People may wonder if Hong Kong is at the brink of what is similar to China's Cultural Revolution when in last week battery happened between opposing groups with different political opinion. This was quite alike the chaos happened 50 years ago in China where Red Guards fought furiously with each other both claimed they were guarding Mao's thoughts. That was the most insane social movement ever in China's modern history. That was also China's dark age arising from the internal power struggle within the CCP on the party leadership. At that time, sons against fathers, wives against husbands, brothers against sisters, students against teachers, tens of thousands families torn apart because of different stances. All blames to the sinister Mao ZeDong whom utilized the movement to safeguard his leadership and the evil CCP's keen-to-power-struggle nature.
When people look around what is happening here in Hong Kong now they found similar signs of such violence among the public. Apart from the battery in last week, the first incident was the "terror attack" by the men-in-white to the men-in-black back in July. The latest addition is the assault on the democratic lawmaker, Roy Kwong, and the attack on the female reporter who works for Apple Daily, an explicit opposition media, in two days ago. Many believe the July terror attack was a premeditated crime against the opposition protestors while the battery in last week was suspected to be a counter-attack by the radical protestors on the two seemingly pro-government men as both cases happened in Yuen Long. The tendency of violent confrontation among civilian seems growing, on top of that between radical protestors and police.
While those believe the radical protestors are under the support or even the direction of foreign influences, they might have overlooked another possibility. For people who know the development history of the CCP know that the Party actually grew alongside with continuous internal power struggle from its founding stage and even still in its hardship on the civil war with the GMT army for seizing the ruling on the nation. In fact internal struggle has never stopped throughout the 70 years after the founding of Communist China. Throughout the years some internal struggles were about the direction of the state development. However, even more struggles were for power, ie., leadership on the Party especially those happened in the latest couple of decades. As and after China joined the WTO and her economy enjoyed a sharp growth, grasping on the say means controlling the most lucrative sectors of the economy. Every candidate were eyeing on the posts of the Party's general secretary, the president and the chairman of central military commission. Anyone who can grasp all the three posts becomes the modern emperor in China. The current emperor has a nick name of Winnie the Pooh.
While Winnie is sitting at the highest throne but he is not lack of jealous eyes whom are so eagerly to take every opportunity to pull his leg or even take him down for the sake to replace him. When China's propaganda is blaming the U.S. capitalizing on the Hong Kong card on hindering China's rising, Winnie's every move and strategy on dealing this problem is under his rival's scrutiny. Despite Winnie seems to be in full control in his throne but his rivalry will take no mercy should he make a wrong move that not only fails to resolve the problem but also brings damage to the state. This could just give the rivalry a good excuse to force Winnie on the abdication. A possible way is to stir up a greater mess in Hong Kong to replicate another massacre.
Perhaps there are someone else who are in greater desire that Hong Kong to be even more chaotic than does Trump. Who knows?
2019年9月26日 星期四
2019年9月21日 星期六
All men are equal before law? Perhaps you got it wrong
In the past few months the whole island is heated up because of the social activities arising from the protests on the extradition bill. The origin of the people's vigorous resistance is the concern on the two legal systems in the Mainland and Hong Kong respectively. At the beginning of this social movement Hong Kong people voted with their marches on how lack of confidence on the judicial systems in China, one may assume that they are contented on the one that is being practiced here in Hong Kong, at least comparatively and relatively.
China's judicial system is no doubt infamous due to the root cause of its constitution that the CCP leads every governmental functions including the courts. When the ruling party is above and rules the courts then naturally no fair trial can be expected as long as the defendant is the government meaning the CCP itself. Compounded with the serious corruption both in private and public sectors including the courts, so justice is just something of lip service only even if in the ordinary civil cases which dignitaries or the riches are defendants. This is the reason why, prior to the withdrawal of the Bill, Hong Kong people is so worried that if one day they are extradited to China no matter for true or fabricated accusations.
The fear on China's judicial system is substantive because it is notorious with countless existing examples. This undermines the propaganda of the promotion of living in Greater Bay Area. Naturally the reality is that there are already many Hong Kong people living in China due to work or other reasons. They might think as long as they stay away from any anti-government movements and to be an obedient citizen then they should be free from the threat. Naturally the danger is not imminent but the problem is that even if one does not actively engage in "dangerous activities", it does not necessarily means he will not come across injustice incident. For example, one may be knocked down by a car driven by a drunken senior official, or say his business is too good but hurts that of his jealous dignitary competitor whom thus sends in wretches to teach the former a lesson. In both cases the plaintiff most probably will not receive a fair trial on the cases.
Perhaps everybody agrees that judicial system in countries with totalitarian regime is injustice. So how about those in the democratic countries? Naturally the latter is far more better than the former but having said that, injustice seems to be a dark side of human nature disregard the difference in the ideology. To look into the issue, a scrutiny on the formation of the legal system, even if in the democratic countries, is essential.
Depending on the constitution in a particular country, laws are drafted and then passed in the law-making body. Therefore the legislative system, ie., who draft and who is responsible for passing the laws are equally important to the fairness of the judicial system among the whole legal system. The controversy brought out by the anti-extradition bill incident often rests on the confidence of Hong Kong's judicial system but the courts are the parties who judge cases based on the established laws. When the laws themselves are in favour of some particular "beneficiaries" in the first place or the legal proceeding process is not friendly to some segments of the society then no matter how fair the courts are, injustice is just inevitable.
For the first point on the law-making process, the proposal of a bill is usually drafted by the related governmental agency which may or may not have consultation with the public. In reality most ordinary people are not equipped with the needed knowledge or time to attend consultations, let alone those at the bottom of social minority who is often neglected. On the other hand those wealthy classes or big corporations have much more resources in engaging professionals on the lobbying of the law to their favour. The lobbyists in K Street in Washington D.C. is a good example of this unfairness at the start.
On the other hand, the complicated legal process on a proceeding and the most of all, the associated legal fees often scare common folks away on the attempt to get justice through legal action. In most places, lawyer's legal advice charge is hourly based. One even cannot afford to pay the charge for the legal advice whether a further legal action is justified. Even if one's pocket is deep enough for the legal advice bill but the subsequent court proceeding costs and the barrister fee which is unknown till the end of the case often wards ordinary people off from this route in pursuit of justice. This is particularly true for the case of a small potato plaintiff vs a wealthy defendant.
After all, no matter totalitarian nations or democratic nations, laws are so constructed to mainly serve the dignitaries and riches. The reality is that justice comes with a price tag which is often too costly to ordinary people. This is an untold truth that could break the heart of billions of people who is dreaming all men are equal before law.
China's judicial system is no doubt infamous due to the root cause of its constitution that the CCP leads every governmental functions including the courts. When the ruling party is above and rules the courts then naturally no fair trial can be expected as long as the defendant is the government meaning the CCP itself. Compounded with the serious corruption both in private and public sectors including the courts, so justice is just something of lip service only even if in the ordinary civil cases which dignitaries or the riches are defendants. This is the reason why, prior to the withdrawal of the Bill, Hong Kong people is so worried that if one day they are extradited to China no matter for true or fabricated accusations.
The fear on China's judicial system is substantive because it is notorious with countless existing examples. This undermines the propaganda of the promotion of living in Greater Bay Area. Naturally the reality is that there are already many Hong Kong people living in China due to work or other reasons. They might think as long as they stay away from any anti-government movements and to be an obedient citizen then they should be free from the threat. Naturally the danger is not imminent but the problem is that even if one does not actively engage in "dangerous activities", it does not necessarily means he will not come across injustice incident. For example, one may be knocked down by a car driven by a drunken senior official, or say his business is too good but hurts that of his jealous dignitary competitor whom thus sends in wretches to teach the former a lesson. In both cases the plaintiff most probably will not receive a fair trial on the cases.
Perhaps everybody agrees that judicial system in countries with totalitarian regime is injustice. So how about those in the democratic countries? Naturally the latter is far more better than the former but having said that, injustice seems to be a dark side of human nature disregard the difference in the ideology. To look into the issue, a scrutiny on the formation of the legal system, even if in the democratic countries, is essential.
Depending on the constitution in a particular country, laws are drafted and then passed in the law-making body. Therefore the legislative system, ie., who draft and who is responsible for passing the laws are equally important to the fairness of the judicial system among the whole legal system. The controversy brought out by the anti-extradition bill incident often rests on the confidence of Hong Kong's judicial system but the courts are the parties who judge cases based on the established laws. When the laws themselves are in favour of some particular "beneficiaries" in the first place or the legal proceeding process is not friendly to some segments of the society then no matter how fair the courts are, injustice is just inevitable.
For the first point on the law-making process, the proposal of a bill is usually drafted by the related governmental agency which may or may not have consultation with the public. In reality most ordinary people are not equipped with the needed knowledge or time to attend consultations, let alone those at the bottom of social minority who is often neglected. On the other hand those wealthy classes or big corporations have much more resources in engaging professionals on the lobbying of the law to their favour. The lobbyists in K Street in Washington D.C. is a good example of this unfairness at the start.
On the other hand, the complicated legal process on a proceeding and the most of all, the associated legal fees often scare common folks away on the attempt to get justice through legal action. In most places, lawyer's legal advice charge is hourly based. One even cannot afford to pay the charge for the legal advice whether a further legal action is justified. Even if one's pocket is deep enough for the legal advice bill but the subsequent court proceeding costs and the barrister fee which is unknown till the end of the case often wards ordinary people off from this route in pursuit of justice. This is particularly true for the case of a small potato plaintiff vs a wealthy defendant.
After all, no matter totalitarian nations or democratic nations, laws are so constructed to mainly serve the dignitaries and riches. The reality is that justice comes with a price tag which is often too costly to ordinary people. This is an untold truth that could break the heart of billions of people who is dreaming all men are equal before law.
2019年9月5日 星期四
Stupid vs smart
HSI rocketed almost 1000 points in the day before yesterday when there was speculation that Carrie Lam, the chief executive of HKSAR, would announce certain back down after the trading hours of the Hong Kong bourse. Withdrawal on the long debated extradition bill finally came true when Lam threw in the towel at a pre-recorded TV press release in the same evening. However the belated move did not earn applause but criticism instead. The opposition camp condemned Lam for the damages that she brought to Hong Kong in the past three months due to her stubbornness, rigidity and arrogance on the public opinion.
In the broadcasting, Lam appeared weary and short of spirit. Undoubtedly she must has gone through very hard time during the past few months especially the past August when the confrontation between the radical protestors and the police escalated into a new height. Pressure from the North to settle the chaos in its soonest was mounting but on the other hand Beijing's tie on Lam's hand for concession just drove her crazy. Lam's listlessness did come with good reason because she knows well just the withdrawal itself will certainly not meet the request from the public on the five demands. Her ordeal is far from over.
It is widely believed that Lam is forbidden on any concession on the five demands without the consent from Beijing so her announcement on the withdrawal is definitely not at her own discretion. This is really an extremely stupid decision to make concession on withdrawing the proposal of the bill only. The move not only fails to ease the tension between Lam's administration and the public when the slogan "all five demands or nothing" has been deeply rooted in the protestors' mind but also produces a speculation that when Lam backed down on the withdrawal then she will eventually have to do the rest.
Even any greenhand in public relationship field knows that for any PR crisis, it must be dealt with immediately and straight to the specific point. On the other hand, if a politician does something only because of the pressure from his/her opponent then he/she can only be in the underdog position. However, Lam and her boss in the far North committed these two mistakes. People just can't help but puzzling why on earth the top leadership of the world's second largest economy would commit such stupid and elementary mistakes.
For anyone who buys the saying that the anti-extradition bill movement at its later stage was hijacked to be the U.S.'s Hong Kong card against China will agree that apparently the former is playing this game far more smarter than is the latter. In the beginning the movement was solely a locally sprouted one originating from the distrust on Beijing but the U.S. capitalizes on this sentiment as well as the many long-existed social issues in Hong Kong to brew the movement into an anti-China campaign. The most ingenious part of the game is that the battle field is not in the U.S. but in Hong Kong which is also the China's soil. Therefore the U.S. can have the cake of either that when its plan works out then Hong Kong card can deter China's rising and even if the plan fails, the damages to Hong Kong arising from the recent chaos do not hurt the U.S. at all so it has nothing to lose but could possibly succeed in combating China if in luck. People once said the British is best in playing politic but it seems the American has already outpaced their relatives since they defeated the British Empire. In politic gaming China appears like a primary school student comparing to her American counterpart.The U.S. can rest relieved that China is in no way capable to challenge its alpha status.
In the broadcasting, Lam appeared weary and short of spirit. Undoubtedly she must has gone through very hard time during the past few months especially the past August when the confrontation between the radical protestors and the police escalated into a new height. Pressure from the North to settle the chaos in its soonest was mounting but on the other hand Beijing's tie on Lam's hand for concession just drove her crazy. Lam's listlessness did come with good reason because she knows well just the withdrawal itself will certainly not meet the request from the public on the five demands. Her ordeal is far from over.
It is widely believed that Lam is forbidden on any concession on the five demands without the consent from Beijing so her announcement on the withdrawal is definitely not at her own discretion. This is really an extremely stupid decision to make concession on withdrawing the proposal of the bill only. The move not only fails to ease the tension between Lam's administration and the public when the slogan "all five demands or nothing" has been deeply rooted in the protestors' mind but also produces a speculation that when Lam backed down on the withdrawal then she will eventually have to do the rest.
Even any greenhand in public relationship field knows that for any PR crisis, it must be dealt with immediately and straight to the specific point. On the other hand, if a politician does something only because of the pressure from his/her opponent then he/she can only be in the underdog position. However, Lam and her boss in the far North committed these two mistakes. People just can't help but puzzling why on earth the top leadership of the world's second largest economy would commit such stupid and elementary mistakes.
For anyone who buys the saying that the anti-extradition bill movement at its later stage was hijacked to be the U.S.'s Hong Kong card against China will agree that apparently the former is playing this game far more smarter than is the latter. In the beginning the movement was solely a locally sprouted one originating from the distrust on Beijing but the U.S. capitalizes on this sentiment as well as the many long-existed social issues in Hong Kong to brew the movement into an anti-China campaign. The most ingenious part of the game is that the battle field is not in the U.S. but in Hong Kong which is also the China's soil. Therefore the U.S. can have the cake of either that when its plan works out then Hong Kong card can deter China's rising and even if the plan fails, the damages to Hong Kong arising from the recent chaos do not hurt the U.S. at all so it has nothing to lose but could possibly succeed in combating China if in luck. People once said the British is best in playing politic but it seems the American has already outpaced their relatives since they defeated the British Empire. In politic gaming China appears like a primary school student comparing to her American counterpart.The U.S. can rest relieved that China is in no way capable to challenge its alpha status.
2019年8月31日 星期六
What destined, inevitably is going to happen
Dark shadow cast over this island as well as the world. Coincidentally both relate to the world's second largest economy.
Following the recent retaliative import tariff launched from both sides, the tension between the U.S. and China escalated to a new height. It became clearer and clearer that the conflict between the two has nothing to do with the trade imbalance but just the wrestling on the world leadership. It seems Trump has lost his patience on the so-called trade talk when he realized that it is the tactic that China uses to buy time to prepare herself for an even wider scope of confrontation not only confined to the trade aspect.
China's plan is to keep buying agricultural products from the U.S. at one hand letting Trump to get the support he needs from the farmers on the presidential election so that the trade talk can drag on and on. On the other hand, she just slowly depreciates RMB exchange rate and adjust her economy's reliance on the export especially to the U.S. market to undermine the impact on her export arising from the increased tariff.
With the recent release of the trade statistic, China appears to remain intact under the prevailing increased import tariff rates applicable to her export to the U.S. and this is certainly not what Trump is happy to see. There are signs that import tariff hike is just a double-edged sword to the U.S. especially when the second round of tariff hike is set to be effective from September 1 while China seems to continue to use RMB exchange rate as a counter measure. However, tax-led price hike definitely will not only hurt the consumer spending sentiment in the U.S. but also a substantive hit on the coming holiday shopping spree. The diminishing impact to China arising from the import tariff on her export drives Trump resorts to the alternative measure to deal with China.
Yesterday Trump announced the establishment of the new Space Command. In his speech, Trump explicitly said this is a move to counter the threat from China and Russia on the American satellites. Apart from the telecommunication and scientific observation purposes, satellites' main job is for military operation, a more explicit expression, for warfare. This latest move at this critical moment signals that Trump is in the preparation of a war with China as a last resort on the wrestling of world champion. People might take it lightly that it is only an intimidating action but judging from what Trump said and done in the past, he means business, especially this is China's moment of make or break. If she can survive and even be prosperous under the U.S.'s current clamping then China is going to be a real formidable nation which the U.S. can no longer contain. The U.S. could has destroyed the then new born nation with A-bomb to avoid the potential threat when the CCP founded communist China 70 years ago. Will it miss the chance again? Most of all, can it afford to miss again when the threat is no longer potential but imminent?
The world has enjoyed peace for a long time, too long that people almost forget warfare could be just around the corner. People escaped from the Cold War with luck. However, the world is not big enough to accommodate two leaders just like only one alpha male exists in every pride. What destined, inevitably is going to happen.
Following the recent retaliative import tariff launched from both sides, the tension between the U.S. and China escalated to a new height. It became clearer and clearer that the conflict between the two has nothing to do with the trade imbalance but just the wrestling on the world leadership. It seems Trump has lost his patience on the so-called trade talk when he realized that it is the tactic that China uses to buy time to prepare herself for an even wider scope of confrontation not only confined to the trade aspect.
China's plan is to keep buying agricultural products from the U.S. at one hand letting Trump to get the support he needs from the farmers on the presidential election so that the trade talk can drag on and on. On the other hand, she just slowly depreciates RMB exchange rate and adjust her economy's reliance on the export especially to the U.S. market to undermine the impact on her export arising from the increased tariff.
With the recent release of the trade statistic, China appears to remain intact under the prevailing increased import tariff rates applicable to her export to the U.S. and this is certainly not what Trump is happy to see. There are signs that import tariff hike is just a double-edged sword to the U.S. especially when the second round of tariff hike is set to be effective from September 1 while China seems to continue to use RMB exchange rate as a counter measure. However, tax-led price hike definitely will not only hurt the consumer spending sentiment in the U.S. but also a substantive hit on the coming holiday shopping spree. The diminishing impact to China arising from the import tariff on her export drives Trump resorts to the alternative measure to deal with China.
Yesterday Trump announced the establishment of the new Space Command. In his speech, Trump explicitly said this is a move to counter the threat from China and Russia on the American satellites. Apart from the telecommunication and scientific observation purposes, satellites' main job is for military operation, a more explicit expression, for warfare. This latest move at this critical moment signals that Trump is in the preparation of a war with China as a last resort on the wrestling of world champion. People might take it lightly that it is only an intimidating action but judging from what Trump said and done in the past, he means business, especially this is China's moment of make or break. If she can survive and even be prosperous under the U.S.'s current clamping then China is going to be a real formidable nation which the U.S. can no longer contain. The U.S. could has destroyed the then new born nation with A-bomb to avoid the potential threat when the CCP founded communist China 70 years ago. Will it miss the chance again? Most of all, can it afford to miss again when the threat is no longer potential but imminent?
The world has enjoyed peace for a long time, too long that people almost forget warfare could be just around the corner. People escaped from the Cold War with luck. However, the world is not big enough to accommodate two leaders just like only one alpha male exists in every pride. What destined, inevitably is going to happen.
2019年8月16日 星期五
Unlock (2)
In my previous post with the same title I mentioned that the protestors' strategy is to disturb Hong Kong's economy so that the business sector is hit as such they will apply pressure on Lam's administration for solution as a result hoping Lam will back off.
Today Hong Kong's richest man tycoon Li Ka Shing has made a full front page ad in a few newspapers expressing his concern over the development of the anti-extradition movement so far. The ad came into two versions. While one of them is rather "conventional" urging no more violence but the other version is quite interesting with much undertone and implication within it.
The content of the right hand side ad is quoted from a sentence from an ancient Chinese poem. The background of the poem is that during a monarchy struggle the queen killed her son and planned to kill another one as well. In the poem this victim expressed his sorrow with an analogy of the overharvested crop just cannot stand any more picking that how come his mother was so cruel on her offspring killing them one after another.
Some said tycoon Li has already used the same citation during the chaos in the Occupy Central Movement in 2016 so he just used it again in this event with similar scenario. However, one must know tycoon Li is with super extraordinary high wisdom. Everything he did carries a meaning and serves a specific purpose. The two ads apparently address to two different categories of audiences. The conventional one on the left is straight forward and explicit without twist, simply no more violence while targeted audience certainly includes protestors but perhaps police as well.
The choice of the citation in the ad on the left is apparently more subtle in meaning and controversial on the audience. The trick of the citation lies on the implication who the overharvested crop is and who is overharvesting now. The choice of the citation is an ingenious one which reflects how wise tycoon Li is. The beauty of the citation lies on the background of the poem. The key point is the mother queen killed her sons one after another. Who on earth once claimed herself is a loving mother? If she is really qualified to be mother of all Hong Kong children, is she doing the thing similar to the ancient mother queen did now? Bravo! Mr. Li.
Tycoon Li is the lead man of Hong Kong's business community. He has made a high profile yet subtle message to our loving mother now. Mama, if you did not hear what the people sing, can you pick up what Mr. Li is saying?
Today Hong Kong's richest man tycoon Li Ka Shing has made a full front page ad in a few newspapers expressing his concern over the development of the anti-extradition movement so far. The ad came into two versions. While one of them is rather "conventional" urging no more violence but the other version is quite interesting with much undertone and implication within it.
The content of the right hand side ad is quoted from a sentence from an ancient Chinese poem. The background of the poem is that during a monarchy struggle the queen killed her son and planned to kill another one as well. In the poem this victim expressed his sorrow with an analogy of the overharvested crop just cannot stand any more picking that how come his mother was so cruel on her offspring killing them one after another.
Some said tycoon Li has already used the same citation during the chaos in the Occupy Central Movement in 2016 so he just used it again in this event with similar scenario. However, one must know tycoon Li is with super extraordinary high wisdom. Everything he did carries a meaning and serves a specific purpose. The two ads apparently address to two different categories of audiences. The conventional one on the left is straight forward and explicit without twist, simply no more violence while targeted audience certainly includes protestors but perhaps police as well.
The choice of the citation in the ad on the left is apparently more subtle in meaning and controversial on the audience. The trick of the citation lies on the implication who the overharvested crop is and who is overharvesting now. The choice of the citation is an ingenious one which reflects how wise tycoon Li is. The beauty of the citation lies on the background of the poem. The key point is the mother queen killed her sons one after another. Who on earth once claimed herself is a loving mother? If she is really qualified to be mother of all Hong Kong children, is she doing the thing similar to the ancient mother queen did now? Bravo! Mr. Li.
Tycoon Li is the lead man of Hong Kong's business community. He has made a high profile yet subtle message to our loving mother now. Mama, if you did not hear what the people sing, can you pick up what Mr. Li is saying?
2019年8月14日 星期三
Unlock
Everybody here in Hong Kong is talking about the deadlock which Hong Kong is facing now and it seems apart from those cliche urging violent protestors to calm down and stop violence but nothing new. Nor is it really receptive and mostly of all, that works. The deadlock is attributed by the insistence and persistence that the Hong Kong government and its counterpart both think that they are doing the right thing and none of the two sides wants to back off.
What makes the deadlock keeps dragging on is that neither the radical protestors nor the police can make an overwhelming success over their counterpart. Undoubtedly the riot police is better equipped but the violent protestors also have their edge that they are out-numbered the former and their tactics are much more agile and proactive than that of the police who can only be reactive when there is mass gathering and sign of violence. Contrarily, the violent protestors enjoy much greater freedom on where and when to launch their actions, especially with a guerilla tactic.
This is the situation at the front line. At the back office, Carrie Lam's administration is in the underdog position as well because Lam is handicapped in most areas on the handling of the situation. She is not allowed to make concession on things which Beijing sees as a undermining on the sovereignty over Hong Kong or a damage to the central government's authority. Locally she is also pressurized by the police that no independent inquiry commission is acceptable. Therefore basically Lam can do nothing on the five major demands raised by the public. Her persistent non responsiveness just fuels the protest against her. Her inability on concession, however, gives much leeway on her counterpart to launch more attack on her.
While Lam is in underdog but her counterpart also have not made much progress on their agenda neither. Their strategy is to disturb the economy in Hong Kong and to capitalize on business sector's pressure to Lam on the back down. However, they are walking on a very fine line that if they are not successful within a short period of time, as and when the general public is out of patience on the disturbance of traffic and regular livelihood, the support or at least the understanding on their radical actions will lose steam. Public sentiment could change rather quickly.
To unlock the current deadlock, there must be either one side be able to make a breakthrough. Hope on the government is slim because red lines have been drawn by Beijing whom think they are formidable that no concession is necessary nor suitable especially they see this movement is actually a master piece of foreign force that trying to deter China's rise by pulling her leg with Hong Kong issue. Beijing's last masterstroke resorts to the deployment of PLA but this is really a double-edged sword. It is not desirable and preferable for both Beijing and Hong Kong so this is the last resort which Beijing is reluctant to use except absolute necessary.
The government's counterpart is also in a dilemma that their escalating radical actions could possibly create negative feeling against them if things drag on too long but fails to generate big enough pressure from the business sector and the so far majority supporting society. They need stronger and more severe damage on the economy to create the adequate pressure on the government. Likewise, this is also a double-edged sword to the counterpart as well. However, there seems to be more room for them to play around on the strategy than is the government.
To make a breakthrough, the opponents could alter their tactic against the police. Instead of routine radical confrontation or even ever escalating deployment of weapons which just gave the police the justification on their brutal suppression and also possibly generates a violent image which is not quite receptive by the main stream opinion. On the contrary perhaps the protestors can adopt a softer approach and much lower violent yet with much economic disturbing actions as a means for their goal. Except it is more receptive by the public and the beauty is that the protestors can leverage on their agility and flexibility on the location and timing for their actions. Guerilla tactic can drain the police's energy and not fighting back with laser beams, bricks or petrol bombs that will not lead the officers taking it personal as they are not attacked physically and personally.
Lam's administration relies heavily on the deployment of police to counter the protestors actions. A more favourable option to the protestors is probably to rip the police off from the government. The association for the front line officers has once made an open announcement to their management expressing their concern that police force is used on political conflict. Just image wearing a full gear and working longer hours in the hot summer days/nights day in day out without an end, it is believed no officer is happy with that. Naturally they are disciplined force which must be obedient but when the situation drags on and the police officers are getting more and more fatigue. After taking off their uniforms these officers are individuals with independent thinking. They will ask who on earth gives them this ordeal and why the hell they have it. At a time the collective resistant sentiment is high enough then the government just cannot neglect it.
The protestors should not put themselves into confronting role against the police. This will just push the police becoming Lam's administration's ally if both are seen as enemies by protestors. This is certainly not the ideal situation. When Lam's administration loses its only local supporting force while Beijing is reluctant on the deployment of PLA then perhaps it is the time a breakthrough can be seen, hopefully.
What makes the deadlock keeps dragging on is that neither the radical protestors nor the police can make an overwhelming success over their counterpart. Undoubtedly the riot police is better equipped but the violent protestors also have their edge that they are out-numbered the former and their tactics are much more agile and proactive than that of the police who can only be reactive when there is mass gathering and sign of violence. Contrarily, the violent protestors enjoy much greater freedom on where and when to launch their actions, especially with a guerilla tactic.
This is the situation at the front line. At the back office, Carrie Lam's administration is in the underdog position as well because Lam is handicapped in most areas on the handling of the situation. She is not allowed to make concession on things which Beijing sees as a undermining on the sovereignty over Hong Kong or a damage to the central government's authority. Locally she is also pressurized by the police that no independent inquiry commission is acceptable. Therefore basically Lam can do nothing on the five major demands raised by the public. Her persistent non responsiveness just fuels the protest against her. Her inability on concession, however, gives much leeway on her counterpart to launch more attack on her.
While Lam is in underdog but her counterpart also have not made much progress on their agenda neither. Their strategy is to disturb the economy in Hong Kong and to capitalize on business sector's pressure to Lam on the back down. However, they are walking on a very fine line that if they are not successful within a short period of time, as and when the general public is out of patience on the disturbance of traffic and regular livelihood, the support or at least the understanding on their radical actions will lose steam. Public sentiment could change rather quickly.
To unlock the current deadlock, there must be either one side be able to make a breakthrough. Hope on the government is slim because red lines have been drawn by Beijing whom think they are formidable that no concession is necessary nor suitable especially they see this movement is actually a master piece of foreign force that trying to deter China's rise by pulling her leg with Hong Kong issue. Beijing's last masterstroke resorts to the deployment of PLA but this is really a double-edged sword. It is not desirable and preferable for both Beijing and Hong Kong so this is the last resort which Beijing is reluctant to use except absolute necessary.
The government's counterpart is also in a dilemma that their escalating radical actions could possibly create negative feeling against them if things drag on too long but fails to generate big enough pressure from the business sector and the so far majority supporting society. They need stronger and more severe damage on the economy to create the adequate pressure on the government. Likewise, this is also a double-edged sword to the counterpart as well. However, there seems to be more room for them to play around on the strategy than is the government.
To make a breakthrough, the opponents could alter their tactic against the police. Instead of routine radical confrontation or even ever escalating deployment of weapons which just gave the police the justification on their brutal suppression and also possibly generates a violent image which is not quite receptive by the main stream opinion. On the contrary perhaps the protestors can adopt a softer approach and much lower violent yet with much economic disturbing actions as a means for their goal. Except it is more receptive by the public and the beauty is that the protestors can leverage on their agility and flexibility on the location and timing for their actions. Guerilla tactic can drain the police's energy and not fighting back with laser beams, bricks or petrol bombs that will not lead the officers taking it personal as they are not attacked physically and personally.
Lam's administration relies heavily on the deployment of police to counter the protestors actions. A more favourable option to the protestors is probably to rip the police off from the government. The association for the front line officers has once made an open announcement to their management expressing their concern that police force is used on political conflict. Just image wearing a full gear and working longer hours in the hot summer days/nights day in day out without an end, it is believed no officer is happy with that. Naturally they are disciplined force which must be obedient but when the situation drags on and the police officers are getting more and more fatigue. After taking off their uniforms these officers are individuals with independent thinking. They will ask who on earth gives them this ordeal and why the hell they have it. At a time the collective resistant sentiment is high enough then the government just cannot neglect it.
The protestors should not put themselves into confronting role against the police. This will just push the police becoming Lam's administration's ally if both are seen as enemies by protestors. This is certainly not the ideal situation. When Lam's administration loses its only local supporting force while Beijing is reluctant on the deployment of PLA then perhaps it is the time a breakthrough can be seen, hopefully.
2019年8月8日 星期四
Hemophilic value investors (2)
I used to write a post in the same topic hemophilic value investors back nine months ago. First of all, I make it clear again it is no offense with such heading but just wanted to bring out the fact that the moments when value investors have a good appetite are that when tragedies happen that bring fear, as Buffet puts it when others are fearful be greedy.
While the world major indexes like DJ, FTSE, DAX and Nikkei are still hanging around their relatively high level, HSI has already down 22% from its peak. The reasons are multiple. HSI reached its peak by 2018 January but then it experienced an almost straight fall from February till October sparkled by the trade tension between the U.S. and China. Only when the two bosses of the world's two largest economy met in December in the same year then the meeting brought HSI a short-lived four months rebounce in this year then followed by an on-going plunge amid the worsening relationship between the two since this May compounded with the ever escalating social tension locally due to the anti-extradition bill in the past two months.
Technically HSI has already entered into the bear market. With the view of Elliot Wave Principle, HSI is also in the course of wave C. Unlike the pattern in the textbooks, this wave C could be a tricky one though because Hong Kong is an highly opened market so it is prone to be affected by the overseas markets and the China market as well, amid the local incidents. The ever increasing listing of Chinese companies in the HKEX and their high ratio among the constituency in the HSI renders a dominance on the movement in the Index along the outlook of China economy. Among the overseas markets, the U.S. stock market no doubt has the most impact on the HSI.
These two major drivers are with contradictory impact on the HSI, at least in the year to come. Still being an export-oriented country, China's economy will inevitably be hit under the hindrance of the trade war, so will her stock market be and this is a gravity on the HSI. However, as Trump is doing everything he can to drive up the U.S.'s stock market to facilitate his second term presidency campaign, the DJ and S&P should be staying in the high level, if not to break another record high, at least in 2020. This is a pulling force on the HSI.
While there are upward and downward forces on the HSI in the long run, it seems the local incident plays an even more decisive factor on the HSI at least in the latter half of 2019. The impact of the social tension and the ever increasing frequency on the police-protestors confrontation start to emerge on the economic activities. Stock market and property market, the two thermometers of the well-being of Hong Kong economy, are not immutable. Rumors of capital outflow from the Island went viral indeed. Along with the recent development, Hong Kong is no longer seen as a capital safe heaven, especially to some controversial funds. To add to its woes, the meeting in yesterday in Shenzhen held by the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office further brought doubt and worry on the deployment of China soldiers(PLA) in suppressing confrontations as hinted by the quasi spoke persons or messengers after the meeting.
As the anti-extradition bill movement is hijacked by forces with otherwise intention, on the other hand, the lame duck Hong Kong government is handicapped by Beijing on the concession on the five demands raised by the public, confrontation and escalating violence will not go away but just intensify. The deployment of PLA in combating protestors is not the question of whether or not but when. These soldiers are no boy scout nor are they ordinary army which protects their own fellow. People should not forget what they did in a hot summer night 30 years ago in the far northern city. Indeed these soldiers are embedded in the downtown of the Island so people should not be surprised if they are spotted with their tanks in the streets of Hong Kong soil. The nightmare bloodshed haunting for 30 years just comes alive again.
Value investors, are you ready for the feast?
While the world major indexes like DJ, FTSE, DAX and Nikkei are still hanging around their relatively high level, HSI has already down 22% from its peak. The reasons are multiple. HSI reached its peak by 2018 January but then it experienced an almost straight fall from February till October sparkled by the trade tension between the U.S. and China. Only when the two bosses of the world's two largest economy met in December in the same year then the meeting brought HSI a short-lived four months rebounce in this year then followed by an on-going plunge amid the worsening relationship between the two since this May compounded with the ever escalating social tension locally due to the anti-extradition bill in the past two months.
Technically HSI has already entered into the bear market. With the view of Elliot Wave Principle, HSI is also in the course of wave C. Unlike the pattern in the textbooks, this wave C could be a tricky one though because Hong Kong is an highly opened market so it is prone to be affected by the overseas markets and the China market as well, amid the local incidents. The ever increasing listing of Chinese companies in the HKEX and their high ratio among the constituency in the HSI renders a dominance on the movement in the Index along the outlook of China economy. Among the overseas markets, the U.S. stock market no doubt has the most impact on the HSI.
These two major drivers are with contradictory impact on the HSI, at least in the year to come. Still being an export-oriented country, China's economy will inevitably be hit under the hindrance of the trade war, so will her stock market be and this is a gravity on the HSI. However, as Trump is doing everything he can to drive up the U.S.'s stock market to facilitate his second term presidency campaign, the DJ and S&P should be staying in the high level, if not to break another record high, at least in 2020. This is a pulling force on the HSI.
While there are upward and downward forces on the HSI in the long run, it seems the local incident plays an even more decisive factor on the HSI at least in the latter half of 2019. The impact of the social tension and the ever increasing frequency on the police-protestors confrontation start to emerge on the economic activities. Stock market and property market, the two thermometers of the well-being of Hong Kong economy, are not immutable. Rumors of capital outflow from the Island went viral indeed. Along with the recent development, Hong Kong is no longer seen as a capital safe heaven, especially to some controversial funds. To add to its woes, the meeting in yesterday in Shenzhen held by the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office further brought doubt and worry on the deployment of China soldiers(PLA) in suppressing confrontations as hinted by the quasi spoke persons or messengers after the meeting.
As the anti-extradition bill movement is hijacked by forces with otherwise intention, on the other hand, the lame duck Hong Kong government is handicapped by Beijing on the concession on the five demands raised by the public, confrontation and escalating violence will not go away but just intensify. The deployment of PLA in combating protestors is not the question of whether or not but when. These soldiers are no boy scout nor are they ordinary army which protects their own fellow. People should not forget what they did in a hot summer night 30 years ago in the far northern city. Indeed these soldiers are embedded in the downtown of the Island so people should not be surprised if they are spotted with their tanks in the streets of Hong Kong soil. The nightmare bloodshed haunting for 30 years just comes alive again.
Value investors, are you ready for the feast?
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