Is it gonna work?(2)

It is more than one month since my last post with the same heading and the answer to the question became quite clear now. Meanwhile today the social unrest just went into a new milestone following the death of an university student who mysteriously fell from height in a car park building during a police-protestors confrontation a week ago. The news of the student's death three days ago triggered a new round of mayhem throughout Hong Kong territory. However, the situation in today turned much sour than it was in the past few days when a police officer shot down a protestor live fire with his pistol and another traffic police officer charged into protestors three times with his motorbike.

Today's shooting is the second incidence following the shooting in last month. Unlike the last shooting that the protestor was engaging in action towards the police officer, the victim in today's shooting just followed and watched about two meters away from the police officer while some other protestors were having bodily contact with that officer. Apparently that officer has burst into loss of control while being confronted and under stress. Compounded with the traffic police's reckless charging with his motorbike, it will unavoidably tear further apart the police force with the public as live round footage went viral in the Internet. The public's condemnation on the police's violence puts Carrie Lam, the so far CE of the HKSAR, into a dilemma. The police force is Lam's sole reliance on the armed force backing but it seems the Force is going to be out of her control.

It seems there is a delicate shift of dominance between Lam's administration and the police force. As and when the social unrest goes more and more furious Lam's administration is getting more and more dependent on the police force to deal with the mayhem. Every seasoned business owner knows that when a particular staff became indispensable that it will be a big headache of office governance. This is the exact situation that Lam is trapped into particularly when Beijing openly expressed it's recognition on the HK police force's work. This puts Lam in a more vulnerable position in term of office politics. It seems both parties are aware of this situation well or at least the front line police officers do so therefore they enjoy much freedom and leeway on the exercising excessive force while Lam is quite cautious and refrained on commenting the situation.

Some people may say the stationed PLA is Lam's last resort so she is not that hindered in under dog. However, the PLA is not under her command so the deployment is solely up to Beijing's decision while the latter has a big concern of the use of PLA on HK soil especially amid the closing negotiation on a deal with the U.S. on the trade talk. On the other hand, Beijing has a much bigger concern on the deployment of PLA at this moment when the police force is under condemnation. The latter may interpret the action is a distrust on them or even a disposal after ordeal. They are in their some thirty thousands and most of all, armed. Their grievance is the least thing Beijing does not want to see.

There is a Chinese saying to describe someone is in a dilemma as the riding on a tiger's back, it is not easy to keep on riding in one hand but dangerous to cast off on the other hand. Where is the tiger? Who is riding?  Hm....