the U.S.'s current clamping then China is going to be a real formidable nation which the U.S. can no longer contain. The U.S. could has destroyed the then new born nation with A-bomb to avoid the potential threat when the CCP founded communist China 70 years ago. Will it miss the chance again? Most of all, can it afford to miss again when the threat is no longer potential but imminent?

The world has enjoyed peace for a long time, too long that people almost forget warfare could be just around the corner. People escaped from the Cold War with luck. However, the world is not big enough to accommodate two leaders just like only one alpha male exists in every pride. What destined, inevitably is going to happen.

Unlock (2)

In my previous post with the same title I mentioned that the protestors' strategy is to disturb Hong Kong's economy so that the business sector is hit as such they will apply pressure on Lam's administration for solution as a result hoping Lam will back off.

Today Hong Kong's richest man tycoon Li Ka Shing has made a full front page ad in a few newspapers expressing his concern over the development of the anti-extradition movement so far. The ad came into two versions. While one of them is rather "conventional" urging no more violence but the other version is quite interesting with much undertone and implication within it.

The content of the right hand side ad is quoted from a sentence from an ancient Chinese poem. The background of the poem is that during a monarchy struggle the queen killed her son and planned to kill another one as well. In the poem this victim expressed his sorrow with an analogy of the overharvested crop just cannot stand any more picking that how come his mother was so cruel on her offspring killing them one after another.

Some said tycoon Li has already used the same citation during the chaos in the Occupy Central Movement in 2016 so he just used it again in this event with similar scenario. However, one must know tycoon Li is with super extraordinary high wisdom. Everything he did carries a meaning and serves a specific purpose. The two ads apparently address to two different categories of audiences. The conventional one on the left is straight forward and explicit without twist, simply no more violence while targeted audience certainly includes protestors but perhaps police as well.


The choice of the citation in the ad on the left is apparently more subtle in meaning and controversial on the audience. The trick of the citation lies on the implication who the overharvested crop is and who is overharvesting now. The choice of the citation is an ingenious one which reflects how wise tycoon Li is. The beauty of the citation lies on the background of the poem. The key point is the mother queen killed her sons one after another. Who on earth once claimed herself is a loving mother? If she is really qualified to be mother of all Hong Kong children, is she doing the thing similar to the ancient mother queen did now? Bravo! Mr. Li.

Tycoon Li is the lead man of Hong Kong's business community. He has made a high profile yet subtle message to our loving mother now. Mama, if you did not hear what the people sing, can you pick up what Mr. Li is saying?

Unlock

Everybody here in Hong Kong is talking about the deadlock which Hong Kong is facing now and it seems apart from those cliche urging violent protestors to calm down and stop violence but nothing new. Nor is it really receptive and mostly of all, that works. The deadlock is attributed by the insistence and persistence that the Hong Kong government and its counterpart both think that they are doing the right thing and none of the two sides wants to back off.

What makes the deadlock keeps dragging on is that neither the radical protestors nor the police can make an overwhelming success over their counterpart. Undoubtedly the riot police is better equipped but the violent protestors also have their edge that they are out-numbered the former and their tactics are much more agile and proactive than that of the police who can only be reactive when there is mass gathering and sign of violence. Contrarily, the violent protestors enjoy much greater freedom on where and when to launch their actions, especially with a guerilla tactic.

This is the situation at the front line. At the back office, Carrie Lam's administration is in the underdog position as well because Lam is handicapped in most areas on the handling of the situation. She is not allowed to make concession on things which Beijing sees as a undermining on the sovereignty over Hong Kong or a damage to the central government's authority. Locally she is also pressurized by the police that no independent inquiry commission is acceptable. Therefore basically Lam can do nothing on the five major demands raised by the public. Her persistent non responsiveness just fuels the protest against her. Her inability on concession, however, gives much leeway on her counterpart to launch more attack on her.

While Lam is in underdog but her counterpart also have not made much progress on their agenda neither. Their strategy is to disturb the economy in Hong Kong and to capitalize on business sector's pressure to Lam on the back down. However, they are walking on a very fine line that if they are not successful within a short period of time, as and when the general public is out of patience on the disturbance of traffic and regular livelihood, the support or at least the understanding on their radical actions will lose steam. Public sentiment could change rather quickly.

To unlock the current deadlock, there must be either one side be able to make a breakthrough. Hope on the government is slim because red lines have been drawn by Beijing whom think they are formidable that no concession is necessary nor suitable especially they see this movement is actually a master piece of foreign force that trying to deter China's rise by pulling her leg with Hong Kong issue. Beijing's last masterstroke resorts to the deployment of PLA but this is really a double-edged sword. It is not desirable and preferable for both Beijing and Hong Kong so this is the last resort which Beijing is reluctant to use except absolute necessary.

The government's counterpart is also in a dilemma that their escalating radical actions could possibly create negative feeling against them if things drag on too long but fails to generate big enough pressure from the business sector and the so far majority supporting society. They need stronger and more severe damage on the economy to create the adequate pressure on the government. Likewise, this is also a double-edged sword to the counterpart as well. However, there seems to be more room for them to play around on the strategy than is the government.

To make a breakthrough, the opponents could alter their tactic against the police. Instead of routine radical confrontation or even ever escalating deployment of weapons which just gave the police the justification on their brutal suppression and also possibly generates a violent image which is not quite receptive by the main stream opinion. On the contrary perhaps the protestors can adopt a softer approach and much lower violent yet with much economic disturbing actions as a means for their goal. Except it is more receptive by the public and the beauty is that the protestors can leverage on their agility and flexibility on the location and timing for their actions. Guerilla tactic can drain the police's energy and not fighting back with laser beams, bricks or petrol bombs that will not lead the officers taking it personal as they are not attacked physically and personally.

Lam's administration relies heavily on the deployment of police to counter the protestors actions. A more favourable option to the protestors is probably to rip the police off from the government. The association for the front line officers has once made an open announcement to their management expressing their concern that police force is used on political conflict. Just image wearing a full gear and working longer hours in the hot summer days/nights day in day out without an end, it is believed no officer is happy with that. Naturally they are disciplined force which must be obedient but when the situation drags on and the police officers are getting more and more fatigue. After taking off their uniforms these officers are individuals with independent thinking. They will ask who on earth gives them this ordeal and why the hell they have it. At a time the collective resistant sentiment is high enough then the government just cannot neglect it.

The protestors should not put themselves into confronting role against the police. This will just push the police becoming Lam's administration's ally if both are seen as enemies by protestors. This is certainly not the ideal situation. When Lam's administration loses its only local supporting force while Beijing is reluctant on the deployment of PLA then perhaps it is the time a breakthrough can be seen, hopefully.

Hemophilic value investors (2)

I used to write a post in the same topic hemophilic value investors back nine months ago. First of all, I make it clear again it is no offense with such heading but just wanted to bring out the fact that the moments when value investors have a good appetite are that when tragedies happen that bring fear, as Buffet puts it when others are fearful be greedy.

While the world major indexes like DJ, FTSE, DAX and Nikkei are still hanging around their relatively high level, HSI has already down 22% from its peak. The reasons are multiple. HSI reached its peak by 2018 January but then it experienced an almost straight fall from February till October sparkled by the trade tension between the U.S. and China. Only when the two bosses of the world's two largest economy met in December in the same year then the meeting brought HSI a short-lived four months rebounce in this year then followed by an on-going plunge amid the worsening relationship between the two since this May compounded with the ever escalating social tension locally due to the anti-extradition bill in the past two months.

Technically HSI has already entered into the bear market. With the view of Elliot Wave Principle, HSI is also in the course of wave C. Unlike the pattern in the textbooks, this wave C could be a tricky one though because Hong Kong is an highly opened market so it is prone to be affected by the overseas markets and the China market as well, amid the local incidents. The ever increasing listing of Chinese companies in the HKEX and their high ratio among the constituency in the HSI renders a dominance on the movement in the Index along the outlook of China economy. Among the overseas markets, the U.S. stock market no doubt has the most impact on the HSI.

These two major drivers are with contradictory impact on the HSI, at least in the year to come. Still being an export-oriented country, China's economy will inevitably be hit under the hindrance of the trade war, so will her stock market be and this is a gravity on the HSI. However, as Trump is doing everything he can to drive up the U.S.'s stock market to facilitate his second term presidency campaign, the DJ and S&P should be staying in the high level, if not to break another record high, at least in 2020. This is a pulling force on the HSI.

While there are upward and downward forces on the HSI in the long run, it seems the local incident plays an even more decisive factor on the HSI at least in the latter half of 2019. The impact of the social tension and the ever increasing frequency on the police-protestors confrontation start to emerge on the economic activities. Stock market and property market, the two thermometers of the well-being of Hong Kong economy, are not immutable. Rumors of capital outflow from the Island went viral indeed. Along with the recent development, Hong Kong is no longer seen as a capital safe heaven, especially to some controversial funds. To add to its woes, the meeting in yesterday in Shenzhen held by the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office further brought doubt and worry on the deployment of China soldiers(PLA) in suppressing confrontations as hinted by the quasi spoke persons or messengers after the meeting.

As the anti-extradition bill movement is hijacked by forces with otherwise intention, on the other hand, the lame duck Hong Kong government is handicapped by Beijing on the concession on the five demands raised by the public, confrontation and escalating violence will not go away but just intensify. The deployment of PLA in combating protestors is not the question of whether or not but when. These soldiers are no boy scout nor are they ordinary army which protects their own fellow. People should not forget what they did in a hot summer night 30 years ago in the far northern city. Indeed these soldiers are embedded in the downtown of the Island so people should not be surprised if they are spotted with their tanks in the streets of Hong Kong soil. The nightmare bloodshed haunting for 30 years just comes alive again.

Value investors, are you ready for the feast?

Don't get it wrong

Following the terror attack in Yuen Long MTR station in last Sunday, there was accusation that the police ignored the gathering of the men-in-white gangsters prior to the attack and deliberately delayed to be present in the crime scene of violence when it happened. Rumor of collusion between the police and the triad went viral.

Perhaps it is a success of the Hong Kong action movies of police and criminals on the portrait of both parties. The public generally holds a thought that the police is against the criminals and they take each other as enemy. Unfortunately this is just a big big misunderstanding, if not misleading of concept. Police and triads in Hong Kong have been collaborating for decades indeed.

Gangstering is an ancient "business" throughout the world. There are always criminals who prefer to make their living by taking advantage of the other people and to take the fruits out of them illegally. Therefore police is there to combat these criminals and to restore the law and order in the society. This is probably the basic formula of most police action movies. The reality is that this is not completely the truth though.

While the Hong Kong government is still capitalizing on the legacy residue from the former British-Hong Kong's civil servant team that is pride with high integrity amid its rapidly China-ization after the returning to the Mainland, as mentioned in my previous post that in fact Hong Kong has experienced a dark age of law and order in the 1950-60s' prior to the inception of ICAC in 1974, Hong Kong was literally managed by gangs because they have bribed the whole police force so that all criminal activities were tolerated or even under the police's consent. The police's job was indeed to coordinate with the gang bosses to ensure the latter properly managed the different clans within the gang for an equilibrium on business interests and turf occupation to avoid fighting among themselves. As such to maintain the social stability.

Corruption was once largely reduced at least on the surface after the establishment of ICAC. Bribing to the police force especially the low ranking officers is basically eliminated. However, gangsters has not gone away but still exist in the society. What they did is just to adapt to the new landscape. While human being as a species evolves so do the gangsters. Triad bosses have learned that to survive they need sustainable income sources. Without the blatant protection from the police, their illegal businesses became riskier. They resorted to legitimate but lucrative businesses such as movie-making industry and show-biz which were in their prime in Hong Kong during 1980-90s'. Triad bosses transformed into legitimate businessmen.

While the triad bosses can make a flamboyant transformation but not that to all gang members. Most of the clan members still rely on illegal businesses for living. On the other hand, their originally illegal businesses are the triad's roots which are still quite profitable so are indispensable. However, gone were the days that these illegal businesses under the police's blatant protection. Their operation could be raided at times and brought losses to them. Therefore the gangs look into every way to counter the police's law enforcement actions and undermine the latter's surveillance on the former. While in most of the time the police is at the upper hand but the gangs will capitalize on every chance to enhance their leeway.

The gangs know well that one of the police force's KPI is crime rate which is largely under the gangs' manipulation. The police is keen on a low crime figure to show to the public that crime is under their control and this is what the gangs can leverage on a bargain with the police in the exchange of leeway to their businesses. On the other hand the police knows if they eradicate the gangsters livelihood then it will just lead to a revenge resulting in rocketed crimes. A surge in crime rate meaning a social instability especially in public order and this brings pressure on the police force's performance. A delicate mutual consensus is therefore made on the level of police's clamping and the gangs self-restrain. Collusion between police and triad has been around for long time. It is just a big misunderstanding if some people think that the public order is maintained under the police's one sided effort. The reality is that it is only a trade-off between the two parties.

A storm is brewing

Last night was definitely a milestone in the on-going anti-extradition bill incident.

When weekend marches in Hong Kong has already become a routine, what happened in last night definitely has entered into a new territory which has profound impact on what is coming in the future. Needless to elaborate more, they were the vandalization on the China Liaison Office(CLO) in Western by men-in-black and the terror attack in Yuen Long MTR station by men-in-white.

Unlike the previous marches and the aftermath confrontation between the minority protesters and police, the march in last night ended up to be the besiege of the CLO and even vandalization on the China national emblem at the CLO. CLO is the quasi China embassy in Hong Kong. The attack was no ordinary besieges elsewhere in the past thus this is something groundbreaking in the sense that it aims explicitly towards China herself. It is already not a local issue about the people's dissatisfaction on the past governance by the Hong Kong government, nor about the trigger event of the objection on the extradition bill. Apparently forces with otherwise objectives have hijacked the movement into a China-targeting campaign. CLO is a symbol of China's sovereignty in Hong Kong and the attack will definitely be seen as a challenge. Bejing's upcoming responds will definitely bring a significant impact on the further development on the already tensed China-Hong Kong relation.

On the other hand, the men-in-white terror attack in Yuen Long was apparently a well organized and premeditated crime aiming to take the chance to reclaim and share the policing power when the Hong Kong police force is busy on dealing with the large scale confrontation elsewhere. There was a saying that prior to the establishment of ICAC in 1974 especially among the 1950-60s', it was the triads who literally ran Hong Kong under the overseeing of the badly corrupted Royal Hong Kong Police. The triads lost its heyday after the corrupted big bosses in the police were forced to retire after the inception of ICAC. The triad bosses transformed into legitimate businessmen, as and when Hong Kong's economy was entering into its golden 30 years since 1980s', along with their original businesses.

These triad bosses have been longing for and looking for any chance for the returning to their heyday. They hold this hope for good reason because China has a favourable feeling towards Hong Kong triads. Deng Xiaoping and the former chief of the Bureau of Public Security said not only once that some triads were patriots. They saw the golden opportunity when the Hong Kong government fell into a lame duck and the credibility and popularity of the police force has largely undermined now. This situation gives rise to their power to negotiate a better position in running their illegal businesses. The random assault in the MTR train and station was just a flexing of its muscle to showcase how much chaos they can make to the law and order in Hong Kong. It also was meant to tell the police who has the real say in the local community.

While the above two events captured most of the public's attention, there were two news should equally deserve the same concern. The first news was that the police has raided an arsenal found with explosives and other weapons in last Saturday and the other news was the announcement made by the Junior Police Officers Association in the middle of this month urging the senior police management should consider the safety of the front line officers when deploying them in dangerous missions. Do they have any impact on the latest development in last Sunday? You bet!

Carrie Lam is really in a big bowl of hot soup now. She has not only got one hand burnt but the other one as well now. She relies on the police force to deal with the men-in-black as well as men-in-white. On the other hand, the public is strongly requesting an independent inquiry commission which is resisted by the police force. She just got stuck in the middle.


Now these two forces are just in their early stages. A bigger storm is yet to come.

Root cause! root cause! root cause!

Thanks to the coaching by the wife of the leg pain-led stepped down former chief executive of HKSAR, Uncle Tung that for important thing, it must be repeated three times. As mentioned in my earlier post that according to a theory of quality management discipline, when something went wrong, the so-called root cause (it's a jargon, in plain words meaning the underlying reason) must be identified so that corrective action (another jargon, meaning the fix) addressing the root cause can be developed in order to tackle the problem.

What happened at night on July 1 in the Legco building here in Hong Kong was certainly a problem which could be viewed in different angles though. People from different sectors have given their comments and views on the issue. Naturally the pro-establishment camp condemned it as outlaw violence while the pan-democrat camp did their best to justify the storm. To be fair, violence is violence. The nature is uncontroversial. What deserves a thorough examination is the root cause though.

Among those public views, except those pretentious high profile condemnation, most of them are quite fair and non-biased. The mainstream view point is that the level of violence is inappropriate,  overdone and unfortunate. However, the culprit is the establishments including the administration and the pro-establishment law makers. There are two meaningful characteristic in this incident, ie., the participants are all youth and the target of the attack is iconic.

Unlike the preceding two marches in June and the one on July 1 day time that participants covered a wide range of ages, but those who stormed in the Legco building at night were all youth. While those three marches were organized, however the storming at night was spontaneous and impulsive. Some argue that this was an organized crime and backed by foreign influences. No sensible person will naively deny that there were no facilitators in that night's actions. Those know also know that Hong Kong has been an action field of intelligence of all sorts when it was still a fishing port. The question is not whether or not on the presence but how influential they were.

There is a words of wisdom saying that maggots follow once meat is rotten (肉先腐而後生蟲) meaning the development of maggots is only the symptom while the underlying cause is that the meat is rotten in the first place as such attracts flies on which eggs are laid. In this case, foreign influences, and facilitators were just catalyst. The maggot is the incident of extradition bill which was just a trigger. The rotten meat is the resentment and grievance accumulated for a long extended period of time among the public especially the youth. When the right timing in the right occasion hits, it just sparkles into infernos venting their anger and resentment just like volcanic eruption.

The root cause of the resentment and grievance are multiple. The storming into the Legco building  can just provide some hints. Since the disqualification on the four pan-democrat law makers, the Legco became the most violent place where the pro-establishment law makers abuse their power, sadly lawfully. When the power balance between the two camps was destroyed. The public just saw how the pro-establishment law makers dominate the chairs of all committees in the legislative council thus manipulated and maneuvered the Legco meetings as if the People's Congress in China. The Legco is literally in de facto failure on the monitoring on the administration governance. The Legco became the pro-establishment camp's exclusive playground and the extension of Beijing's ever increasing inception in local affairs. The public's feeling of inability and frustration is just mounting higher than ever.

Indeed the latest Interpretation on Basic Law by the People's Congress in 2016 and the following judgment by High Court declaring the invalid oaths by the four pan-democrat law makers was the most profound blow on the relationship between Beijing and Hong Kong. That was the blatant interference in broad daylight on the most symbolic icon of Hong Kong's democracy showcase. These four law makers were all first time elected and most of all, they are from those organizations representing those youth voters. The disqualification and the following debarment on their nomination were literally a declaration of war against the youth. This is the good explanation on the ever growing hostility against China among the youth.

Under this landscape, it is somewhat unfortunate for Carrie Lam to become the scapegoat because of her poor maneuver on the extradition bill that brought out such a mess. Anyway, damage was done now. It is just not an easy task to fix it especially there is little room for Lam to play around against Beijing's policy. On the other hand, Beijing is certainly more and more uncomfortable in seeing hostile emotion against it. Coming tighter grip on local affairs is just a reasonable anticipation only.

The verbal war that should has happened within the Legco ended up to be a physical one outside it. Beijing started a war and war is what it got. However, Hong Kong is just trapped into a deadlock and fell into a vicious cycle .

The haves and the don'ts

There are terms to describe the babies born in different range of years like generation X, generation Y and Z. The generation X, following the baby boomer, which was roughly born between 1965 and 1979 while generation Y is between 1980-1994. Generation Z is 1995-2010. The range of years for different generations are not strictly defined though but more or less like an icon of their key straits reflecting that particular era.

Depending on where the babies were born, generation X in the developed countries like the U.S., Japan and Western Europe should be the luckiest group because they enjoyed the sweet from the rapid economic growth after the WWII. While generation Y in the Asian countries like Hong Kong,  Singapore, Taiwan and Korea also shared the enormous growth in the region during their generation period. These four places have once named the four little dragons in Asia. But when it comes to the generation Z it seems the whole generation across the world has lost in somewhere particularly for those whom are approaching towards their adulthood now and they are facing many constraints which were not experienced by their elder generations.

It seems there is a line dividing between the good times and the bad and the line seems to rest in 2008 and this is when the last few batches of generation Z was born. To any economic animals year 2008 is definitely a year not to be forgotten. This was when the U.S. subprime mortgage boom bust and the world finance since then has entered into the uncharted area of QE era. QE literally changed the whole landscape in the financial world which was flooded with hot money. To be more precise, hot money did not flood the real economy but the financial market only therefore inflation on necessities remains low while the prices of financial assets skyrocketed.

One of the phenomenon of financial assets boom is the surge on property price. Hong Kong residential property price shot up more than 2 folds as measured by the Centa-City Leading Index since 2008 and in fact Hong Kong is not alone. Property price in major cities in Canada, Australia, UK have gone up significantly despite of the recent correction. It was the same even for the eye of the storm of subprime mortgage, the U.S., its property price rose again since 2012. The bouyant property price brings huge financial pressure to the home buyers.

On the other hand, stock market across the board has shot up since 2008 when low cost money flooded the markets. One thing remains stagnant though, ie., the salary level, especially among the fresh grads. The phenomenon is attributed to the universal of education which pumped out too many U-grads that scarcity was the word of the past. Governed by the law of supply and demand, the salary growth rate for these U-grads in the past decade was minimal across the board except for a few most sought after sectors like fintech. Despite the overall inflation was not high in the past decade but since the starting salary for U-grads was already not high as comparing to their seniors, compounded with the slow pay rise, generation Z experienced a very difficult time on capital accumulation. Let alone the enjoy first thinking is quite popular among this generation so the habit of regular savings is something they rarely think of. What's worse is that some were already in debts because of student loan on tuition fee even before they could make money.

As depicted by the idea of four quadrants that put forward by Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the series of Rich Dad Poor Dad, wage-earners are the most miserable category. In nowadays's view, generation Z wage-earners undoubtedly can claim the top of the list. Naturally being able to be financial free is the dream of many wage-earners so influenced by Kiyosaki's advocate, many wage-earners resort to investing. The crucial elements in investing are capital and time, supplemented by growth rate. That is also Buffet's idea on value investing that finding a stock with good growth and put in capital then let the compound effect to maximize the benefit.

The point is that investment starts with capital first which is what generation Z is lack of.  However, low cost money jacks up the price of almost all financial assets, stock, property, bonds. Making the entry level of investing high enough that generation Z is dwarfed. On the other hand, as generation Z is approaching to their stage of marriage or parenthood, the need of a dwelling is imminent. When investing can be seen as a luxury but a dwelling for a couple is something of necessity. However, the property price or the corresponding rental level are something they are shy of. They are desperate to invest trying to getting out of the vicious cycle of wage slave but are handicapped by the limited capital and the unaffordable entry level. On the other hand, those existing investors, mostly older than the generation Z, are just riding on the tide of assets buoyant.

Some may argue that this is the best time for start-ups as Internet just revolutionized the landscape of running a business and gaping the distance between entrepreneurs and investors. It is true that starting a business has never been easier than ever. However, entrepreneurship is not something unique in this era. People did that since thousand of years ago and for those who will then they naturally will but for those less adventurous they will just not to. After all, running a business is not the cup of tea for all people nor all young people are capable to. Meanwhile, for those who are not tech savvy, it seems start-up is just something unrelated. The fact is that even nowadays the majority of the young people are still in the employment market.

The low interest rate era just torn the world into two, ie., the haves and the don't haves. The haves will continue to enjoy the assets appreciation and growing wealth while the don't haves just keep suffering from the consequences of soaring assets price. This is the scenario particularly the generation Z, the don't haves, is facing.

This is a miserable generation.


**(Matthew 25:29,  For whoever has will be given more, and they will have an abundance. Whoever does not have, even what they have will be taken from them.)

Monsieur, you would like to go for a duck soup? How about a lame duck

Naturally lame duck is not really the name of a dish but a famous phrase brought up by the late China official responsible for Hong Kong handover, Lu Ping. This was what he cursed on the pre-handover Hong Kong government when the then governor Patten who advocated the electoral reform. The long forgotten term lame duck government came back to live when our "loving" mama, Lam, faces the greatest set back in her life. So is the governance of the SAR government when the same curse makes its second visit.

Following her predecessor C.Y's rout, Lam was appointed in the hope to rebuild a healthy dialogue among the severely torn society with her feminine gentleness. Despite Lam was once labeled as C.Y. 2.0 yet she once did create a honey moon with the opposition camp lawmakers. The hostility among the blue and yellow camp has once calmed down to a certain extent. However, gone were those days when the society had a chance to lick its wound resulting from the political divergence since the emergence of the extradition bill.

Only after Lam's last Saturday announcement on the de facto withdrawal of the Bill, Beijing and the locally China Liaison Office released some routine supportive statements. Pro establishment lawmakers also emerged for speeches as well. Apparently a tone was finalized by the CCP therefore propaganda in all forms started to kick in.

Lam's official description on the handling is suspension but not withdrawal. Of course it will be a secret for good to the public on whether it is Lam's or Beijing's idea on such move. No matter whose, however, this is apparently a bad decision. That failed to act as a clean cut off on the core concern by the public. As expected, the demonstration in the following Sunday still drew hundreds of thousands, if not million, participants. The suspension not only failed to bring the ease on the pressure to the government but otherwise. On the other hand, Lam's apology via the government's announcement is also a stupid action. The apology is criticized as lack of sincerity so is rejected by the public.

In the game of politic, if one's action is not out from autonomy but forced to, this puts him/her in the underdog position. Lam was forced to suspend the bill and to make the apology. This is already a total loss of her alpha image in the past. As and when the pressure on withdrawal of the bill and her personal appearance on apology mounts and Lam is pressurized to follow, her leadership will just go totally bankrupt. Lam will be literally a sunset chief executive and a lame duck government is not far away then.

Chef, a lame duck in hot soup, please.

Her days are numbered (2)

As there is no Legco meetings in these days so the tension in our society is relaxed quite a lot, at least no confrontation between the police and protesters now. Perhaps some casual topics can bring a few doses of relaxation for the once tensed nerve.

Some people may puzzle why Carrie Lam, the C.E., ends up in such a flounder. Naturally despite her repeated reiteration that it was her idea to activate the proposal of the extradition bill, no one has a second thought that it is not a political assignment. So her big mistake is not why she did it but how she maneuvers the process. And the biggest mistake, among all, perhaps is the choice on the other two team members of the trio task force. There is a popular saying that a piggy teammate is a harm more than help. First of all, I think people just has a deeply rooted bias on pigs which are actually not that stupid. Likewise, the two piggy teammates that Lam picked are not low in intellectual indeed. Say, piggy teammate number one, Teresa Cheng the secretary of justice, as an example. What makes her piggy is exactly because she thinks she is highly intelligent.

Before I go too far away, let's get back to the original topic that Lam's biggest mistake that led her sitting in this flounder is her choice on the members of her trio task force, ie., Teresa Cheng and John Lee, the chief of Security Bureau. More precisely speaking, in the first place Lam's choice on Teresa Cheng as the secretary of justice is already a deadly mistake. Integrity scandals has never stopped spinning around this lady since her appointment. For secretary of justice, a position which personal integrity is of utmost importance, the candidate choice should be a flawless, if not perfect, person at least appears to be. In fact it is proven that Cheng became Lam's burden rather than a boost soon after Cheng started her work. Critiques and doubts on her integrity have always undermined her credibility thus leading to the hindrance to the progress on the government's agenda.

So when it came to the time for the promotion of this extradition bill, Cheng, being the secretary of justice, should naturally be playing an important role in explaining the rationale and most of all, selling this idea to the public. Unfortunately her low credibility is a deadly hindrance on this task. On the other hand, her arrogance during her speeches in different occasions not only failed to get the message across but just a disservice. The public did not receive the intended message but just got the feeling from her facial expression that Cheng's subtext was saying hey, you guys know nothing about law, fxxx off, will you?

While piggy teammate Cheng behaved too aggressive but another piggy teammate, John Lee, just did the opposite. His always sleepy face and the monotone on speeches just projected an image that he is reluctant on this job or disagrees on the idea that he is selling. The most extreme example is that in the occasion when being questioned in the Legco meeting that whether he really believes there is fair trial in China, Lee refused and avoided to give a clear answer but just responded that fair trial is written in China's law. His response gave away that even himself does not genuinely believe in what he is promoting. This is the classic example of piggy teammate is harmful more than helpful.

Lam's piggy teammates are doing the disservice but then how about her master? Beijing's respond on this recent social unrest is quite bizarre and is unlike the past incidents like the movement of Occupy Central, disqualification on opposition camp lawmakers and the 2016 Mongkok commotion. So far there was only one mild supportive announcement from the central government. Unlike those past firm and definite statements showing explicit support on what were done by the HKSAR government, on the contrary the China embassy in London, during an interview, even said Beijing did not at all instruct Lam to do that. Apparently in this case Beijing is keeping a quite clear distance from Lam. Likewise, the pro-establishment law makers' unusual silence since last Sunday indicates a clear sign that Lam has been abandoned, both locally or by Beijing.

Carrie, you are a dead man now.

Her days are numbered

Emotion changes rapidly. What is happening in Central now is a good example. But is it really without any clue? Opposition sentiment mounted after the mega protest ever in Hong Kong's history in the past Sunday. Yet the HKSAR chief executive, Carrie Lam, still stood firm saying the second reading of the Extradition Bill remains to be examined in Legco in today without any re-consideration on amendment or whatsoever. That sparkled the public's anger which spreads just like hill fire on a dry savanna. Proposals of all kinds like strikes and besieging the Legco building popped up shortly after Lam's announcement.

Frankly speaking, I feel pity on Lam because despite her firm stance on the issue but I don't think, nor do the majority, that it is really her own idea to wrap this bill up in an extraordinary pace. While Lam thinks herself and perhaps her team are smart but the public is not dumb neither. We all know what this Bill is all about despite Lam repeatedly said people does not really understand and even are misled. But folks, be pragmatic, what do you want her to say, being a stooge? Lam, in different occasions, reiterated that getting the Bill done is not a political mission at all but just about the justice on the Taiwan murder case. This saying is the activation of the proposal of this Bill but despite of different workable ways to get around this Bill were suggested by some knowledgeable experts yet were all turned down. Lam now stands in a dilemma that she just neither cannot withdraw from her initial advocate nor can she admit that the Bill is indeed a political mission.

Please, give me a way out, will you? Perhaps this is what Lam is crying out loud inside her mind. But don't worry, madam, your ordeal will soon be over. When Lam, at the beginning stage, stressed that it is hers and her administration's own idea to raise this issue up but not an assigned task, I thought it was really a clumsy excuse saying so because this is something an insult to people's wisdom. But now I realize that indeed this is a "smart" move. Sorry but not for Lam but for Beijing only. The reason is that Lam literally acts as a firewall between the central government and this incident. Imagine when things here in Hong Kong get further ugly, it is totally Lam's fault because it is her who brought the whole thing up. When all anger fires at her then her stepping down could be an exit of the incident. Let's say if the Bill is passed then Beijing gets what it wants and if Lam gets her finger burnt, Beijing can stay at distance with her and at most to lose a stooge only and that what stooges are for. Take a look of uncle Tung's leg ache, C.Y.'s sudden knowledge about the need on him from his family and Tsang's imprisonment then you will know that disposable is the name of the game. Her fate was sealed in day one of her appointment.

Sorry, stooge, it is your time.

How many decades one can see throughout his life?

The title of this post was an once very popular lines in an Hong Kong production TV drama. Ten years is indeed a long period of time, 120 months or about 480 weeks. Then how about 30 years? For 30 years people has been waiting. Waiting for the voice of conscience, if there is, from an administration on what has happened 30 years ago. Yet, in vain, sadly.

How many 30 years can one see throughout his life then? Three, at most, for most people. 30 years is a very long period of time so some people has changed their stance, because of interests or tiredness. Some said life must go on so one should not bathe in the sorrow. Some others said had there been no crack down then the country could has fallen into pieces cos things were losing control. They may be right but it was about hundreds of life. Hundreds of young life that were passionate on their country yet were ended in a brutal way by the regime that runs the country. Isn't it a tragical irony?

It is still a taboo at there even after 30 years. Let alone not just a single word of confession from the authority. There were once a naive wishful thinking that as time went by and hopefully they would improve so there would be the day of vindication but the reality is that it just went the other round. It is because they know clearly the root cause of that movement is still there. The trigger was anti-corruption but thing is getting even worse 30 years later. This provides no ground for them to retreat because it could possibly rock the legitimacy of their ruling. In a place where state leaders are inevitably wise and brilliant so impossible to be wrong, then the culprit can only be those whom against the formers.

In the quality management discipline, there is a theory saying that for any faulty quality issue to be corrected. The so-called root cause, ie., the fundamental reason, must first be identified thus a corresponding so-called corrective action, ie., the solution, can be incorporated to address the quality issue which hopefully is then resolved. If the social movement happened 30 years ago is seen as a glitch along the path of China's progress towards a sophisticated country, it was something bound to happen and not really a big deal relative to the major direction of development. The regime could has handled it in a more humane way. In the worst scenario that even if the movement was still ended in a brutal way, a sincere repent and a faithful corrective action should be able to earn the forgiveness internally and abroad.  Unfortunately the regime not only is reluctant to recognize it was their fault on the loss of those precious life but also did every effort to cover up what has happened. Suppression one over another were used to clamp the people's anger and desperate arising from the series of suppression. The regime has missed the critical timing of repent and did the opposite of the right things. It literally is pushing herself in the path of no return and towards a dead end.

The situation is a bit bizarre now because the regime is facing a dilemma that people might not easily forgive its loads of wrong-doings even if it is willing to confess now but if it goes further along the existing way of suppression. It is literally building a time bomb of its own and it is ticking.

The regime is buying time now hoping people's memory will fade out and waiting for a miracle. But will there be one?




**This post is dedicated to those people who made tremendous sacrifice on the day of May 35 in 1989 which exists only in China's official calendar.

A noisy month

May is about over with just a few days to come and this month is really a noisy one particularly on this small island. Politically the extradition bill still captures the attention of the society here in Hong Kong thanks to the effort of the opposition camp and the involvement of the foreign embassies and chambers of commerce that make the issue became an international concern. As the dual committee arose in the Island's law making body, the Legco, that heated up in the local news report, the proposed bill received a greater concern over the society that now not only the law sector and business sector but the general walks of life has also paid more attention to the development of the issue.

This May is also a remarkable month in the financial market, particularly in the stock market as the HSI has once dipped up to 2912 points from the month's high, sees the biggest plunge in this year following a straight four months rally. This is the outcome of the "sudden" worsening of the trade tension between the U.S. and China. On the other hand in a wider scope, the recent various bans and restrictions on the China's biggest communication company, Huawei, remain the center piece of the trade negotiation.

Politics and economy are a twin as the development of either one heavily depends or influences the other. The above three major issues that dominant the headlines are in fact just about one thing, the combat between the world's lead and its challenger.

As I put it in my previous different posts that the trade issue between the U.S. and China has never really been the focus but just the wrestling of national power only. As the U.S. became more and more rocking on its attitude to close a trade deal with China and exercising its influence over different technical and standardization bodies and tech companies to imposing delisting of memberships and banning on supplies of parts and services to Huawei, the picture became very clear now that the U.S.'s strategy is to clamp China's rising by limiting the latter's edge on the 5G technology.

Prior to its dominance over the world affairs, the U.S. has once had a hard time under the suppression of the British Empire and took the chance of the WWII that badly hit the latter's economic strength then replaced it to become the world's leader. From the lesson of the fall of the British Empire, the U.S. knows well its leadership is not granted and is deserved well protection, should it remain dominant. The U.S. also knows well its world leadership relies on two key dominance, ie., military muscle and the U.S. dollar landscape. China's 5G technology is the U.S.'s Achilles heel in military strength, and perhaps even in commercial sectors as well as and when more and more applications employ 5G technology which the U.S. does not has a say. That rocks the foundation of the U.S. "empire" from the cornerstone. This is something must not happen, from the U.S.'s standpoint.

The U.S. has bred its own monster by allowing it to join the WTO thus flourishes it into a 1.4 billion people market. The once little brother has grown up to a big guy now, big enough to test his muscle and to challenge the Uncle Sam. This is going to be a battle of life or death, as an empire. As Trump's words put it, it is not China's fault. She has every right to take down the U.S just like what the latter did on the British Empire. It is just the negligence(?) or the palliative by Trump's predecessors that put the U.S. in position where it is in now. Now Trump does what he thinks right. There are many more somethings yet to come. Just forget the trade war. Embrace the turbulence yet to come, the play is far from over!

∵A=B, ∴B=A, or is it?

For those who are not familiar with mathematical equations, perhaps a little explanation is needed on the subject of this post. The symbol ∵ and ∴ are the signs of logical argument and mathematical proof. ∵ means because and ∴ means therefore. So the former part of the subject in wordings reads because A=B therefore B=A.

Now back to the topic of this post. Have you ever heard someone said he/she really wants or does not mind to pay a big amount of tax (usually means salary tax) because only those who has a high salary then needs to pay high tax. This saying sounds quite logical because unless tax evasion is employed, if everything equal, higher salary can only lead to higher payable tax. Therefore it is always true when someone gets a high tax demand note then he/she must has already got a high salary job meaning this person is a high income one. So the equation of high income tax=high income is valid but then what if we swap the two sides of the equation into high income=high income tax, then is it necessarily valid as well?

This is something like the paradox in logic saying my father has beard so as long as one is bearded then he is my father. Apparently this is not true and the logic is too simple. Then how is it when it comes to the second equation in the above paragraph? The answer also seems to be not always true, at least in Hong Kong. Or be more precise, the equation is mostly applicable to salary income but not others. The reason is very simple because only salary income has a high co-relation with tax payable.

As high salary income leads to high income tax then is it still wise for anyone saying does not mind to pay a big amount of tax? Or more specifically speaking, is it still wise to wish to pay high tax for the sake of a high salary job? High salary individuals seem to be lucky as they have an high pay jobs but indeed they are the victims in the existing taxation. High salary income is bound to pay high tax but high income from other forms does not necessarily lead to high income tax at least here in Hong Kong where capital gain and interest/dividend income for an individual, as long as not as a result of business operation, are not subjected to tax.

The traditional thinking is that one should do their best in schooling for the sake of entering a good university which usually renders a better chance of getting a job in a well established corporation. When one works hard then hopefully can climb up along the corporate ladder to reach a high pay job. However, as high pay jobs are bound to paying high salary tax and due to the unfair taxation to wage-earners, for the same amount of income the tax payable between the salary income and interest/dividend income could be a big difference.

For all average wage-earners the disadvantages of earning a living with a job is easily understood like the ever increasing job insecurity, no autonomy on working time, salary often lags behind the inflation...etc. When putting the tax payable into account, it seems there is one more reason to rethink whether it is really smart hoping to pay high tax because of a high pay job unless one does not mind to share the hard earned money with the government.

Cash is king? or cash is cost?

The former part of the subject of this post is so well known that no elaboration is needed. It is so true when the market has crashed and everything appears to be so cheap yet if someone is still so stuffed with cash in his pocket then he can shop whatever he likes. This is applicable to recession or in any financial market bust. So it seems cash is really almighty in the financial world, or is it?

Naturally cash is good and I like the purchasing power that comes with it. It is always a great relief when you know you have enough cash to meet all the existing or possible bills. On the other hand, knowing that you can hunt for bargains when the market crashes and the feeling of being in the upper hand in a deal negotiation is so brilliant that no one will question about the beauty of having much cash in hand.

However, any one who has a little financial knowledge also understands cash does not come without down side. Inflation erodes cash's purchasing power is just an ABC. On the other hand, cash is non-productive meaning it does not generate yield is also another common sense especially in this still relatively low interest rate environment. 10 years U.S. bonds just pays out some 2% interest only, let alone that of the humble saving account which cash usually sits in.

So apparently albeit the lovely side of cash, holding it, especially excessively, is not without costs. The erosion on the purchasing power against inflation is a very real and cruel cost. The opportunity cost of hold cash but not putting it in profit-producing investments is another one.

The above two drawbacks of sitting on cash are quite obvious, there are also other costs hidden from our sight though. To many people having plenty of cash means being wealthy. Let's imagine how happy one will be if the bank account balance shows a string of zeros following the first few digits. This wealthy feeling could easily breeds the desire of luxury indulgences if one lacks self discipline. Naturally a reward to self for the achievement of hardworking is reasonable but when it becomes a habit then it could be hazardous to wealth accumulation though.

Perhaps to those disciplined people the even bigger harm of holding a lot of cash is FOMO and the subsequent reckless investing decisions. Imagine if one closed all his/her position by last year end in the expectation on bargain hunting resulting from a further market crash but saw the market bounced significantly from the valley then how stressful he/she is now. The regret could even brings quite some sleepless nights as well. This state of mind is not only hazardous to both mental and physical health but could easily lead to improper investing decisions that could bring loss, rather than catching up the missed potential profit.

So while cash is still king but cash is also cost as well. The key is maintaining a proper proportion of cash vs assets. I used to write a post how do you classify your investments regarding the classification of assets which also explains this aspect in another perspective.

It's not a big deal, or is it?

There is never shortage of talk of the town in this small island here in Hong Kong. However, there is one recent topic which receives quite different attention among the spectrum of different walks of life. To one end of the spectrum like the housewives (no offense) or primary school students, they just react as what the subject of this post puts it. However on the other end like the legal sector or the business sector sees it as if the opening of the Pandora Box. Yes, it is the proposed bill of extradition.

The Hong Kong government claims the proposed bill (Bill) is the response to a murder case which the victim and the suspect are both Hong Kong people but happened in Taiwan so even if the suspect now came back to Hong Kong but the jurisdiction here in Hong Kong cannot act upon it. The Hong Kong government said therefore the Bill was proposed to close the loophole and to bring the justice back.

Naturally many people is upset about the situation that the suspect could escape from court trial and feel pity for the victim. The case happened in last March and the Hong Kong government reacts unprecedentedly fast to propose the Bill in just one year. Its enthusiasm in this case brought skepticism on its motive by the public, especially the opposition camp. Their doubt did not come with no ground. The Bill not only addresses this Taiwan murder case but extends the access of extradition to China. It is indeed a mutation of the national security law which has not yet been established in Hong Kong but is wanted so badly by Beijing.

This is another example of the manifestation that Beijing is tightening its grip onto Hong Kong's governing. The chief executive of HKSAR, Carrie Lam, has made it clear that the timing for the proposal of the nation security law (Law) is yet to come in light of the society currently is still so divided. Lam sees it so right and indeed the Law will definitely receive the most severe resistance even in the consultation stage, if any. However, Beijing is losing its patience and this murder case just gave rise to the chance to have it done to an even higher level in another way.

The Bill, if passed, virtually allows Beijing to fetch anybody back to China even if he/she is at the other side of the border. Despite it was claimed that the extradition must be applied under the alleged offense that is relevant in both China and Hong Kong and the Hong Kong law court can act as a screening gate. However, the screening function is merely on the inspection of due course in procedure but not to examine whether the application is made with sound and reasonable ground. Given its notorious judicial system so the fact is that Beijing can just name an offense then it can extradite someone whom is, as long as, deemed as a hostility by China. Hong Kong will no longer be a safe place for anyone whom is not welcome by China. Furthermore, the even more evil part of this Bill is that Beijing can even fetch anyone indirectly from countries where Hong Kong maintains extradition agreement.

Whether it is really not a big deal or a Pandora Box, it all depends on how one sees China's judicial system. The point is when yours and your family's well being rest on your decision, are you bold enough to bet on it? Anyway, at least there are two good things. One of them is that there will not be any more secret kidnapping to China in the dark in the future and on the other hand, the long awaited property market crash is very likely to happen cos with decades of preparation, many Hong Kong property owners are holders of foreign passport or residency now so a new round of exodus is at brink if the Bill is passed.

Trade war? A trick!

I have posted two articles about this topic and my view was very clear since the first post that the trade war between the U.S. and China was not really about the trade but the wrestling on the status of  No. 1 nation. Not long ago Trump said he may postpone the deadline on the elevation of the tariff on the China imports because the talks between the delegations of the two countries went well. Trump once stood very strongly that no extension would be given but his latest move brought me an extra perspective on this issue.

Allow me to detour the subject for a while. I like movie watching and nowadays movies market is dominated by Hollywood productions which heroic movies is definitely one of the blockbusters. In this category of movie, the story is usually about an imminent crisis or catastrophe which the U.S., if not the whole world, was facing and it could cost tens of thousands or even millions of life should it finally happen. The situation was pressing but seemed no way out and the clock was ticking. Then there came the hero who solved the problem and saved the world. This is the typical formula of Hollywood heroic movies.

I guess Trump is also a heroic movies fan but he not only likes watching but is also very much interested in screenwriting. He knows the Americans is fond of hero so he wrote a movie, the Trade War, in which he is the male lead. In Hollywood movies the U.S. presidents all were portrait as patriots who took the role to protect the nation and the people as their unshirkable duty. In his movie Trump created a crisis out from nothing and then fix it in order to win the applause. It is true there is a huge trade imbalance with China but as long as China keeps using that printed matter which is called Dollar, that they got from the trade surplus, to buy the U.S. government bonds. The trade deficit is only a matter of accounting entry but the fact is that China is financing the U.S. government in the exchange for the room of development. China leaders and all previous U.S. presidents knew what it is all about.

However Trump highlighted the trade imbalance and raised it up to a level that almost became a national crisis. He then directs the play of trade talk and naturally the ending of the story is that he wins the victory and the country is saved. What a national hero! Looking at the way he manipulates the progress of the trade talk I truly believe he is directing his own best movie of the year. Naturally Trump's effort in producing this movie is not just out of fun but for the next term of presidency. He is passionate to serve the country? I can't tell cos I don't know him but he can probably direct a few more "movies" in another four years if he wins the election again. On the other hand just imagine the market sentiment rocks like roller coasters along with the good and bad news that came with the trade talk and it means the market will see many more ups and downs to come if Trump managed to grab another term of presidency, isn't it a great chance for huge profit if there is a genius who can time the market right?

China-isation

It's been quite a while I did not write any post because I was not in a good mood in writing in the past month. Things happened in the recent months were rather depressing. Despite the weather in the past Lunar New Year was exceptional good but the air pressure, I meant political, here in Hong Kong has never been so high.

Among the several major issues casting a very dark shadow on Hong Kong's future, the Shatin Central Link construction scandal is definitely one of them. Apart from the heavily delay and the huge over-budget, the scandal really destroyed the reputation on Hong Kong's integrity which was restored through decades of effort by 2 to 3 generations after the establishment of ICAC in 1974 when prior to its inception, corruption in both public and private sector was a norm. However, unfortunately after the returning to China, moral in this aspect started to erode quickly. In fact Timothy Tong, the ex chef of ICAC, himself was blamed on his misconduct in 2010 as being a civil servant and just narrowly escaped from prosecution. Since then the confidence on ICAC from the general public was largely undermined and perhaps that was the very first case which was brought to light that China-isation on Hong Kong is really happening.

Now back to this Shatin Central Link scandal, despite the culprit is Leighton but in fact the black sheep is MTR, an once renowned corporation not only in its technical know-how but also in its corporate governance for decades. Gone were the the days now that even an once well managed corporation ran into such a management crisis or strictly speaking, a fall on management ethic. It is still unknown who in the company should be held responsible yet and most of all, the root cause of the scandal and the likelihood of any criminal act element. For an once starred corporation to melt down so quickly there must be a change on the company culture which is actually the manifestation of the values and mindset of the top management. With the ever escalating integration with China, values and mindset of Hong Kong business leaders are inevitably compromised. Rigorism and professionalism are something dispensable in nations of rule by will, sadly also a sign of Hong Kong's China-isation.

Another similar case on construction scandal is the HK-Zhuahai-Macau bridge. Quite a number of the quality assurance forms were submitted by the contractor only after months of the opening of the bridge. These forms should have been submitted after the completion of a certain construction job and prior to the commencement of the next step to ensure the quality standard was well met. These forms are for quality assurance mechanism and no further work should has been commenced prior to the inspection and approval on these forms yet the fact is that things went through without them. However, the secretary of the Transport and Housing who should be the watchdog of the infrastructure yet just trying to lighten the case as a late submission only and tried to comfort the general public the quality and safety of the construction were not compromised. An originally policing role now turned into an escort of the malpractice. The reason? The contractor is a China company and most of all, this was the result on the expedition on construction completion meeting the wish of Beijing.

Deng Xiao Ping laid down the arrangement of "one country, two systems" for the returning of HK and set the policy of "no change for 50 years". Naturally no one will believe in naive that changes will happen only after 2047 but now it is just 20+ years after the returning yet Hong Kong is very much alike China now in one way or another. Hong Kong's value to China lies in its difference from China. I think the top boss in Beijing also wants to make HK different from China so that China can capitalize on this difference as a platform to deal with the western world. However, what the top boss cannot stop is the homogenization of HK towards China when people in HK, especially in businesses or government, has more and more interaction with the mainlanders when China economy is in much larger scale and much more influential than is the HK's. Leaders in both private and public sectors in Hong Kong are just too vulnerable when facing the tremendous financial benefits for the former and the pleasing culture towards the higher ranking officials for the latter. China-isation is bound to happen.

China influences are no doubt getting stronger and stronger in Hong Kong. Like it or not, the statement "one country, two systems" has become just a slogan more than ever. The above three cases have a common point, ie., China element. Tong hung around with Chinese officials closely. MTR has a lot of projects in China while the Bridge contractor is a China company. Shouldn't those people advocate and promote integration with China stop and re-think? There is one Chinese wisdom of words, 近朱者赤，近墨者黑 （One will be homogenized with people whom the one hangs around, be they good or bad.). When one day Hong Kong completely integrates with China, is that what Beijing wants and to their best benefits?