Correction or crash? (2)

In early October of 2018 when the HSI saw a 7100 points plunge from its historic peak of 33484 I wrote a post with the same title Correction or crash? as this one putting forward the idea that the HSI was at a critical moment. Luckily at the end of the same month, after further falling of 2000 points, the HSI found its support and saw a rally in the following six months up to the April in 2019. Therefore the plunge was proven to be a correction only. However unfortunately the peak of this rally is still lower than the historic peak. What's more, the subsequent trend in the prior eleven months from now has developed a descending channel. Today the HSI is again at another critical moment when it fell below the valley in the end October in 2018. Not only it has broken a support level of 24000 which was formed after two testings in October of 2018 and August of 2019, today's falling below of this supportive level could signal the descending channel  that formed eleven months ago is very likely to continue.

Apart from the established downward corridor, the HSI also fell below the neckline of the head and shoulders formation formed from last October to this March. The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns.

The diving below supportive line, the established descending channel and the falling below of the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern all posted a southward trend to the HSI. These technical analysis revealed a pessimistic future of the HSI from a rather short time horizon though. When we take a look of the past 15 years chart. Thing is even more daunting.

By referring to my first post with the same title as mentioned earlier, you know what I am talking about. If the valley in 2009 is seen as the departure of wave 1 and the historic peak is the top of the wave 5 then this dip is lower than the previous one in 2019 which could mean this dip is indeed the wave C on the go.

I recap the last paragraph in my previous post as below.

However, if base on my view that the two debt crisis are big correction only then the departure point should be the valley after the suspension of HK stock through train followed by Lehman Brothers at 11345 in 2009 when QE began. Therefore the total hike is 22,139 points. With usual 80% adjustment it means a fall of 17,700 points so the valley of this crash, if really it is one, will be around 15700 level!
Hold tight, man!