Omicron, OhMyGod!

While the news that the Hong Kong government's talk with its sovereign government sheds some light on the conditional re-openning of the border between the two, people here in Hong Kong is yet to be happy but then in the past week there was a news about a fast spreading  new powerful mutant of the Covid-19 emerged in the Africa and spreading to the rest of the world now. The WTO terms it with the 15th Greek alphabet, Omicron, but I think to most of the people can't help but cry out its nakename Oh-my-god.

It is Oh-my-god because this mutant is not just another one that has been around in the past. This Omicron is far more contagious than its family while whether or not far more deadly is still unknown yet. On the other hand people can't help but cry out OMG because the whole world has rested their hope on the vaccination that as long as the vaccination level is high enough then life can be resumed and economy will be recovered. In fact the living-with-virus (LWV) approach that rest on a higher vaccination level has already been adopted by many countries whose economy were badly hit due to the lockdown in the past or at least strict restriction on the people flow as well as the goods transportation disruption. These countries are desparately in need on the economic resurgence because most of the LWV countries are democratic nations that the current administrations will most likely be voted down if their people still suffer from the poor living due to the economic downturn. The emergence of the Omicron is really Ohmygod to both the administrations as well as the people in these countries.

In my post light-at-end-of-tunnel2 I was skeptical on the LWV approach already. However three months has passed by since then and more and more countries are forced to adopt the LWV approach under the tremendous pressure on economic resurgence. Let alone the downside which I mentioned in the Post but in fact the LWV approach is vulnerable because its assumption of the herd immunity rests on an high level of vaccination among the whole population which unfortunately does not happen in these LWV countries. The key reasonale lies on the protection against infection resulting from vaccination or at least the low fatility rate even if infected so people can generally live a relatively normal life. 

However, the fatal blow to the LWV approach now is that the Omicron is such a mutant that it can effectively escape from the detection mechanism of the existing vaccines making them almost useless. If the Omicron is also a deadly variant that it will just be a death sentence on the LWV approach. The whole world will just fall into the looping of the lockdown and reopen thus the economy is paralysed so is the people's livelihood.

The another risk of the LWV is that it provides a perfect breeding ground for the Virus to evolve and mutate into an highly contagious and deadly mutant. Viruses need a host providing them an habitat so they can live. As long as they live then they keep evolving to combat on the obstacles like antibotics. In fact all creatures live and thrive in this way by overcoming obstacles but the point is that the evolution rate of the micro organisum is much higher that of their hosts as well as the pace of the new vaccine development. The outcome is the viruses always lead the race. LWV provides an environment that there are many vaccinated hosts as well as unvaccinated virus carriers mingling together. Mutated virus can keep infecting the vaccinated hosts to test breaking the effectiveness of vaccines via a fast evolution. The emergence of a highly deadly variant is not the question of whether or not but as a matter of fact just time. The leaders of the LWV governments seem overlook the fact that virus will definitely defeat the existing vaccines in one day and human always lack behind on the new vaccine development.

Omicron may or may not be very deadly but if the leaders in the LWV governments keep the game on then eventually there is one day people is bound to cry out Oh My God.

Two of a kind

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As the Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou and the two Canadian Michaels were released by the Canadian government and China government respectively, the detention farce has lowered the curtain. It is a farce because all sensible person understand the allegation of the two (or the three) detentions were just excuse. Meng was detained at the same day when the U.S. and China began the trade war negotiation so apparently she was used as a bargaining chip by the U.S. Having said, naturally Meng has committed the act in the allegation and this was truly a crime. However, such act could be ignored or at least tolerated when the accused was not Meng or Meng is not the daughter of the founder of Huawei whose 5G technology is the U.S.'s Archilles heel. Unfortunately she is what she is so Meng was chosen as a bargaining chip.

The two Canadian Michaels are among the hundreds thousand foreigners who are living in China but unfortunately they are Canadian. An nationality with sin at the time when the first detention happened. They were arrested days after Meng's detention under the accusation of the violation of China's national security which is by right a very serious and complicated act of crime so the investigation should require a long time. Anyway, only nine days after Meng was detained then the two Michaels were arrested and charged with the accusation. Any sensible person will not think the investigation has begun just after Meng's detention and could complete within nine days. Then why the arrest happened just a few days after Meng's case? Apparently the investigation has begun long before Meng's case but was just kept on hold until the right timing comes. However, China reiterates repeatedly many times and even just after the release that the two Canadian's prosecution has nothing to do with the Meng's case. Their case was an independent one from Meng's. 

Since Meng's arrest, China has been accusing Canada arbitrarily detained Meng and that was a political persecution. Anyway, the U.S. prosecutor claimed that Meng's presentation to the HSBC was a  misleading about Huawei's business with Iran. That act misled the HSBC into the infringement of the U.S. sanction against Iran. Apparently Meng is not totally innocent in the surface. 

On the other hand, the two Canadian Michaels were arrested with the accusation of violating China's national security. In China anything as long as relates to national security will be processed, including court trial, in the dark so no details or even just brief information will be released to the public. Therefore some western observers even suspect that the prosecution was just a fabricated accusation. Naturally only the two parties involved know the truth.

The farce was over now but before that the whole world was in the state "sit back, relax, and enjoy" to see how the show would end. This was something like the combat between Mafia and Sinaloa Cartel. People know that both arrests were injustice. The then U.S. President Trump once suggested that Meng could be part a trade deal with China. China described it as a coercive diplomacy. However, the two Canadian Michaels' arrest happened just nine days after Meng's so it suggested that the prosecution was solely a retaliation. Some commentators even termed it as hostage diplomacy. In any case both arrests were disgraceful acts and injustice. While enjoying the show, people can't help but just question the ethic level of the world's biggest and second largest economy. Naturally people understand that the farce happened under the context of the combat on the world leadership between the two superpowers. When things relate to national interests then compromise is always at the expense of justice.

To most onlooker nations, the two cases are merely a farce. All announcements regarding these two cases by the respective governments, no matter how serious they may sound, are just jokes. Having said, when China reiterates the two Michaels' case are independent from Meng's one, people just can't help but ask does Beijing really think a lie will become a fact when repeated a hundred times?

 

Tora! Tora! Tora!

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Appologize for my lousy gag again. This post has nothing to do with the famous movie about the Japan's attack on Pearl Harbour, nor anything about that piece of history in WII. The title just borrows the analogy of the code which Caption Fuchida used to kick off the bombing at the Harbour to signalize something very important is under way and people must be very cautious about, just like an airstrike is coming soon.

When Xi, the top boss of the CCP, PLA and State, of China first laid the term "common prosperity" in a CCP's meeting in the middle of last month, such speech sparkled big chaos in the business circle in China as well as the investing world. Xi's speech brings out the concept of "the third distribution of wealth" meaning the riches donate their wealth under their will to help the poors contrary to the "first distribution" through wages or dividends payout by corporations while the "second distribution" is achieved by social welfare system via taxation.

Frankly speaking donation is nothing new and should not deserve so much attention in the democratic countries. People, be s/he rich or not, donate or do not donate as well as the donation amount is done according to their own will. Donation is solely a personal and private act despite our society usually admire those who do so but no criticism to those who don't though. While some donors did it in high profile some just made big donation anonymous and despite the formers asked for fame but the latters are truly out of kindness. People are just acting according to their own will.

Unlike what we do in the free world, despite the CCP just made appeal to the riches on the donation/aids, such appeal is heavy-weighted, especially that came from the nation's top boss who is in high power now and where the norm "florish if obidient, perish otherwise" prevails. New rich corporations like Tencent and Alibaba... etc react promptly by making funds in billions of U.S. dollors to answer to this "appeal". They know the name of the game is survival in the place where the Party has the utmost leadership on everything, a characteristic of China's socialism.

Since the open-door policy raised by Deng Xiaoping by the 80s', China has been a magnet of investment. Foreign corporations capitalized on her low costs in running businesses at the beginning to set up manufacturing facilities as well as the exploration on the huge market when the Nation is getting rich in the latter stage. While some pioneers got their fingers burnt, many made good profit out of this country. Hence foreign investors seems either have ignored or forgotten China is still a Communist Party run country where "happy hours" is only something Cinderella. Afterall, the clock is bounded to strike to twelve.

Indeed Common Prosperity is one the central themes of Communism which advocates Common Ownership across Means of Production including assets and of course, wealth. Common Prosperity is only the means but not the end towards the "great ideal". 

As China adopted open-door policy, the western world concerted alongside to embrace her into their system by allowing her into the WTO as well as many international organizations hoping to induce her to join their "club". China thus prospers under the explosive trade volume with the West and became the second largest economy after the U.S. but despite bagging the jackpot, she is still committed and determined on the ideology and institution of her own. China remains a communism country.

Alongside with the advocate of common prosperity, China has recently launched quite some regulation on a few industries like the private tuition, e-game, ride-hailing, food delivery and movie artist ...etc., addressing to different concerns like the data safety, education focus as well as parents' financial burden, mental healthyness of youths and children and corrupted entertaining sector...All in all, China wants to pursuit a path different from the western world to differentiate herself as a China-charactistic socialism country.

With this ambition in mind, more regulation on many other industries and sectors are expected in the pipeline. The business landscape in China perhaps will see a totally different scenario from the past in the years to come. Maybe this is the time to farewell to the "good old time" in investing in China. On the other hand, the most horroble thing in investing in China is that the once successful strategy and experience could become a poison overnightly as long as the top boss in Beijing changes his mind. Perhaps no one could imagine that economic moat, big is beautiful, high profit...which were valued in the past now became a sin. Many stock commentators blah blah on the analysis in China stocks based on fundamentals or financials but what all these commentators fail to foresee is policy risk.

Tora! Tora! Tora! A storm is coming.

Light at the end of tunnel?(2)

In the post with the same title light-at-end-of-tunnelwritten at the turn of this year I was not optimistic on the hopes(dream?) resting on the vaccines which were just put in the market. Eight months have passed since then and unfortunately things just happened exactly as I mentioned in the previous post. 

Not only an high herd immunity arising from high vacination rate among the developed countries like the U.S. and the U.K. is yet achieved, on the other hand a high contagious mutant virus, Delta, do exist as forecasted, luckily not as deadly as mentioned though. The even worse news is that more and more people even fully vaccinated with two jabs were found infected and at the same time constagious to other people. The hypothesis of herd immunity seems at the brink of collapse. The hope so far on the vaccination is only the protection against the mortality rate. Therefore countries like the U.K. and Singapore detour their strategy to live with the virus rather than a strict containment or even elimination in their soil. People argue that such approach is a bold bet. In fact such bet is just at the expense of those who are vulnerable to vaccination due to allergy or other unfit conditions. They are more likely to be infected then die from complication because of a higher vaccinated yet infected population walking around them.

The approach of living with virus devides the world between vaccinated and unvaccinated, domestically and internationally. It is quite clear in the international aspect on this devision, those rich countries are talking about the third boost jab on their nationals while many poor countries are desperate on vaccine quantity far below their population. The living with virus approach undoubtedly will lead to a higher transmission rate across borders as well as virus mutation rate. When the virus Delta evolves into a not only highly contagious but also more deadly mutant then people from these less developed countries is doomed. It is just a big joke on UN's declaration that “all human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights.” Let alone dignity, in reality some people always enjoy more rights while some others are deprived from even right to survive.

Unlike those poor countries where vaccine quantity available is far below from their population, ironically some people in the rich countries are resistant to vaccination. Apart from some who are allergic to vaccine or whose conditions are too vulnerable, for one reason or another like suspicious on the vaccine safety or the quest on the respect of their choice, there are quite some in the rich countries do not want to get their jabs. Therefore domestically there are also devision between vaccinated and unvaccinated in these countries. Disregard the reason of these unvaccinated people, Their life are at risk anyway when their countries adopt the living with virus approach because there are increasing vaccinated yet infected people spreading the virus around more than ever. It is fair enough for those who choose no jabs on their own but for those who are just unable to be vaccinated, such approach is nothing different from hanging their life on a thread.

While those adventurous nations are in trial of the risky bet of living with virus approach, many others are watching closely on the outcome. Frankly speaking time is not at their side because their economies are suffering badly from the containment approach. They are desparate for a wayout to resurgence. This is particularly true for those deomcratic countries where people tend to vote out an administration which fails to bring the ecomomy around. The governments in these countries most likely cannot help to bet on such approach at the expense of the unvaccinated.

Vaccine used to bring the hope of the light at the end of tunnel but when its halo fades, people realize that possibly the ordeal is far from over.

Where do you draw the line?

In the last weekend I watched an old movie, A Few Good Men, which was casted by Tom Cruise and Jack Nicholson. The story was about two Marines who were charged with murder on their fellow in the naval base camp in Guantanamo Bay. The two Marines assualted the fellow under an extrajudicial punishment in that base camp on soldiers whom made mistakes and they did that under the order by the base commander via the soldiers' superior's instruction in an unofficial manner and off record. The punishement accidentally led to the death of the victim. The two soldiers were trialed in the court-martial and Cruise was their trial lawyer.

As a movie, after twists and turns Cruise finally succeeded to defend the soldiers from the charge of murder because their simply performed an order from the superior whom in turn received instruction from the commander. People must be aware that an order from superior is absolute in places like millitary camp where obidience is everything. To defend the soldiers from their charges Cruise cleverly guided the commander to admit in the trial that it was him whom gave the order. The commander was held responsible and arrested for the death of his soldier due to his instruction of the extrajudicial  punishment. The movie is with Hollywood's usual formula that justice will be served and bad guys will be held accountable on their wrong-doings. The title of the movie is self-explanatory and Cruise and his team are these good men. Again as a movie, the ending of the movie is commercially uplifting because it meets people's quest for justice. The innocents were freed and the bad guys tasted his own medicine. 

In the movie Cruise was protraited as good man while Nicholson, the commander, a bad guy. In real life world it is not that simple and straight foward though. Cruise was a good man because he helped the innocent soldiers while Nicholson was bad because he managed his camp in stringent millitary dicipline. He gave the order of punishment to the victim because the latter went over the chain of command to peach his fellow to the HQ in exchange of his transfer out from the camp. This move pissed his commander off. 

The movie focused on the commander's responsibility of giving the punishment order which indirectly led to the death of the victim, I view the case with another perspective though. Cruise, an hero in the movie, brought a naval base commander to jail. Did he really preserve the justice? Meanwhile did he preserve the country's interests when he brought a commander whom played an important role in protecting the country into jail? As a lawyer in the movie, Cruise did his job successfully to defend his clients, the two Marines and did it beautifully. However, as such the country lost a naval commander despite whom did made mistake in giving the order. 

To further expand the scenario, in the movie the incident happened in the peace time so perhaps it did not significantly impact the level of national defence by putting an naval commander behind bars but what if the same commander did the same thing but in the time when the country was in war with rival nation? Will the loss of the nation as a whole outweigh the preservation of justice? What if the country loses in the war because of the absence of the commander? Will the same lawyer that preserves justice still be an hero in such case? If justice can be compromised because the commander is indispensable in war time then is justice something negotiable?

Where do you draw the line?

 

 

A weird day

 

This post is deliberately uploaded after the weird day in the calendar that only exists in a nonsense place under the nonsense regime to avoid the potential infringement of a nonsense law.

Nowhere else in the world where this particular date exists as 35th of May in the calendars in its territory. Sadly a small but renown island joined this nonsense place in this year. 

People in the Island was doing the same thing over the 31 years in the memorial of a tragedy happened on that day in a far away city 32 years ago. It became illegal and is strictly prohibited only starting from this year. The most ridiculous thing was that even people did not attend the prohibited assembly but wearing the specific attire or holding a lit candle in other locations would still be deemed as advocate of that assembly therefore would subject to arrest. Coercion of arrest and prosecution spread a white terror.

The autocratic regime might has thought it succeeded in making that incident to be out of sight, out of mind. Yet coercion is a double-edged sword per se. Coercion can stop people from making action or speech but it can never stop people from thinking. On the other hand, not doing or saying does not mean people will forget. Grievance will only grow stronger under coercion and it will just become a ticking time-bomb. 

Many nations made mistakes along their history. Only those who are brave enough to face their mistake and sincerely appologize for their wrong-doing can earn the respect from the world. Those who fail to do that no matter how strong its economy is, it remains a coward or at worst a rogue in nature whom is teased by the world.

People will not forget.

Killing two birds with one stone

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With the passage of the electoral reform on the HKSAR's elections in the National People Congress's standing committee meeting back a while ago, the whole electoral tradition and the political landscape in Hong Kong is going to change fundamentally, for good.

There are many ways to get the details of the Reform for people whom are really interested in it. In a nutshell, Beijing made many changes in the electoral system in the HKSAR to achieve the so-called Administering Hong Kong by Patriots by primarily screening out the candidates from the opposition camp through the reform on the nomination committee so that these candidates' nomination is a mission impossible in the first place. The aim is further secured by the newly formed candidates qualification censoring committee which members are the high officials in the HKSAR administration. Any opposition camp candidates who are so lucky to get enough nomination will then be kicked away by the Committee so they will never get an entrance ticket to run any elections, say for the District Councils or for the HKSAR Chief Exective. 

Local commentators mainly focus on the above affect on the opposition camp and perhaps it was so well camouflaged that Beijing's intention of killing two birds with one stone was concealed. Naturally sweeping the opposition from the institutional structure is one the of bird that Beijing is keen to kill, however, there is yet another one which Beijing wanted to get rid of all along, ie., the locally grown big masters namely the property developer tycoons. 

Among the changes on the constitution of the nomination committee, apart from the merger or even removal of the sectors which are opposition camp dominated, there is also shrinkage on the seats from the local business sector. Local business sector has been enjoying a big influence on the policies of the HKSAR's adminstration all along especially at the beginning of the reunion of Hong Kong to China. In their hey days, the big four local property developer families and with their backed Chief Executive, Donald Tsang, acted almost like the quasi CE in the HKSAR administration. It is also in Tsang's administration period basically there was no plan at all on the new land formation which in return led to the severe housing supply shortage in the following years to come. This problem became one of the deep-seated conflicts which the Hong Kong society as a whole is still facing as well as the huge profit for these property developer families. 

The situation did not go without Beijing's awareness but she relied on these big masters to help maintain Hong Kong's stability especially the economic stability which was mainly under the control of the Big Fours, let alone China's economic strength back 15 years ago was not as high as it is now. Everybody who knows the characteristic of the CCP knows that Deng Xiaoping, China's modern political architect, who has laid a national policy to hold the temper for the sake of economic development first. Beijing was just waiting for the right time when she is strong enough to stand on her feet and shake off the reliance on the Big Fours.

In fact Beijing's plan was not unnoticed, at least the Hong Kong's wealthiest person, nicked name Superman Li, did know what the game is all about. Li is known as the smartest businessman in Hong Kong and he is so knowledgeable and well known for his sharp vision over the global as well as local political and economic future developments. Li also knows the CCP's traditional characteristic of kicking away the used ladders as what they did to those partriotic capitalists after the founding of the new red China back 60 years ago. He has started the divesting from Hong Kong almost a decade ago and diversified an heavy investment in the U.K. instead. People might admire Li's foresight and insight when they see what happened on Alibaba in China now. See my earlier post Ant-man has been taken down

Under the CCP's ruling, any potential threat to its governing must be removed. It is only a matter of time if it has not happened yet. 

 

It is still Hong Kong, or is it?

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It's been almost two months that the Blog was not updated. Partly because I was busy on personal affair but mostly due to the concern over personal security that a prudent examination on the enactment of the Hong Kong version of National Security Law(NSL) here in Hong Kong is necessary. 

A drastic change on Bejing's attitude towards the pandemocratic camp figures since the beginning of this year was seen. A massive arrest on those figures whom have taken part into the 2020 pro-democracy primaries which aimed to narrow down the candidates list for the Legco general election which was supposed to be held in last September but was proponed by a year under the excuse of the epidemic. The accusation is that the Primiries is the action of subversion of the Adiministration in HK and the Regime therefore an violation of the NSL.

Naturally the accusation is controversial depending one's stance. Anyway, the beauty of being in power is that law is interpreted as the regime's will, let alone an autocratic one. On the other hand, this is the bonus of the effective containment of the epidemic in China who gained much confidence over the polarity on the economic development between her and her western counterparts so she can do whatever she wants at will blatantly with little worry about the reaction of the latter.

On the other hand, Beijing reiterates Hong Kong's affair is domestic issue so she has absolute discretion over the running on Hong Kong. As a matter of fact this statement is damn right that Hong Kong is part of China so arresting those whom are accused with involvement of subversion on the regime is completely lawful. The definition of the actions relating to subversion under the Law is controversial though.

Alongside with the massive arrest, during the China National People Congress meeting which is being held in Beijing now that motion has been raised to reform the Legco Election Committee in a large extent. The reform is meant to exclude any dissident the chance of being a lawmaker, or not even a candidate, for the coming Legco general election in this year. All in all heavy-handed measures were or going to be implemented just for the sake to eradicate the root of opposition out of Hong Kong, in name of administering Hong Kong by patriots. 

This is by far the most massive crackdown on the opposition after Hong Kong's reunion to China yet the main street is calm, or indifferent, leaving Beijing's mouthpieces doing their propaganda alone.  Apparently the NSL has achieved the intended chilling effect as the public has learned the way for self-protection under power.

Propaganda says Hong Kong returned to orderly from chaos due to the NSL. Yet the peace appears at the surface is indeed with an unrest undercurrent beneath it. The silence is the just result of authority which can suppress the expression of will but fails to stop the minds from forming. Most of the HongKongers are not keen in politics but many of them do not buy the political system in the North as well. However, many traces gave away telltales that Hong Kong is really integrating with China, livelihood as well as political system. 

The general public especially the grass-root is silence because they know they are bounded to stay and this is the only preservation to stay afloat under the authority. However, for those who are above average they have more alternatives. It is evidenced that quite a number of nations not only have extended their friendly attitude but some substantial measures to cater to the worry of the Hong Kong people. Naturally critiques or conspiracy comments are nothing short of from the propaganda again. To be honest, most of these potential citizens are top of the cream so welcome doors opened to them is nothing but just normal in the sense of mutual benefit.

Immigration is not cheap so those who are qualified are usually those sought after talents wanted by whatever countries no matter the east or west. America is the best showcase to examplify how the inflow of talents and capital can boost a country. Sadly these talents will just turn their back to their motherland but just fled to assist the counterpart due to politics.

Apart from the case of America, Hong Kong is renowned with its past achievement of economic success out from a formerly fishing village due to the influx of migrants and capital in exile before the red China was founded. It was talents that make this miracle happened. Perhaps China does not worry about the brain-drain because there are plenty supply from the north. In fact, there has been scheme introducing expertises from China in place all along. As a matter of fact those mostly western values-contaminated talents are anti-communism which is dyed in the wool.  It is not a bad idea to rinse Hong Kong with heavy-handed measures.

After all, One Country Two Systems is just a slogan and no matter the previously advocated Administering Hong Kong by HongKongers or the lastest version Administering Hong Kong by patriots are merely propaganda. What China needs Hong Kong to be is just a name claimed to be different from the autocratic regime so it can help facilitating between the regime and the western world for the sake of capital and technologies. It does not really matter who are living there and who are running it. As long as it is still called Hong Kong.

Or is it?

Light at the end of tunnel?

The most talk about issue locally here in Hong Kong remains the epidemic and the vaccine in the pipeline. With the absence of the dictatorship type of containment measures that is practiced in China, the western world as well as the democratic countries in Asia including Hong Kong are still struggling on the recent wave of the novel coronavirus. With the recent delivery of the vaccine, the whole world just sees the vaccine as the silver bullet to the dilemma as well as the economic resurgence. It seems as long as the vaccine is widely available to the general public then life will resume to normal so will the economy be.

Maintaining hope in life is important as to the drive to overcome difficulties, looking through rose-tinted glasses might bring more bad than good though. Let alone whether the so far major three vaccines available are proven to be effective is still not yet clinically certified, in fact none of them has finished the phrase III testing. The vaccine efficacy rate are all self claimed by the producers only. The most important point remains none of the producer is able to confirm the length of protection, even if the self-claimed efficacy rate is really valid. 

The whole world is forced to gamble on the effectiveness of these vaccines, sadly the price is that a vast numbers of people is to be the guinea pigs. According to the news, the vaccines do not have the supposed reception from the general public and this comes with good reason because despite the immediate serious side-effect rate after the vaccination so far is not high but since these vaccines have yet finished the normal and official testing process, the risks on the long term side-effect cannot be ruled out. 

The other concern on these vaccines is that the protection is unlike the other previously proven ones for other diseases that they can provide a comprehensive protection like immunity to infection and stops transmission even if infected, these three vaccines are not capable to stop transmission, at least no confirmation has ever made by the producers. Therefore even people take risk to be vaccinated yet the transmission chain will not be broken even if many people are vaccinated because the best self-claimed efficacy rate is 95% by the Pfiser followed by 94.1% by Moderna while Sinovac's has only 79% as self-claimed figure. Those infected even after vaccination can keep transmitting the disease unknowingly.

In a nutshell, resting the hope on the vaccine that it can end the pandemic thus the world can resume to normal and the world economy resurgence is just a wishful thinking. Let alone in reality people from the poor countries will not have access to vaccination so even if there is full vaccination in the rich countries the global transmission chain will never end indeed. The most optimistic forecast can only be the domestic resumption to normal within the rich countries on the basis that there is a nationwide full vaccination which is another wishful thinking.

On the other hand, while the whole world is putting its hope on the vaccine but it seems only little concern was put on the fact that vaccination is just a race against the viruses/germs because these microbes are constantly evolving and most of all, at a very fast rate which is way faster than the human's ability on vaccines development. In fact there were already more than 20 mutations found just in U.K. alone. Naturally not all mutations could bring more serious symptom or even more deadly but it is not whether or not but just a matter of time that a more deadly mutation is for sure in the pipeline as whether the more future mutations will become more friendly or deadly is just a random chance. Therefore chances are that before the western rich nations can achieve enough herd immunity through vaccination on their people, the Virus could has already mutated into a variation that the current vaccines are no longer protective leading the previous effort in vain. Let alone those poor nations are even not vaccinated due to financial constrain.

Higher the expectation, bigger disappointment will be when things turn out otherwise. As Trump's famous saying, we'll wait and see.