Where do you draw the line?

In the last weekend I watched an old movie, A Few Good Men, which was casted by Tom Cruise and Jack Nicholson. The story was about two Marines who were charged with murder on their fellow in the naval base camp in Guantanamo Bay. The two Marines assualted the fellow under an extrajudicial punishment in that base camp on soldiers whom made mistakes and they did that under the order by the base commander via the soldiers' superior's instruction in an unofficial manner and off record. The punishement accidentally led to the death of the victim. The two soldiers were trialed in the court-martial and Cruise was their trial lawyer.

As a movie, after twists and turns Cruise finally succeeded to defend the soldiers from the charge of murder because their simply performed an order from the superior whom in turn received instruction from the commander. People must be aware that an order from superior is absolute in places like millitary camp where obidience is everything. To defend the soldiers from their charges Cruise cleverly guided the commander to admit in the trial that it was him whom gave the order. The commander was held responsible and arrested for the death of his soldier due to his instruction of the extrajudicial  punishment. The movie is with Hollywood's usual formula that justice will be served and bad guys will be held accountable on their wrong-doings. The title of the movie is self-explanatory and Cruise and his team are these good men. Again as a movie, the ending of the movie is commercially uplifting because it meets people's quest for justice. The innocents were freed and the bad guys tasted his own medicine. 

In the movie Cruise was protraited as good man while Nicholson, the commander, a bad guy. In real life world it is not that simple and straight foward though. Cruise was a good man because he helped the innocent soldiers while Nicholson was bad because he managed his camp in stringent millitary dicipline. He gave the order of punishment to the victim because the latter went over the chain of command to peach his fellow to the HQ in exchange of his transfer out from the camp. This move pissed his commander off. 

The movie focused on the commander's responsibility of giving the punishment order which indirectly led to the death of the victim, I view the case with another perspective though. Cruise, an hero in the movie, brought a naval base commander to jail. Did he really preserve the justice? Meanwhile did he preserve the country's interests when he brought a commander whom played an important role in protecting the country into jail? As a lawyer in the movie, Cruise did his job successfully to defend his clients, the two Marines and did it beautifully. However, as such the country lost a naval commander despite whom did made mistake in giving the order. 

To further expand the scenario, in the movie the incident happened in the peace time so perhaps it did not significantly impact the level of national defence by putting an naval commander behind bars but what if the same commander did the same thing but in the time when the country was in war with rival nation? Will the loss of the nation as a whole outweigh the preservation of justice? What if the country loses in the war because of the absence of the commander? Will the same lawyer that preserves justice still be an hero in such case? If justice can be compromised because the commander is indispensable in war time then is justice something negotiable?

Where do you draw the line?

 

 

A weird day

 

This post is deliberately uploaded after the weird day in the calendar that only exists in a nonsense place under the nonsense regime to avoid the potential infringement of a nonsense law.

Nowhere else in the world where this particular date exists as 35th of May in the calendars in its territory. Sadly a small but renown island joined this nonsense place in this year. 

People in the Island was doing the same thing over the 31 years in the memorial of a tragedy happened on that day in a far away city 32 years ago. It became illegal and is strictly prohibited only starting from this year. The most ridiculous thing was that even people did not attend the prohibited assembly but wearing the specific attire or holding a lit candle in other locations would still be deemed as advocate of that assembly therefore would subject to arrest. Coercion of arrest and prosecution spread a white terror.

The autocratic regime might has thought it succeeded in making that incident to be out of sight, out of mind. Yet coercion is a double-edged sword per se. Coercion can stop people from making action or speech but it can never stop people from thinking. On the other hand, not doing or saying does not mean people will forget. Grievance will only grow stronger under coercion and it will just become a ticking time-bomb. 

Many nations made mistakes along their history. Only those who are brave enough to face their mistake and sincerely appologize for their wrong-doing can earn the respect from the world. Those who fail to do that no matter how strong its economy is, it remains a coward or at worst a rogue in nature whom is teased by the world.

People will not forget.

Killing two birds with one stone

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With the passage of the electoral reform on the HKSAR's elections in the National People Congress's standing committee meeting back a while ago, the whole electoral tradition and the political landscape in Hong Kong is going to change fundamentally, for good.

There are many ways to get the details of the Reform for people whom are really interested in it. In a nutshell, Beijing made many changes in the electoral system in the HKSAR to achieve the so-called Administering Hong Kong by Patriots by primarily screening out the candidates from the opposition camp through the reform on the nomination committee so that these candidates' nomination is a mission impossible in the first place. The aim is further secured by the newly formed candidates qualification censoring committee which members are the high officials in the HKSAR administration. Any opposition camp candidates who are so lucky to get enough nomination will then be kicked away by the Committee so they will never get an entrance ticket to run any elections, say for the District Councils or for the HKSAR Chief Exective. 

Local commentators mainly focus on the above affect on the opposition camp and perhaps it was so well camouflaged that Beijing's intention of killing two birds with one stone was concealed. Naturally sweeping the opposition from the institutional structure is one the of bird that Beijing is keen to kill, however, there is yet another one which Beijing wanted to get rid of all along, ie., the locally grown big masters namely the property developer tycoons. 

Among the changes on the constitution of the nomination committee, apart from the merger or even removal of the sectors which are opposition camp dominated, there is also shrinkage on the seats from the local business sector. Local business sector has been enjoying a big influence on the policies of the HKSAR's adminstration all along especially at the beginning of the reunion of Hong Kong to China. In their hey days, the big four local property developer families and with their backed Chief Executive, Donald Tsang, acted almost like the quasi CE in the HKSAR administration. It is also in Tsang's administration period basically there was no plan at all on the new land formation which in return led to the severe housing supply shortage in the following years to come. This problem became one of the deep-seated conflicts which the Hong Kong society as a whole is still facing as well as the huge profit for these property developer families. 

The situation did not go without Beijing's awareness but she relied on these big masters to help maintain Hong Kong's stability especially the economic stability which was mainly under the control of the Big Fours, let alone China's economic strength back 15 years ago was not as high as it is now. Everybody who knows the characteristic of the CCP knows that Deng Xiaoping, China's modern political architect, who has laid a national policy to hold the temper for the sake of economic development first. Beijing was just waiting for the right time when she is strong enough to stand on her feet and shake off the reliance on the Big Fours.

In fact Beijing's plan was not unnoticed, at least the Hong Kong's wealthiest person, nicked name Superman Li, did know what the game is all about. Li is known as the smartest businessman in Hong Kong and he is so knowledgeable and well known for his sharp vision over the global as well as local political and economic future developments. Li also knows the CCP's traditional characteristic of kicking away the used ladders as what they did to those partriotic capitalists after the founding of the new red China back 60 years ago. He has started the divesting from Hong Kong almost a decade ago and diversified an heavy investment in the U.K. instead. People might admire Li's foresight and insight when they see what happened on Alibaba in China now. See my earlier post Ant-man has been taken down

Under the CCP's ruling, any potential threat to its governing must be removed. It is only a matter of time if it has not happened yet. 

 

It is still Hong Kong, or is it?

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It's been almost two months that the Blog was not updated. Partly because I was busy on personal affair but mostly due to the concern over personal security that a prudent examination on the enactment of the Hong Kong version of National Security Law(NSL) here in Hong Kong is necessary. 

A drastic change on Bejing's attitude towards the pandemocratic camp figures since the beginning of this year was seen. A massive arrest on those figures whom have taken part into the 2020 pro-democracy primaries which aimed to narrow down the candidates list for the Legco general election which was supposed to be held in last September but was proponed by a year under the excuse of the epidemic. The accusation is that the Primiries is the action of subversion of the Adiministration in HK and the Regime therefore an violation of the NSL.

Naturally the accusation is controversial depending one's stance. Anyway, the beauty of being in power is that law is interpreted as the regime's will, let alone an autocratic one. On the other hand, this is the bonus of the effective containment of the epidemic in China who gained much confidence over the polarity on the economic development between her and her western counterparts so she can do whatever she wants at will blatantly with little worry about the reaction of the latter.

On the other hand, Beijing reiterates Hong Kong's affair is domestic issue so she has absolute discretion over the running on Hong Kong. As a matter of fact this statement is damn right that Hong Kong is part of China so arresting those whom are accused with involvement of subversion on the regime is completely lawful. The definition of the actions relating to subversion under the Law is controversial though.

Alongside with the massive arrest, during the China National People Congress meeting which is being held in Beijing now that motion has been raised to reform the Legco Election Committee in a large extent. The reform is meant to exclude any dissident the chance of being a lawmaker, or not even a candidate, for the coming Legco general election in this year. All in all heavy-handed measures were or going to be implemented just for the sake to eradicate the root of opposition out of Hong Kong, in name of administering Hong Kong by patriots. 

This is by far the most massive crackdown on the opposition after Hong Kong's reunion to China yet the main street is calm, or indifferent, leaving Beijing's mouthpieces doing their propaganda alone.  Apparently the NSL has achieved the intended chilling effect as the public has learned the way for self-protection under power.

Propaganda says Hong Kong returned to orderly from chaos due to the NSL. Yet the peace appears at the surface is indeed with an unrest undercurrent beneath it. The silence is the just result of authority which can suppress the expression of will but fails to stop the minds from forming. Most of the HongKongers are not keen in politics but many of them do not buy the political system in the North as well. However, many traces gave away telltales that Hong Kong is really integrating with China, livelihood as well as political system. 

The general public especially the grass-root is silence because they know they are bounded to stay and this is the only preservation to stay afloat under the authority. However, for those who are above average they have more alternatives. It is evidenced that quite a number of nations not only have extended their friendly attitude but some substantial measures to cater to the worry of the Hong Kong people. Naturally critiques or conspiracy comments are nothing short of from the propaganda again. To be honest, most of these potential citizens are top of the cream so welcome doors opened to them is nothing but just normal in the sense of mutual benefit.

Immigration is not cheap so those who are qualified are usually those sought after talents wanted by whatever countries no matter the east or west. America is the best showcase to examplify how the inflow of talents and capital can boost a country. Sadly these talents will just turn their back to their motherland but just fled to assist the counterpart due to politics.

Apart from the case of America, Hong Kong is renowned with its past achievement of economic success out from a formerly fishing village due to the influx of migrants and capital in exile before the red China was founded. It was talents that make this miracle happened. Perhaps China does not worry about the brain-drain because there are plenty supply from the north. In fact, there has been scheme introducing expertises from China in place all along. As a matter of fact those mostly western values-contaminated talents are anti-communism which is dyed in the wool.  It is not a bad idea to rinse Hong Kong with heavy-handed measures.

After all, One Country Two Systems is just a slogan and no matter the previously advocated Administering Hong Kong by HongKongers or the lastest version Administering Hong Kong by patriots are merely propaganda. What China needs Hong Kong to be is just a name claimed to be different from the autocratic regime so it can help facilitating between the regime and the western world for the sake of capital and technologies. It does not really matter who are living there and who are running it. As long as it is still called Hong Kong.

Or is it?

Light at the end of tunnel?

The most talk about issue locally here in Hong Kong remains the epidemic and the vaccine in the pipeline. With the absence of the dictatorship type of containment measures that is practiced in China, the western world as well as the democratic countries in Asia including Hong Kong are still struggling on the recent wave of the novel coronavirus. With the recent delivery of the vaccine, the whole world just sees the vaccine as the silver bullet to the dilemma as well as the economic resurgence. It seems as long as the vaccine is widely available to the general public then life will resume to normal so will the economy be.

Maintaining hope in life is important as to the drive to overcome difficulties, looking through rose-tinted glasses might bring more bad than good though. Let alone whether the so far major three vaccines available are proven to be effective is still not yet clinically certified, in fact none of them has finished the phrase III testing. The vaccine efficacy rate are all self claimed by the producers only. The most important point remains none of the producer is able to confirm the length of protection, even if the self-claimed efficacy rate is really valid. 

The whole world is forced to gamble on the effectiveness of these vaccines, sadly the price is that a vast numbers of people is to be the guinea pigs. According to the news, the vaccines do not have the supposed reception from the general public and this comes with good reason because despite the immediate serious side-effect rate after the vaccination so far is not high but since these vaccines have yet finished the normal and official testing process, the risks on the long term side-effect cannot be ruled out. 

The other concern on these vaccines is that the protection is unlike the other previously proven ones for other diseases that they can provide a comprehensive protection like immunity to infection and stops transmission even if infected, these three vaccines are not capable to stop transmission, at least no confirmation has ever made by the producers. Therefore even people take risk to be vaccinated yet the transmission chain will not be broken even if many people are vaccinated because the best self-claimed efficacy rate is 95% by the Pfiser followed by 94.1% by Moderna while Sinovac's has only 79% as self-claimed figure. Those infected even after vaccination can keep transmitting the disease unknowingly.

In a nutshell, resting the hope on the vaccine that it can end the pandemic thus the world can resume to normal and the world economy resurgence is just a wishful thinking. Let alone in reality people from the poor countries will not have access to vaccination so even if there is full vaccination in the rich countries the global transmission chain will never end indeed. The most optimistic forecast can only be the domestic resumption to normal within the rich countries on the basis that there is a nationwide full vaccination which is another wishful thinking.

On the other hand, while the whole world is putting its hope on the vaccine but it seems only little concern was put on the fact that vaccination is just a race against the viruses/germs because these microbes are constantly evolving and most of all, at a very fast rate which is way faster than the human's ability on vaccines development. In fact there were already more than 20 mutations found just in U.K. alone. Naturally not all mutations could bring more serious symptom or even more deadly but it is not whether or not but just a matter of time that a more deadly mutation is for sure in the pipeline as whether the more future mutations will become more friendly or deadly is just a random chance. Therefore chances are that before the western rich nations can achieve enough herd immunity through vaccination on their people, the Virus could has already mutated into a variation that the current vaccines are no longer protective leading the previous effort in vain. Let alone those poor nations are even not vaccinated due to financial constrain.

Higher the expectation, bigger disappointment will be when things turn out otherwise. As Trump's famous saying, we'll wait and see.

Who is going to laugh till the end?

 He said it at last.

In yesterday Trump responded to the reporter during the Thanksgiving appearance in the White House that if the Electors choose Biden to be the next President of the U.S.A. in their voting on the 14th in next month then he will leave the White House.

The Biden camp burst into euphoria when vote counting revealed that Biden's ballot outnumbered that of Trump's. The media even claimed that Biden has won the election few days after the voting ended. Biden was a bit reserved on the outcome and did not declare victory only till the 8th when the vote count in Pennsylvania and Georgia showed that they are in Biden's favour. 

On the other hand, Trump insists that the election was rigged and has never conceded failure even now. He has been saying to fight for the justice via legal action. Trump said it in the Tweeter many times. 

Despite earlier quite a few nations like the France, the U.K., Canada, China, German, Saudi, Australia...etc have congratulated Biden becoming the president-elected yet the transition between the two administrations has not started only after the General Services Administration(GSA) confirmed it under the letter to Biden three days ago.

After Biden's declaration and the endorsement of GSA, the world, or at least most of it, thought that the president-elected is by right becoming the next president. Or is it?

Why so asked?

Because Trump said he would fight via legal action? Nope. Despite Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania have rejected the cases but that is not the key point. In fact, It is only Trump's tactic in dealing with the public. Legal action is merely a cover up for the true action behind the scene. He knows something that you guys don't, or be misled with. Being the president as well as the player of this election game, he knows what matters and what don't. And he revealed to you guys in yesterday. He is waiting for the voting of the Electoral College.

In fact in my earlier post Does it really matter?  I already mentioned it. The general public, at least many American, thinks that the election happened on the Nov 3 decided who the next president would be and they think their votes made that happened. They are damn wrong though. Americans are misled by a deliberate illusion. Their voting is just a beautiful misleading to make them believe that they enjoy the democracy to choose their president. There are in fact other king-makers behind the curtain. 

Trump knows it all. He does not care about American's votes. Nor does he care about the GSA's decision. These are not the determinant. I say it again. He is waiting for the voting of the Electoral College. They are the true king-makers.

The design of the election system is that when the Electors judge that the popular vote does not reflect the best interest to the country, upon their conscience they can cast their vote otherwise. Now the trick is that Trump said the election was rigged. He claimed there were many frauds in the mailing ballots. The accusation leaves much room for the Electors to exercise their conscience. 

In my another post Politics is cruel?  I said politics is all about parceling out interests. There is nothing more political than is the presidential election especially that for the U.S. President. One must be super naive if s/he really thinks that the Electors will cast their votes solely upon their conscience when facing such a big controversy. S/he must also be ultra stupid to think there is no solicitation upon these electors now. Needless to say, there must be enormous bargaining happening right now behind the curtain till the December 14. People should not forget that there were five popular vote winners did not win the presidency along the American history. In fact Trump himself was exactly the beneficiary of such system which he actually lost the popular vote in 2016 but won the electoral vote. So he knows most what matters.

Who is going to laugh till the end? As what Trump always said, we'll wait and see.

It's all up to you now, guys

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A political nuclear bomb exploded here in Hong Kong in yesterday. Following the passage on the qualification on the Legco lawmakers by the standing committee of the China's People Congress, the Hong Kong government immediately declared that four lawmakers in the opposition camp were disqualified with immediate effect. Meanwhile, all the 15 remaining pan-democratic camp lawmakers announced their resignation resulting from such action from the Hong Kong government.

Some may say this is something like the tsunami following the 10 scale seabed earthquake in politics. Or is it?

The main street seems not much be concerned nor did the Hong Kong bourse react on it. This is rather eerie though, contrasting with the public's fierce reaction arising from the motion on the extradition bill by the Hong Kong government in last year. Apparently the general public has learned something. So what did they learn?

First of all, people know that the Legco is part of the regime. Opposition within the Legco against the administration apparently will not pay off. In fact, the opposition camp lawmakers have never really made any ground-breaking success in altering the Hong Kong government's main theme of China-isation. What they could do were filibustering during the Legco meetings, adjourning the meetings via insufficient presence of lawmakers. Being minority actually there is really not much substantive they could do. Having an opposition voice in the Legco seems to be symbolic more than substantive. It is not a true regret that all the opposition camp withdrew from being a backcloth which the Hong Kong government can use as the existence of democracy or the exhibition of the liveness of the so-called "One country, Two systems".

Secondly, people learn the true meaning of the frequent statement made by the Hong Kong government's officials that Hong Kong is an non-alienable part of China. They know that China's rules of game finally will, or have already? cast on Hong Kong. With the table turned, Hong Kong has evolved from the guiding role of China's modernization to the seeker of the preferential treatments from the central government. When guts has become the word of the past, people are also pragmatic and realistic on their stand.

On the other hand, with the successful containment of the novel corona virus vs the latest outbreak again in the western world, followed by the economic influence table-turning, China has gained much courage and confidence towards its once big brothers counterpart. The vision of the Rise of the Big Nation is getting closer and closer. China not only can say no but can do it as well. Compound with the decoupling which further leaves no hope on the harmony with the West, China dares to do what she likes at will blatantly and in broad daylight. 

So what happened in Hong Kong in yesterday is not something unexpected. This is just something along the script. People will not be surprised when something else similar are coming down the line. In fact, the recent trend in Hong Kong's development doesn't come without any practical point. With the dust and mist settled, a clear road path on Hong Kong's future is visionable. It will become part of China, as what people can see in many other cities in China. The Two Systems will become only a talk when China uses Hong Kong to deal with the West on bypassing the sanction or whatever inconvenience which the Mainland faces. Domestically people here in Hong Kong can expect everything will be same as what their Mainland fellow is facing with. 

Now, it is all up to you on how to deal with it for you and your families. Guys.