Help yourself

When native English speakers say help yourself, it means the guest can just feel free to enjoy whatever offered. To the people in Hong Kong, help yourself carries another totally different meaning now when they are facing the recent spike of CONVID 19. They really need to self helping themselves because the HKSAR government is at the brink of collapse on addressing the current surge of over thousands verified cases a day. Not only the public health system is highly overloaded but all kinds of anti-plague measures like the quarantine facility and testing facility as well as home quarantine support services all fall short to demand in a large extent.

As I mentioned my earlier post enough is enough  the reason is due to the absence of contingence plan arising from the lack of foresight, if not the worse case, malfeasance, of Sophia Chan, Secretary of Food and Health, Caspar Tsui, resigned Secretary of Home Affairs Bureau and of course the Chief Executive, Carrie Lam. They are inevitably the culprits of poor management of this spike of plague. Tsui resigned under the blame of his attendance to a birthday party which is a violation of the social distancing policy. However, the other two are still in their positions but most likely their days is numbered. Anyway, no matter what their political future will be, the fact is that the public is the victim of their wrong doings. When the public services are at the brink of collapse, Hong Kong people can only help themselves but not depend on the government.

Despite of the relatively low fatility rate of Omicron but when the infection cases rose, so was the daily death toll which climbed to a couple of dozen in the recent days. As getting infected is not a low probability event, the number one self-helping is to remain survive after infection. Getting vaccinated is the proven measure. Vaccination cannot prevent infection though but remaining alive after infection is the bottom line.

While the bottom line of stay alive by vaccination is secured, the next self-helping is to avoid getting infected. Naturally wearing face mask is the basic and mandatory step. However, as far as observation reveals that many people do not pay enough attention on their hand hygiene. Many passengers in the public transportation still grab the handrail with their bare hands. Shoppers also pick up merchandise with bare hands as well. No doubt many people carry a bottle of hand sanitizer but the point is that in most of the time they did not clean their hands in time after each and every touching with these objects. Those objects could be contaminated and very likely they would touch their own belongings afterward thus spreaded the virus onto their belongings. When they touched their nose, eyes or mouth unconsciously right after toughing these contaminated belongings thus be infected. Wearing disposable plastic gloves before touching these objects seems to be paramount. This helps avoiding infection in the first place.

For those unfortunately already infected, depending on the level of symptoms, self-helping is also more practical than seeking medical services from the public health system. There are already numerious cases that those verified infected being stranded at home awaiting for hospitalization or quarantine. Those patients with mild symptoms as long as they have already received their jabs do not need to panic because the fatility rate on the vaccinated is quite low. Most likely most patients will get well even if without medical treatment. Sleeping in open area in the chill nights awaiting for hospitalization could bring more risk exposure than can the disease per se be. Let alone the public health system is extremely overloaded so reserving the capacity for those truly endangered not only help ease the overloading but save one self by avoiding possible cross-infection in the hospital.

Naturally despite reducing social contacts, avoid visiting unnecessary premises sounds like platique but are truly practical self-helping measures. When the government fails their job to protect us, self helping yourself seems paramount than ever.

Enough is enough

In my last post omicron oh my god 2 in last Thursday I said when Beijing expressed its concern on Hong Kong's plague situation and said it would extend its assistance, that is actually a signal to Carrie Lam's administration saying Beijing is not happy on the then latest development in Hong Kong. Beijing would not stand sideline and let Lam and her bunch of incapable bureaucrats further jeopardize Hong Kong's well-being.  Today there came a news which explicitly mentioned that the President of State cum General Scretary of the CCP, Xi, laid an instruction that the HKSAR government must do by all means to suppress the plague and make sure Hong Kong returns to the right track. This news came in time just one day right after yesterday's verified infection cases rose to 5400+. Apparently Beijing is keeping a very close eye on the development and react promptly.

Lam and her bunch of related incapable bureaucrats are in hot soup now. An direct instruction from the State President is an absolute order which must be complied and failure is not an option. Having said, thing is not optimistic to Lam because with the existing measure there is literally no hope to turn the situation around in short time, or at least in a month or so considering the plague is in its full boom stage. Thing will just be worse but not the otherwise. 

It was said prior to this outbreak Lam was eagerly seeking the second term of her capacity of Chief Executive but judging what is happening now she literally will have no luck to run the election any more. There is a Chinese wisdom of word saying fortune and misfortune are twin and they inter-dependent with each other respectively (福兮禍所依，禍兮福所倚).  Lam have made a big mess in Hong Kong during the anti-extradition bill three years ago and when the judgment day was about to come then there came the plague in Wuhan, China and finally spreaded to Hong Kong in early 2020. Beijing kept Lam for the sake of stability in fighting the plague so it is the plague that saved Lam. Unfortunately it is the same plague which is very likely to put an end on her political future two years later. She just ran out any more of her luck.

In fact it is not about luck but Lam's character. Her character dictates her decisions which in turns led to the outcome of her doings. Lam was once characterized as very fighting when she was still the Secretary in the Development Bureau. It is her such personality that shapes her to be what she is today. Lam is self-confident and high in pride on what she does. There are pros and cons though. The price could be very high when she misjudges the circumstances because of her persistence. In the 2019 anti-extradition bill event Lam created a huge societal chao due to her persistence on the non-withdrawal of the proposed bill. In this plague she insists not wearing a face mask in the press conference appearance. She sees this as the standing up of her doings and pegged with her pride. This gives her a way of no return.

Whether to wear a face mask in press conference seems to be a minor issue but in fact it reflects Lam's mentality. She insists she take testings frequently and wore mask in all occassions so the likelihood to infect others or got infected is slim. It may be true but she neglects the psychological impact to the public on the stringent adherence to the anti-plague measures set up by her administration. People might follow to relax on the adherence to the measures as long as they think they are confident. Lam just set a very bad model to undermine the effort of the frontline personnel. The impact is far from the outcome from those press conferences.

Lam's pride also led her to wrong decisions. She believes in what she does and thinks they are all right but are they? Amid this recent spike Lam said her administration has ordered a hundred million of self testing kits and she thinks it is an effective measure to spot those hidden infected. Lam truly believes so and literally rests a big hope on the kick off. Unfortunately her persistence and pride will definitely give her another big blow on top of the other failure of her measures. Let alone whether all recipient can correctly administer the testing so an accurate result is viable but just image for people whose livelihood will be impacted if they are verified positive then will they honestly report to the authority so that they might lose their jobs? For many grassroot their wages count on their daily working and a no work day means a no pay day. This is reality and human nature but Lam overlooks it.

Apart from the many highly blamed operational flaws in different functions in the anti-plague measures, the key point lies on Lam's adminstration's lack of foresight and the corresponding contingence plan. In the past two years the HKSAR government has only been facing the development of the plague with reactive approach. Things were marginally manageable because of the relative smaller scale in the past but the table turned when Omicron mutant strikes in the beginning of this year. Yet Lam's administration still takes chance hoping things will be alright by luck but did not take a pre-emptive approach to prevent the worse scenario from happening.

The Omicron mutant emerged in the end of last year in S. Africa and before long it was classified as a highly contagious variance. Therefore it is not whether or not but just when this mutant will strike Hong Kong. This was a known high probability event. On the other hand, it is also a well in advance known high probability event that the existing facilities will largely fall short to demand when Omicron strikes Hong Kong judging from the high contagiousness. Yet from what have been done by the Lam's administration amid the spike in the past two weeks literally nothing has been planned and no preparation whatsoever was done to address what is happening now. Simply speaking there is no contingence plan at all. In fact the latest existing stringent measures came only fews days ago after there were 600+ case a day in straight three days when the Lam's administration woke up suddenly! This is a total failure being a government.

Enough is enough!

Omicron, Oh my god (2)

Two months ago my last post omicron ohmygod!  I wrote about the Omicron virus which its hostility to human was still unknown yet by then. Two months passed by luckily it turns out to be a much milder variant but on the other hand highly contagious unfortunately. It became the main culprit of the novel corona virus spreading in the world now. With no exception Hong Kong also is hit by this variant especially after the CNY holiday. The verified infection cases reached a staggering 600+ in straight three days followed by record breaking of 1000+ cases in yesterday. The infection rate grows exponentially as exhibited earlier in the other countries.

The HSAR government, Carrie Lam's administration, rolled out the ever strict measures including closing down businesses or tightening of the numbers of customer in Scheduled Premises. There are 6 newly added premises on top of the existing 17 ones and as usual the catering business is most hit one in terms of the number of businesses as well as the people employed. Having said, the other businesses and their employees are equally hit in this latest measure.

A plague is a natural disaster. It brings damages to people mostly life losses but when the plague is ill-managed the damages from this poorly managed measures could add to the public's woes. Unfortunately poor management seems to be a common symptom of most administrations, Hong Kong is no exception. What's more is that most of the responsible bureaucrats of the public health control are still feeling well and self-contented on their stupid doings. A typical example is Carrie Lam's explanation on her face mask off during the press conference as she wants to let the public to know her emotion. What an idiot and a bullshit! Naturally a bunch of self contented and self-claim elites bureaucrats under the leadership of such an idiot Chief Executive, Hong Kong is doomed to fall into this scenario.

Today there is news that the Central Government expresses its concern on the Hong Kong situation and will extend its assistance. This should be the sign that Beijing has thought enough is enough. It is time to stop Lam's administration further jeopardize Hong Kong's well-being. After all, its China's Hong Kong but not Lam's Hong Kong. As per China's political practices, a regional chief should has been removed long earlier when he/she failed to manage his/her turf properly. It seems Lam's days is numbered. 

Oh My God! says Lam.

Omicron, OhMyGod!

While the news that the Hong Kong government's talk with its sovereign government sheds some light on the conditional re-openning of the border between the two, people here in Hong Kong is yet to be happy but then in the past week there was a news about a fast spreading  new powerful mutant of the Covid-19 emerged in the Africa and spreading to the rest of the world now. The WTO terms it with the 15th Greek alphabet, Omicron, but I think to most of the people can't help but cry out its nakename Oh-my-god.

It is Oh-my-god because this mutant is not just another one that has been around in the past. This Omicron is far more contagious than its family while whether or not far more deadly is still unknown yet. On the other hand people can't help but cry out OMG because the whole world has rested their hope on the vaccination that as long as the vaccination level is high enough then life can be resumed and economy will be recovered. In fact the living-with-virus (LWV) approach that rest on a higher vaccination level has already been adopted by many countries whose economy were badly hit due to the lockdown in the past or at least strict restriction on the people flow as well as the goods transportation disruption. These countries are desparately in need on the economic resurgence because most of the LWV countries are democratic nations that the current administrations will most likely be voted down if their people still suffer from the poor living due to the economic downturn. The emergence of the Omicron is really Ohmygod to both the administrations as well as the people in these countries.

In my post light-at-end-of-tunnel2 I was skeptical on the LWV approach already. However three months has passed by since then and more and more countries are forced to adopt the LWV approach under the tremendous pressure on economic resurgence. Let alone the downside which I mentioned in the Post but in fact the LWV approach is vulnerable because its assumption of the herd immunity rests on an high level of vaccination among the whole population which unfortunately does not happen in these LWV countries. The key reasonale lies on the protection against infection resulting from vaccination or at least the low fatility rate even if infected so people can generally live a relatively normal life. 

However, the fatal blow to the LWV approach now is that the Omicron is such a mutant that it can effectively escape from the detection mechanism of the existing vaccines making them almost useless. If the Omicron is also a deadly variant that it will just be a death sentence on the LWV approach. The whole world will just fall into the looping of the lockdown and reopen thus the economy is paralysed so is the people's livelihood.

The another risk of the LWV is that it provides a perfect breeding ground for the Virus to evolve and mutate into an highly contagious and deadly mutant. Viruses need a host providing them an habitat so they can live. As long as they live then they keep evolving to combat on the obstacles like antibotics. In fact all creatures live and thrive in this way by overcoming obstacles but the point is that the evolution rate of the micro organisum is much higher that of their hosts as well as the pace of the new vaccine development. The outcome is the viruses always lead the race. LWV provides an environment that there are many vaccinated hosts as well as unvaccinated virus carriers mingling together. Mutated virus can keep infecting the vaccinated hosts to test breaking the effectiveness of vaccines via a fast evolution. The emergence of a highly deadly variant is not the question of whether or not but as a matter of fact just time. The leaders of the LWV governments seem overlook the fact that virus will definitely defeat the existing vaccines in one day and human always lack behind on the new vaccine development.

Omicron may or may not be very deadly but if the leaders in the LWV governments keep the game on then eventually there is one day people is bound to cry out Oh My God.

Two of a kind

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As the Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou and the two Canadian Michaels were released by the Canadian government and China government respectively, the detention farce has lowered the curtain. It is a farce because all sensible person understand the allegation of the two (or the three) detentions were just excuse. Meng was detained at the same day when the U.S. and China began the trade war negotiation so apparently she was used as a bargaining chip by the U.S. Having said, naturally Meng has committed the act in the allegation and this was truly a crime. However, such act could be ignored or at least tolerated when the accused was not Meng or Meng is not the daughter of the founder of Huawei whose 5G technology is the U.S.'s Archilles heel. Unfortunately she is what she is so Meng was chosen as a bargaining chip.

The two Canadian Michaels are among the hundreds thousand foreigners who are living in China but unfortunately they are Canadian. An nationality with sin at the time when the first detention happened. They were arrested days after Meng's detention under the accusation of the violation of China's national security which is by right a very serious and complicated act of crime so the investigation should require a long time. Anyway, only nine days after Meng was detained then the two Michaels were arrested and charged with the accusation. Any sensible person will not think the investigation has begun just after Meng's detention and could complete within nine days. Then why the arrest happened just a few days after Meng's case? Apparently the investigation has begun long before Meng's case but was just kept on hold until the right timing comes. However, China reiterates repeatedly many times and even just after the release that the two Canadian's prosecution has nothing to do with the Meng's case. Their case was an independent one from Meng's. 

Since Meng's arrest, China has been accusing Canada arbitrarily detained Meng and that was a political persecution. Anyway, the U.S. prosecutor claimed that Meng's presentation to the HSBC was a  misleading about Huawei's business with Iran. That act misled the HSBC into the infringement of the U.S. sanction against Iran. Apparently Meng is not totally innocent in the surface. 

On the other hand, the two Canadian Michaels were arrested with the accusation of violating China's national security. In China anything as long as relates to national security will be processed, including court trial, in the dark so no details or even just brief information will be released to the public. Therefore some western observers even suspect that the prosecution was just a fabricated accusation. Naturally only the two parties involved know the truth.

The farce was over now but before that the whole world was in the state "sit back, relax, and enjoy" to see how the show would end. This was something like the combat between Mafia and Sinaloa Cartel. People know that both arrests were injustice. The then U.S. President Trump once suggested that Meng could be part a trade deal with China. China described it as a coercive diplomacy. However, the two Canadian Michaels' arrest happened just nine days after Meng's so it suggested that the prosecution was solely a retaliation. Some commentators even termed it as hostage diplomacy. In any case both arrests were disgraceful acts and injustice. While enjoying the show, people can't help but just question the ethic level of the world's biggest and second largest economy. Naturally people understand that the farce happened under the context of the combat on the world leadership between the two superpowers. When things relate to national interests then compromise is always at the expense of justice.

To most onlooker nations, the two cases are merely a farce. All announcements regarding these two cases by the respective governments, no matter how serious they may sound, are just jokes. Having said, when China reiterates the two Michaels' case are independent from Meng's one, people just can't help but ask does Beijing really think a lie will become a fact when repeated a hundred times?

 

Tora! Tora! Tora!

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Appologize for my lousy gag again. This post has nothing to do with the famous movie about the Japan's attack on Pearl Harbour, nor anything about that piece of history in WII. The title just borrows the analogy of the code which Caption Fuchida used to kick off the bombing at the Harbour to signalize something very important is under way and people must be very cautious about, just like an airstrike is coming soon.

When Xi, the top boss of the CCP, PLA and State, of China first laid the term "common prosperity" in a CCP's meeting in the middle of last month, such speech sparkled big chaos in the business circle in China as well as the investing world. Xi's speech brings out the concept of "the third distribution of wealth" meaning the riches donate their wealth under their will to help the poors contrary to the "first distribution" through wages or dividends payout by corporations while the "second distribution" is achieved by social welfare system via taxation.

Frankly speaking donation is nothing new and should not deserve so much attention in the democratic countries. People, be s/he rich or not, donate or do not donate as well as the donation amount is done according to their own will. Donation is solely a personal and private act despite our society usually admire those who do so but no criticism to those who don't though. While some donors did it in high profile some just made big donation anonymous and despite the formers asked for fame but the latters are truly out of kindness. People are just acting according to their own will.

Unlike what we do in the free world, despite the CCP just made appeal to the riches on the donation/aids, such appeal is heavy-weighted, especially that came from the nation's top boss who is in high power now and where the norm "florish if obidient, perish otherwise" prevails. New rich corporations like Tencent and Alibaba... etc react promptly by making funds in billions of U.S. dollors to answer to this "appeal". They know the name of the game is survival in the place where the Party has the utmost leadership on everything, a characteristic of China's socialism.

Since the open-door policy raised by Deng Xiaoping by the 80s', China has been a magnet of investment. Foreign corporations capitalized on her low costs in running businesses at the beginning to set up manufacturing facilities as well as the exploration on the huge market when the Nation is getting rich in the latter stage. While some pioneers got their fingers burnt, many made good profit out of this country. Hence foreign investors seems either have ignored or forgotten China is still a Communist Party run country where "happy hours" is only something Cinderella. Afterall, the clock is bounded to strike to twelve.

Indeed Common Prosperity is one the central themes of Communism which advocates Common Ownership across Means of Production including assets and of course, wealth. Common Prosperity is only the means but not the end towards the "great ideal". 

As China adopted open-door policy, the western world concerted alongside to embrace her into their system by allowing her into the WTO as well as many international organizations hoping to induce her to join their "club". China thus prospers under the explosive trade volume with the West and became the second largest economy after the U.S. but despite bagging the jackpot, she is still committed and determined on the ideology and institution of her own. China remains a communism country.

Alongside with the advocate of common prosperity, China has recently launched quite some regulation on a few industries like the private tuition, e-game, ride-hailing, food delivery and movie artist ...etc., addressing to different concerns like the data safety, education focus as well as parents' financial burden, mental healthyness of youths and children and corrupted entertaining sector...All in all, China wants to pursuit a path different from the western world to differentiate herself as a China-charactistic socialism country.

With this ambition in mind, more regulation on many other industries and sectors are expected in the pipeline. The business landscape in China perhaps will see a totally different scenario from the past in the years to come. Maybe this is the time to farewell to the "good old time" in investing in China. On the other hand, the most horroble thing in investing in China is that the once successful strategy and experience could become a poison overnightly as long as the top boss in Beijing changes his mind. Perhaps no one could imagine that economic moat, big is beautiful, high profit...which were valued in the past now became a sin. Many stock commentators blah blah on the analysis in China stocks based on fundamentals or financials but what all these commentators fail to foresee is policy risk.

Tora! Tora! Tora! A storm is coming.

Light at the end of tunnel?(2)

In the post with the same title light-at-end-of-tunnelwritten at the turn of this year I was not optimistic on the hopes(dream?) resting on the vaccines which were just put in the market. Eight months have passed since then and unfortunately things just happened exactly as I mentioned in the previous post. 

Not only an high herd immunity arising from high vacination rate among the developed countries like the U.S. and the U.K. is yet achieved, on the other hand a high contagious mutant virus, Delta, do exist as forecasted, luckily not as deadly as mentioned though. The even worse news is that more and more people even fully vaccinated with two jabs were found infected and at the same time constagious to other people. The hypothesis of herd immunity seems at the brink of collapse. The hope so far on the vaccination is only the protection against the mortality rate. Therefore countries like the U.K. and Singapore detour their strategy to live with the virus rather than a strict containment or even elimination in their soil. People argue that such approach is a bold bet. In fact such bet is just at the expense of those who are vulnerable to vaccination due to allergy or other unfit conditions. They are more likely to be infected then die from complication because of a higher vaccinated yet infected population walking around them.

The approach of living with virus devides the world between vaccinated and unvaccinated, domestically and internationally. It is quite clear in the international aspect on this devision, those rich countries are talking about the third boost jab on their nationals while many poor countries are desperate on vaccine quantity far below their population. The living with virus approach undoubtedly will lead to a higher transmission rate across borders as well as virus mutation rate. When the virus Delta evolves into a not only highly contagious but also more deadly mutant then people from these less developed countries is doomed. It is just a big joke on UN's declaration that “all human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights.” Let alone dignity, in reality some people always enjoy more rights while some others are deprived from even right to survive.

Unlike those poor countries where vaccine quantity available is far below from their population, ironically some people in the rich countries are resistant to vaccination. Apart from some who are allergic to vaccine or whose conditions are too vulnerable, for one reason or another like suspicious on the vaccine safety or the quest on the respect of their choice, there are quite some in the rich countries do not want to get their jabs. Therefore domestically there are also devision between vaccinated and unvaccinated in these countries. Disregard the reason of these unvaccinated people, Their life are at risk anyway when their countries adopt the living with virus approach because there are increasing vaccinated yet infected people spreading the virus around more than ever. It is fair enough for those who choose no jabs on their own but for those who are just unable to be vaccinated, such approach is nothing different from hanging their life on a thread.

While those adventurous nations are in trial of the risky bet of living with virus approach, many others are watching closely on the outcome. Frankly speaking time is not at their side because their economies are suffering badly from the containment approach. They are desparate for a wayout to resurgence. This is particularly true for those deomcratic countries where people tend to vote out an administration which fails to bring the ecomomy around. The governments in these countries most likely cannot help to bet on such approach at the expense of the unvaccinated.

Vaccine used to bring the hope of the light at the end of tunnel but when its halo fades, people realize that possibly the ordeal is far from over.