Probably a silver lining?

A political nuclear bomb exploded here in Hong Kong in last Friday when the news set in that China is going to establish a HK version of China National Security Law to be added into the HKSAR Basic Law in the form of an annex. This is commonly understood as a bypass of the Hong Kong Legco's failure to proceed on the law-making as per the Article 23 of the Basic Law after 22 years since the reunion with China. Apparently China is mad about the incompetence of the HKSAR government so lost her temper compounded with the more and more explicit squeezing from the U.S. during the last couple of years.

The article 23 of the Basic Law has been a taboo in Hong Kong because there is a fear among the general public that the infringement on human rights issues that happened across the border will happen in the island after the establishment of the Article. The worry on the further tightening amid the already ever increasing self-censorship on the freedom of speech, freedom of press and the independent jurisdiction surges when the news sets in. The opposite camp described the move signals the death of the "One Country, Two Systems" is certified.

The fact that the Article has such a low reception among the general public here in Hong Kong does not come without ground. China is notorious with her record of infringement on human rights on her citizens. The national security law is a swiss knife on clamping the opposition against the CCP's ruling. Despite of the title of national security but the law per se is mainly for the sake of the fortification of the CCP's governance. The extension of the China's National Security Law(NSL), be it through the establishment of the Article 23 or the introduction of the HK version of NSL, brings only the same outcome that the level of the Hongkongers' human rights will significantly be clamped.

While the public was shocked when the news was aired during the morning news report, the Hong Kong bourse responded with a more than 1300 points all way down blunt plummet throughout the last trading day of the week. The market expressed its most explicit view and the preliminary general view from the stock market commentators were conservative. Most of them hold the view that there will likely be a testing of further south. They are most likely correct because the HSI has leveled off in the past one and a half month while the Bollinger Bands width has reduced to the 1000 points range in the last two weeks, a typical signal that breakthrough is around the corner.

While the stock market is more about the money game rather than the business field, there are also views that the NSL will drive away the foreign investments in Hong Kong as a result of the worry of the deterioration of the One Country, Two Systems which in the worst scenario will render the island becomes just among one of China's thousand common cities. While the impact of the NSL on the future living of the majority of the islanders is out of question, the business world, especially international players, might hold a different view though. For businesses, especially foreign investors, the key concern has always been whether there is business opportunity to make money when deciding where to invest. The well-being of the local people is the least consideration, deep inside their mind.

When the HK version of NSL is in force, the protestors vs police confrontation will become history. All sorts of the opposing voice, view, action against China and the puppet HKSAR government will be harmonized under force. Offenders will be arrested and prosecuted under the NSL immediately to keep all these unwanted phenomenons at bay. Not a nice place to live but it is definitely a more stable environment for conducting businesses as long as the judiciary especially regarding the commercial part remains relatively independent. After all, given that the present situation on human rights in China is much worse than that in Hong Kong now but there are already many foreign investments in China so even if one day the human rights in Hong Kong becomes the same as that in China, it does not really bother foreign investors as long as the capitalism part of the One Country, Two System still survives.

Despite of the high profile comments from the western countries, it is most likely that China is set in stone to proceed the HK version NSL anyway. In fact, the opposing comments from the West in most cases just turned out to be a disservice of their original intent as the CCP has a tradition to defend their ego just to do against what they are criticized by their western counterpart. The more the West criticizes on the HK version NSL the stronger China's determination and sooner the implementation will be. Waiting ahead for the Hong Kong people is a monotone, be harmonized, steady society. People no longer have to worry about the police's tear gas nor the protestors' road blockages. Businesses can go as usual again.

Is that a silver lining of the HK version NSL?