Collapse of public governance

Three days ago Moody's downgraded Hong Kong's sovereign credit rating on the ground that Hong Kong government's governance is lower than previously estimated mainly due to its inability to resolve the already seven months long yet on-going civil unrest. Probably it is a coincidence or may be not, however, Carrie Lam's administration demonstrates another governance crisis amid the brink of an outbreak of pandemic, the Wuhan coronavirus.

Apparently the Hong Kong government lags behind in coping with the ever-evolving possible pandemic. In his speech two days ago, the Chief Secretary, Matthew Cheung, explained why health declaration is not implemented upon the passengers from the Express Rail trains coming from China that the process could build up blocks of people in the arrival hall while the gathering of people could even facilitate the transmission of virus, if there is any asymptomatic vector among the crowd. It is really unbelievable that the second to Chief Executive in the Hong Kong government would say such nonsense as the explanation on the public health policy.

Cheung's nonsense logic lies on when there is no asymptomatic carrier among the crowds then the worry on the possible virus transmission is unnecessary. However, if there is really one, Cheung seems to  prefer avoiding the infection among the people from the train but to release the patient to the public without any clue to trace his/her whereabout which will cause a much wider scale of spreading in the community.

Fallacy, especially from such a high ranking official, does undermine confidence not only from Hong Kong citizen to the Administration's governance but also that from the stake holders including foreign investors. This nonsense logic just further strengthens the justification on Moody's downgrading.

On the other hand people can't help but just wonder why these once elites now turn out to be idiots. Apparently there is nothing wrong in their brains but just in their mentality. They just tuned their gesture in-line with what the Mainland China is posing. When Cheung said the nonsense the Mainland China's related authority was still trying to tone-down the situation. These elite officials are just too smart to play safe by keeping the same tune with that from the north or even avoid the possible perception of offend perceived by the Mainland counterpart.

Amid the ever-growing integration with China, it seems the Hong Kong administration is in a kind of self-dwarfed position when dealing with their counterpart in the Mainland China. This kind of self-imposed limitation is literally a castration on the doctrine of Hong Kong People ruling Hong Kong and just showcases the deterioration on the another doctrine of One Country, Two Systems.

Deng Xiaoping once made his prophecy saying that there is possibility that the main culprit of undermining the One Country, Two Systems comes within Hong Kong. It seems his prediction really came true but sadly, Deng might has never expected that it is the Hong Kong government itself!

Life without hope is no different from a salted fish

The title of this post came from the line in one of the productions by the once very popular Hong Kong comedian actor, Stephen Chow. Chow's most famous films are seen as the classical comedy during his heyday era. Unfortunately most of the people, especially among the youth, here in Hong Kong could experience what this expression is all about now.

Finally the once raged social turmoil arising from the extradition bill has subsided much now. Livelihood started to resume to normal despite of the on and off activities in different forms. However, lives of most Hong Kong people are never the same again. Apart from that the society is further divided, to many of the residents in this island Hong Kong has changed much. Police became brutality, white fear lingering in the air, the once friends became opponents, a travel city became a forbidden city, last but not least the "one country two systems" has proven to be a failure here in Hong Kong. The idea of this advocate is once the hope of the seven millions plus islander's hope on the exemption of the life style across the border, at least till 2047. The six months long social activity has poked this balloon of hope.

At the beginning of this social movement some people attributed the wealth gap between the haves and the don't and the housing shortage. It is true that these are the deep-seated problems bothering Hong Kong in this decade but this is not uncommon in neigbouring countries or even in some developed ones. The participants of this movement are consisted of young people or even teenage, especially at the middle to the latest stages. As and when the confrontation develops, this young segment of the population suddenly realized that the once baby step eroding promise on the two systems came to the brink of the bursting. Changing from rule by law to rule of will is just one step away. They anticipated what life will be like after, or even just approaching 2047 when is going to be their prime time if things keep going like what it is now. So they rose to fight. They fought for their future. A future free from fear.

There were also pro-government or Beijing rallies amid the much larger scale counterpart. The interesting thing was that the participants of these pro-government activities were mainly middle to old aged who are most probably the haves of the wealth gap spectrum or those who will enter into their elderly stage when 2047 arrives. The whether or not on the existence of hope does not matter much comparing to their youth counterpart. The result of the recent Taiwan presidential election tallies the preference of the expectation on hope in life between the old and young. Taiwanese young people voted Tsai to demonstrate their resistance to China and her ambition of imposing the One Country Two Systems onto Taiwan. Young people across the strait did the different things but for the same motive.

They want a life with hope, but not a salted fish.

Her days are numbered(3)

Following the District Council election in last weekend and the pan-democratic camp's overwhelming success, Hong Kong finally enjoys a few days of calmness so far. The outcome of the polling was out of expectation and also as expected in the sense that the result was actually a big No to the government which was expected, the victory was much better than expectation though.

However, things happened before the election were really nasty. Hong Kong has literally turned into a war zone especially at the Chinese University and Polytechnics University. Days of battle between the riot police and the defenders made Hong Kong "famous" again. The island is an international city and renowned for many things like good food, shopping or fun land of money adventurers ...etc. People around the world at least heard about Hong Kong's name even if he/she knows nothing about it. Thanks to Carrie Lam, the CE of HKSAR com most "successful" disservice salesperson for Hong Kong, that this island is getting more and more well known in the international community but unfortunately against its reputation.

The social unrest, originated from Lam's stupidity and arrogance on the maneuver of the extradition bill proposal. This social movement not only directly led to the total failure of the pro-establishment camp in the district council election but literally rendered Hong Kong as a bargaining chip for Trump in the trade deal negotiation with China. This mistake out-weight all those mistakes made by any of her predecessors. People has been gossiping if Lam can survive till the end of her first term. It seems the CE of HKSAR are cursed so her all three predecessors could not complete their appointments. Therefore people speculate Lam will end up the same as them and people did that for good reason. All the three former CEs have done something different but the common point were extremely unwelcome by the public. Despite the things they did were different but all yielded the massive protests among the public. At the end of the day they all stepped down with different excuses, and apparently under Beijing's idea.

Some may still argue that the state chairman, Xi Jinping, has just openly recognized the work by Lam and her administration recently. It seems Beijing is still supportive to her but people should not forget all the three former CEs also received this kind of recognition from Beijing amid the overwhelming pubic criticism prior to their stepping down. The mess created by Lam now is way bigger than those by her predecessors so her punishment in more or less the same pattern seems to be unavoidable.

For people who know the practice of the sacking of any senior management member understand that unless the one is involved in criminal offense, the replacement will not happen right away despite very serious mistake is committed. Most of the cases it takes time to find the suitable candidate. On the other hand, a smooth transition is sought after for the sake of operation. Indeed finding one who is willing to shoulder the responsibility amid the chaos is extremely difficult, if not possible. If the recent calmness can last finally then it could be somehow easier to find the white knight to take up the challenge.

Everyone here in Hong Kong is longing for the calmness not only for the peaceful livelihood but hoping to see the end of the sinner of the chaos. In fact, it became quite clear, after the polling result, to the sinner's master that they can either put an even stronger suppression on the people's opinion or resort to a policy adjustment fine-tuned to the reality happening here in Hong Kong. Apparently the former is not the option available to Beijing considering the current situation so the sacrifice of a stooge is out of question.

Is it gonna work?(2)

It is more than one month since my last post with the same heading and the answer to the question became quite clear now. Meanwhile today the social unrest just went into a new milestone following the death of an university student who mysteriously fell from height in a car park building during a police-protestors confrontation a week ago. The news of the student's death three days ago triggered a new round of mayhem throughout Hong Kong territory. However, the situation in today turned much sour than it was in the past few days when a police officer shot down a protestor live fire with his pistol and another traffic police officer charged into protestors three times with his motorbike.

Today's shooting is the second incidence following the shooting in last month. Unlike the last shooting that the protestor was engaging in action towards the police officer, the victim in today's shooting just followed and watched about two meters away from the police officer while some other protestors were having bodily contact with that officer. Apparently that officer has burst into loss of control while being confronted and under stress. Compounded with the traffic police's reckless charging with his motorbike, it will unavoidably tear further apart the police force with the public as live round footage went viral in the Internet. The public's condemnation on the police's violence puts Carrie Lam, the so far CE of the HKSAR, into a dilemma. The police force is Lam's sole reliance on the armed force backing but it seems the Force is going to be out of her control.

It seems there is a delicate shift of dominance between Lam's administration and the police force. As and when the social unrest goes more and more furious Lam's administration is getting more and more dependent on the police force to deal with the mayhem. Every seasoned business owner knows that when a particular staff became indispensable that it will be a big headache of office governance. This is the exact situation that Lam is trapped into particularly when Beijing openly expressed it's recognition on the HK police force's work. This puts Lam in a more vulnerable position in term of office politics. It seems both parties are aware of this situation well or at least the front line police officers do so therefore they enjoy much freedom and leeway on the exercising excessive force while Lam is quite cautious and refrained on commenting the situation.

Some people may say the stationed PLA is Lam's last resort so she is not that hindered in under dog. However, the PLA is not under her command so the deployment is solely up to Beijing's decision while the latter has a big concern of the use of PLA on HK soil especially amid the closing negotiation on a deal with the U.S. on the trade talk. On the other hand, Beijing has a much bigger concern on the deployment of PLA at this moment when the police force is under condemnation. The latter may interpret the action is a distrust on them or even a disposal after ordeal. They are in their some thirty thousands and most of all, armed. Their grievance is the least thing Beijing does not want to see.

There is a Chinese saying to describe someone is in a dilemma as the riding on a tiger's back, it is not easy to keep on riding in one hand but dangerous to cast off on the other hand. Where is the tiger? Who is riding?  Hm....

Is it gonna work?

It was really a frenetic night here in Hong Kong in last night. Countless of destruction happened throughout the territory. It was just one step away from war zone. Things in war zone like petrol bombs and gun shooting did happen. The difference is that there was no fire exchange only. Violence stepped up quickly from China's national day on Oct 1 and it reached another milestone since the enactment of the "ban masks law" effective after mid-night of Oct 4.

The ban masks law (BML) was established without going through the legislative council but under the discretion of Carrie Lam, the CE of HKSAR, and a co-decision with the Executive Council. The BML is meant to refrain the radical protestors from engaging violence when they are easier to be identified without the covering of a mask. BML prohibits protestors wearing masks during a demonstration consisting of more than 30 people or public assembly of 50 people.

This is another stupid action that Lam and/or her master made again relating to this biggest ever social movement in Hong Kong after the returning to China. No one can tell the almost civil war in last night was the analogy of question of chicken first or egg to this highest level of violence so far in response to the BML. The point is that if the BML does work then the radical protestors was just using the last few hours left behind after the announcement of the BML till the enforcement to have their last strike which led to the "civil war" in last night.

However, the key point still lies on whether the BML is going to work though. To have an educated guess one needs to examine the logic of the BML which claims that protestors tends to be more furious when their identification are concealed under masks. Therefore banning on wearing masks during demonstration or assembly could retard radical protestors' violence, hopefully.

The stupidity of this logic is that protestors march peacefully without masks does not necessarily mean they will not wear masks when they start to commit violence. After all, engaging in violent destruction is a crime already so why care about the offense of violating the BML when they are smashing things? The stupid logic of the BML assumes radical protestors will not wear masks all the way through demonstration to destruction. The reality is that for sure any sensible radical protestor will not wear his mask until the moment he commits the destruction. BML just literally cannot serve as what it is expected. After all, carrying a mask in pocket or bag is not a crime anyway.

Having said, BML does deter the truly peaceful protestors from participating demonstration if they do not want to be identified for various reasons like the fear of job security. After all, China's economic influence has already infiltrate into every sectors in Hong Kong's economy. The firing of cabin crews and pilots in Cathay Pacific, the prime local carrier in Hong Kong did seed the white terror of its kind.

Perhaps this is the actual purpose behind the BML. Ending violence via BML? Come on!

Evil police? A big misunderstanding!

A few days ago the once retired but recently back on board again temporary deputy commissioner of police, Alan Lau Yip Shing, sent an internal letter to the police force to comfort and encourage them on their contribution in the operation dealing with the Hong Kong's ever biggest social movement in the past three months. Being the second man to the police commissioner, it is alright for Lau to cheer up his team in the hope to earn the continuous support from the team as the movement seems to be unlikely to die out in the near future. Indeed this is the expected role on Lau for his reunion with the police force again even after his retirement due to his past experience in the operation on the Korean farmers' protest on the WTO meeting held in Hong Kong back in 2005.

In Lau's letter, he accused the people from sectors in political party, lawmaker, religion, media, education and social welfare attacked the ruling of the government for the sake of their political purposes and interests. He further questioned why the same police force was rated as among the few best in the Asia just back three months ago but now became what is alleged as the evil police.

It is absolutely alright to motivate his subordinates but if the content in Lau's letter really reflects his genuine thinking then his letter just gives away how innocent and naive of the second man to the police chief is.

Any police force in the world is the law enforcement arm of any regime in the world. Therefore police force is part of the constitution and establishment. It's fundamental role is very simple, ie., to safeguard the regime against mostly internal challenges including those from the outlaws and anti-governmental activists. So whenever there is any anti-governmental activity, it is always the police force out there to combat them. If people has neglected this ugly part of the police force then it is just a big misunderstanding.

On the other hand, the police force has been doing its job in maintaining the law and order in Hong Kong and the crime rate is among the few lowest countries or areas in the region, at least prior to the outbreak of the massive social movement since this June. Hong Kong police force really deserved the reputation which it earned from its hard work throughout the years. To be fair, even during these few months of social unrest, Hong Kong police force is still working hard in doing their jobs on the maintenance of the daily law and order against the outlaws.

What marked the difference on the image of the police force is their role on the suppression on the social movements since four years ago from the Occupy Central. Being part of the establishment, police force is repeatedly used by the administration in cracking down all unwanted voices and actions. This was when the police force got its curse as evil police. It was CY Leung's and now Carrie Lam's administration that put the police force in direct confrontation with the public. Indeed they are the one to be blamed.

In fact people should also distinguish the police force's management from the individual police officers. The latter acts according to the instructions given from the former. The on-site commander should be held responsible for the tactics and deployment of forces. Excessive aggressive actions could have been taken in order to brown-nosing the superiors or even Beijing. Naturally there are some police officers have overly exercised his force at his own discretion. This is really an undesirable behaviour.

While people is accusing the police force is evil, it is better to target precisely who the black sheep are but at the end of the day, it should be the one who is responsible for bringing up this chaos be accountable for the blame.

So don't blame the police force. They are just like a dual faces character.  Whether they are evil just depends on which face you are looking at. Remember, your great hound is always excellent and the difference lies on whether it is hunting for you or hunting you.

Who knows?

People may wonder if Hong Kong is at the brink of what is similar to China's Cultural Revolution when in last week battery happened between opposing  groups with different political opinion. This was quite alike the chaos happened 50 years ago in China where Red Guards fought furiously with each other both claimed they were guarding Mao's thoughts. That was the most insane social movement ever in China's modern history. That was also China's dark age arising from the internal power struggle within the CCP on the party leadership. At that time, sons against fathers, wives against husbands, brothers against sisters, students against teachers, tens of thousands families torn apart because of different stances. All blames to the sinister Mao ZeDong whom utilized the movement to safeguard his leadership and the evil CCP's keen-to-power-struggle nature.

When people look around what is happening here in Hong Kong now they found similar signs of such violence among the public. Apart from the battery in last week, the first incident was the "terror attack" by the men-in-white to the men-in-black back in July. The latest addition is the assault on the democratic lawmaker, Roy Kwong, and the attack on the female reporter who works for Apple Daily, an explicit opposition media, in two days ago. Many believe the July terror attack was a premeditated crime against the opposition protestors while the battery in last week was suspected to be a counter-attack by the radical protestors on the two seemingly pro-government men as both cases happened in Yuen Long. The tendency of violent confrontation among civilian seems growing, on top of that between radical protestors and police.

While those believe the radical protestors are under the support or even the direction of foreign influences, they might have overlooked another possibility. For people who know the development history of the CCP know that the Party actually grew alongside with continuous internal power struggle from its founding stage and even still in its hardship on the civil war with the GMT army for seizing the ruling on the nation. In fact internal struggle has never stopped throughout the 70 years after the founding of Communist China. Throughout the years some internal struggles were about the direction of the state development. However, even more struggles were for power, ie., leadership on the Party especially those happened in the latest couple of decades. As and after China joined the WTO and her economy enjoyed a sharp growth, grasping on the say means controlling the most lucrative sectors of the economy. Every candidate were eyeing on the posts of the Party's general secretary, the president and the chairman of central military commission. Anyone who can grasp all the three posts becomes the modern emperor in China. The current emperor has a nick name of Winnie the Pooh.

While Winnie is sitting at the highest throne but he is not lack of jealous eyes whom are so eagerly to take every opportunity to pull his leg or even take him down for the sake to replace him. When China's propaganda is blaming the U.S. capitalizing on the Hong Kong card on hindering China's rising, Winnie's every move and strategy on dealing this problem is under his rival's scrutiny. Despite Winnie seems to be in full control in his throne but his rivalry will take no mercy should he make a wrong move that not only fails to resolve the problem but also brings damage to the state. This could just give the rivalry a good excuse to force Winnie on the abdication. A possible way is to stir up a greater mess in Hong Kong to replicate another massacre.

Perhaps there are someone else who are in greater desire that Hong Kong to be even more chaotic than does Trump. Who knows?