Novel coronavirus mass screening test

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There is a heated debate recently in this little island and it even has the HKSAR chief executive, Carrie Lam, involved into it. She accused the ones whom object the mass screening test on the novel coronavirus have hidden agenda and trying to damage the relationship between the China central government and Hong Kong. Naturally only the persons who do that know whether the accusation is valid but it is not of my concern about it. What I care is whether such mass screening test can do its intended job thus whether the Hong Kong citizens should take part into it and bear the risks associated. A typical benefit vs cost analysis apart from political consideration.

The details of the screening test exercise is yet released by the government but according to the heads up, about 100 sampling spots will be set up in all 18 districts throughout Hong Kong. These sampling spots are mostly community facilities and manned with 3000+ personnel for the samples taking. The participation on the test is voluntary based with online booking for testing. Sampling is swabbing both in nose and at throat.

The controversy lies mostly this is a voluntary exercise meaning it is just all up to each citizen's decision whether to be tested or not. This is just contrary to the intended purpose of the exercise which is expected to break the community infection by detecting and screening out those asymptomatic carriers whom spread the virus unknowingly putting the infection never ends.

First of all, when this is not a compulsory testing then it literally fails to achieve its goal especially when the participation is low. Medical experts said it must has at least 5 millions people take part the exercise then it is meaningful. I am not sure how this figure is arrived at but personally I think when the purpose is to find out those asymptomatic carriers to stop their spreading to the community then even if a handful of them are missed out if they are not tested then the whole exercise just goes in vain.

Secondly when the exercise is voluntary then people can roughly estimate how likely of  those asymptomatic carriers are motivated to be tested when most of them think they are in good condition. Common sense tells us that the most motivated participants are those work or live in high risk premises or those whom already have mild symptoms yet not verified. Naturally it is good to screen this segment of people but this is just not enough especially it is those asymptomatic carriers whom pose the major threat of the unidentified source of infection. In reality even if there is only one such carrier living in the community then the infection will just never end and most of all, most likely it will be untraceable due to unidentified source.

Furthermore the exercise can at large be seen as a snapshot of the status when the individual is being tested when people remains mobile after the testing. They could be healthy at the moment of testing but be infected in the following day. As long as people can move around after the testing then they are under the risk of being infected at any time. That renders the exercise can act only as a snapshot rather than an effective screening.


A meaningful screening works only when it is 100% compulsory and combined with strict stay home order during the entire period of testing campaign. Apparently this exercise will only become a PR show that promotes how the China central government cares Hong Kong people and how generous it is to financially sponsor the campaign.

While as a whole the exercise is bound to be a failure to its intended purpose yet it is not totally useless for individuals at least a snapshot at the moment of testing is achievable. Having said, it does not come without drawbacks. Naturally the biggest concern is the gathering at the sampling venue where risk is quite high because as explained previously that those show up at the venue are most likely whom having high risk. In fact ironically the more successful of the campaign is then high numbers of more high risk participants will be drawn to the sampling venues. This is also in contrary to the government's appeal on the social distancing. The exercise could do more bad than good indeed.

On the other hand, the qualification and experience of these 3000 personnel are at question. The government once said even the medical students will also be recruited. The process of the sampling in the nose poses certain risk which can bring injury if conducted by inexperienced personnel. The exercise will be rolled out starting from September 1 when is a few days later. It is a reasonable worry that whether those medical students are adequately trained by then.

Anyway without the prejudice on political stance, it is all up to each individual's evaluation on their own benefit and risk on the decision. Good luck!

Probably the greatest discovery ever

I have to admit that I have not been a fan of mathematics since my school days. The scores on this subject were low and sometimes fell below the pass grade. I particularly had problem with the abstract calculation on advanced mathematics like algebra and calculus which after tons of brain work yet the answers are still x, y or z which fails to correlate nothing in the real world. Having said that, it does not mean I do not like mathematics though. What I need is to relate the calculation with somethings, better be tangible, that I know after hardworking then I shall get the answers that can be visualized.

I forgot the name of the man whom once said investing does not need a great mathematician. Anyone with basic understanding of simple addition, subtraction and a little multiplication will do well. I do agree with such saying because a Maths idiot like me have never come across any problem in the calculation of my investments. Unless for those who work in the Quant Investing or Algo Trading need advanced mathematical knowledge as well as programming skills, common folks with basic understanding on Maths do not need to be shied away from investing.

Having said, an extra knowledge on top of the basic mathematical calculation does help on a better informed investing decision. This knowledge is not rocket science though. Actually many of us have learned it in our college studying because Statistics is the backbone of many sciences so all graduates must have studied it no matter what subject they are major in. Despite I did have some difficult time during my study in Statistics but I did find that it is interesting because most of the issues that Stat is trying to solve are not abstract idea. In fact many terms that we come across daily are the result of statistics like average minimum wage, households income, queuing time, life expectancy...etc. They are all intimate to our daily life but not just x, y or z.

Among all knowledge within statistics, I think the concept of Probability is the most valuable piece of discovery that mankind has made ever, at least to all investors. In English, probability is about the chance of the happening or not happening in percentage or in decimal point. This is the reason I said Probability is the greatest discovery ever. In most cases, all things on earth will end up to the fact at the extreme polarity of probability of 0 or 1 where in between lies a range of ambiguity and this is the fun part of the world, ie., how likely the result will be. Excuse me for a juicy analogy that someone once said the sexiest woman is not a nude but the one with partially revealing.

In investing world, probability also plays a very important role. We all want to know what direction the Dollar is going to go say by the end of this year, the result is very simple either goes up or down but how likely it is up vs down? This is a billion dollars question and it is all about probability. Likewise, what the chance is that a particular company's debt will be defaulted is of most concern of its bond investors. For option traders, it has nothing more important than the probability of their positions will go into ITM or stay OTM no matter they are Longs or Shorts at the settlement day.

In my previous posts I wrote quite a lot relating to the importance of probability to trading is-a trade-worthwhile and the series of index-option-trading-with-statistic5. I found that probability is really the essence of the option trading because at the end of the day what a option trader cares about is whether s/he can be benefited by her/his premium received from the credit trades or by the trade profit of the long position. Unlike something on earth that probability is somewhat difficult to be determined, luckily how likely a particular strike will go ITM or OTM is rather somehow predictable so making a option trade decision is a lot more logical and reasoned. For example, based on the past settlement data, by shorting a position at a strike which is with 0.1 probability of going ITM will most likely let the trader be exposed at only 10% risk which is quite safe in the normal market situation. Naturally the risk level is completely at the trader's discretion according to his/her risk appetite but the key point is by knowing the probability it allows a trader to pick a strike under an informed decision.

As a option trader, I would say probability is probably the greatest discovery ever!

A world of two worlds

Apart from the novel coronavirus pandemic, the most popular talking point around the world now must be the conflict between the U.S. and China. With the U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo's recent speech in July at Nixon Library, a symbolic place for the memory of Richard Nixon whom started a historical relationship with China, that he explicitly declared that such a relationship was proven to be a failure. A failure which Nixon, or the U.S. be more specifically, wanted to have China to be transformed into a member of the world that shares the western value through the economic integration with the West.

At such a symbolic place that carries significant meaning between the two countries, Pompeo's such speech was no difference from a declaration that now the U.S. not only no longer sees China as a working partner but perceives the latter as a rivalry, if not enemy yet. Despite everybody knows, when the U.S. started the trade war with China back two years ago, that the honey moon between the two nations has long finished. Yet, people might still thought that Uncle Sam was just not happy with the teen rebellion behaviour that his growing up little brother is showing. Some guessed that the U.S. might just wanted to teach China a lesson to behave but did not mean business. Now they realize that all those things were just a prelude. A prelude of a full range of combating including economic, technical, diplomatic, financial and perhaps even military actions despite China is not yet fully well prepared for that at this moment.

Some commentators termed the theme of the relationship between the two nations has transformed from decoupling to disconnection. Decoupling is just about the cessation on cooperation on some aspects while disconnection means a clear cut on all relationships. The undertone is the preparation on a true war at the end of the day. Apparently even though China is eagerly to challenge the world order that was established by the U.S. after the WWII but she is not up yet for a true war with the U.S. and that is why the China ambassador in the U.S., Cui TianKai, was trying to tone down the tension between the two nations saying "both nations have to work harder to overcome the current difficulties, to try to dispel suspicion, doubts or even fear," he said. "We have to build a constructive and mutually beneficial relationship for the future." amid the U.S.'s  continuous breakage on such relationship in all ways like the force-closure of the Houston China Embassy, force-selling on the Chinese origin social media app Tik-Tok...etc which are quite humiliating and aggressive toward the Communist regime.

Perhaps this is the moment the top boss in Beijing regrets the too high profile announcement on the advocacy of the Belt and Road as well as the Rise of Big Nation back a few years ago. Such move awakened the U.S.'s suspicion on China's ambition to challenge the world order established by the former whom will not let it happen by at all means even if resorting to a true war. When people sees the conflict is the fight on the interests between the two nations but indeed it is much more than that.

What the two nations is wrestling on is about the say of the world order. The order that dominates how the world should go and how the global interests should be allocated among nations. Because there is so much in stake, indeed it is not just the confrontation between the U.S. and China. Under the existing world order the beneficiaries are not only limited to the U.S. but its "ally nations" or strictly speaking the countries that can share the benefits under the pecking order in the existing world order. These countries are mainly the western developed countries and a few Asian countries like Japan and South Korea under the U.S. umbrella. It is this common interests that brings them together and formed alliances against any challenger to the existing world order. The typical example of these alliances is the Five Eyes which was originally meant to share intelligence but more and more it is going to be a form of power to strike any prospective challenger to the existing world order. This is the reason why the Japan is going to join the Five Eyes apart from the Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and of course the U.S.

It could be this kind of coalition map that China softens it tone as much as it can, despite of amid the current humiliation which is not lighter than the invasion of the Eight Nations Alliance in the late Qing Dynasty back in 1900. China knows that once there will be a war, she is not going to fight with the U.S. only but all these beneficiary nations under the existing world order. China also realizes that despite she looks strong in economic aspect comparing to its western counterparts but she is no match at all in all round strength especially in the aspect of military power. Therefore China can't help but just swallow these humiliations to buy time to better prepare herself for this war.

While in her preparation within her own soil, China is going to form the coalition of her own to counter the western alliance as well. Naturally those die-hard U.S. opponents like the Russia and North Korea are best candidates. On the other hand, there are not shortage of opportunistic countries who will take side when the bait is large enough. China is doing this well to provide financial aids to these countries which are mostly those third world ones.

Prior to the War and when the full disconnection is in place, the existing global trading could largely be compromised. Most world cooperation organizations will be split. People interaction between the rivalries is prohibited. Things happened in the Cold War in the 60-70s' might resurge. The whole world will be divided into two blocs. By then, the world will enter into the stage of a world of two worlds.

Alien and its egg

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I am not sure whether the sci-fi movie The Fly produced in 1986 was the ever first movie of its kind about genetic engineering(GE). Be it true or not, the plot of this movie was an very advanced concept at the time. The story was about a human who was accidentally "fused" with a fly during an experiment so a creature with genes of both species emerged. It was an horror movie because the hybrid became a monster finally and was terminated by its human counterpart. The production seems to be against creating hybrid via the technology of GE juding from the story. I am not a scientist so only have limited knowledge about GE. Just like most of the technologies, there are pros and cons depending on its application and most of all, the people's mind behind who are developing and making use of these technologies as well as their objectives. Basically I am alright on GE as long as the technology does not change the nature of a species fundamentally but just fine-tuning its characteristic towards an improvement or eliminating some inherited flaws.

The Fly was produced in 1986 and coincidentally a political hybrid alien was also created around that time. It was the Sino-British Joint Declaration signed 1984. The Declaration was meant to resolve the reunion of Hong Kong with China after 1997 when the lease of New Territory, a part of Hong Kong,  would be expired. Apart from many technical issues, the reunion was based on the idea of so-called One Country, Two Systems which was in hope to keep Hong Kong's status quo as well as way of living unchanged after the reunion by marrying the China's socialism and the western world's capitalism as much possible as it can be resting the hope (wish?) in 50 years time the Two Systems will eventually integrated into one as seamless as possible.

The One Country, Two Systems (Idea) was once commented as an ever creative and bold master piece designed by the CCP's greatest reform pioneer Deng XiaoPing. It was true that based on the comparatively rigid and stubborn era in the CCP's history, the Idea was really creative because capitalism was viewed something toxic and even a target of striking by some veteran comrades. Allowing its existence in its own soil is really a bold idea. Deng was commented as a pragmatic person well-known with his slogan "Be it white or black, it is a good cat as long as it catches rats" so Deng's Idea was a compromise between the idealism and reality that China was very much behind of the western world including Hong Kong in all aspects so making use of this advance island to modernize the Mainland was something the lesser "evil" by allowing this once stepped son remained as much possible unchanged as the CCP could tolerate.

Despite the Idea allows the lap of 50 years to gradually bringing the once stepped son back on board with the big family but things, especially in the recent years, do not go well. Indeed it is a disaster that Hong Kong is not only not getting closer than it was to its motherland but vice versa. After all, the Idea is meant to convert Hong Kong, in baby steps by buying time, into socialism. Keeping the capitalism nature in Hong Kong was something a compromise but when China is getting more and more fully-fledged and the reliance on the island for its modernization becomes less indispensable, the Idea became less and less unshakable especially when China is imposing more and more "guidance, direction, monitoring" over Hong Kong's internal affairs.

Some people seem to be awakened and is aware of just in recent years about China's changes on the relationship with Hong Kong. They might be puzzled about the changes and some attribute it to the social movement in the past few years. They are partly right because Beijing is getting more and more annoyed with those social movement but frankly speaking the relationship is bounded to be changed even if without these social movement. People should not forget that allowing the capitalism element was only a temporary compromise based on a pragmatic need at that time. Exercising socialism in Hong Kong is CCP's ultimate goal when the island's role on assisting China's modernization is eventually finished but this step will not happen overnight in June 30 in 2047. Marrying the two systems and finally converting them into one takes time and the only way is while increasing the socialism element at one hand then decreasing that of the capitalism at the same time. we are just almost in the mid way of this process. It is like genetically engineering the capitalism gene with the socialism gene into one creature, or an alien if you like, into Hong Kong in this moment.

While the alien is getting into its shape now it also laid an egg as well. It is the Hong Kong version of National Security Law(NSL). The Law is termed as the alien's egg because it further hybrids the two incompatible law practices, ie., the Common Law and the Continental Law, into this Law. The NSL is at large based on the concept of Continental Law but it is meant to be implemented in Hong Kong where Common Law is exercised. Most of the legal practitioners in Hong Kong, especially barristers are confused how they can defend their clients in the courts or how to advise their clients to avoid violation on the NSL which mainly laid out the principles but not the specific actions of crime as put in the Common Law. The NSL egg is exact the example of the artificial genetic engineering of the hybridization the Two Systems.

God bless Hong Kong!

Declaration

In light of the enactment of the Hong Kong version of China National Security Law since yesterday and the content was disclosed since then, the below declaration is essential particularly in response to the Article 29 (5) of the Law.

DECLARATION

1. As stated in my first post, this blog is solely a record of my thoughts. While the Blogger cannot stop visitors, no invitation of viewing has ever been made to whosoever.

2. The Blogger has no knowledge of psychology so cannot anticipate any viewer's emotional development including but not limited to hatred after reading this blog.

3. This blog's content may or may not contain comments on HKSAR government and/or China government, any person, residing in the HKSAR, who might develop emotional development including but not limited to hatred towards these two Governments should STOP reading NOW and never visit this blog again.

4. While every effort has been made to avoid emotional development including but not limited to hatred towards the HKSAR government and/or China government, the Blogger assumes no responsibility should any viewer residing in the HKSAR keeps reading this blog thus leading to their emotional development, including but not limited to hatred, and their subsequent actions.

An historical day

Today is the last day of this June and this is also the end of the first half of 2020 which is an extraordinary year in the sense of globally as well as locally here in Hong Kong. The novel coronavirus pandemic is truly remarkable globally. A tiny creature has turned the human world upside down yet it is still ongoing and its impact is yet fully emerged.

Locally the Hong Kong version of China National Security Law(NSL) is finally passed in today's the People Congress meeting despite of the strong opposing opinion from the West and it is expected to be enacted in tomorrow, July 1, the day of reunion of Hong Kong to China 23 years ago. This should be an important event in Hong Kong but surprisingly it seems not receiving the relevant level of concern from the majority of the people here in Hong Kong except those figure heads of the pro-establishment and opposition political camps. It is surprisingly but indeed not surprisingly because the public know that the NSL is going to be passed and be enacted for sure no matter what criticism or sanction from the West, mainly the U.S., has put forward. There is an interesting analogy here saying that one just cannot help when the rain is going to fall as well as mama is going to marry someone else meaning when the CCP is determined and committed on the NSL, there is literally nothing the islanders can do on it. The power between the two are just so unproportional that people here in Hong Kong can do nothing other than being indifferent on such an important law that is going to affect their life significantly.

The HK version of NSL is so important to Hong Kong that some commentators even called this Law turns Hong Kong into the chapter of re-reunion with China meaning the enactment signifies the Central Government is going to modify its governance over Hong Kong in light of the failure of the implementation of the so-called One Country, Two Systems here in Hong Kong in the past 23 years. It is widely believed that the Law is going to be effective in clamping all sorts of opposing voices and actions which were considered as legitimate in the past. The grapevine says the penalty is ranging from 3 years of imprisonment to life sentence so it should be effective to mute Hong Kong. It is going to be an quite different Hong Kong starting from tomorrow.

The NSL is not only a local issue but it also receives much attention internationally. Almost the whole western democratic camp opposes it yet China stands firm on the legislation. Apparently China is more and more confident on her advocacy as and when she is becoming more and more fully fledged. Despite knowing the whole western world is opposing yet she is bold enough to insist on the legislation, the action is more meaningful than the Law per se. It is announcing to the world that China can say no.

When in today China is publicly announcing she can say no to the world, she also publicly posts her stance that she dares to challenge the world order that has been established by the U.S. since the WWII. Simply being the second largest economy just cannot fulfill China's appetite. When she sees the whole world is struggling with the pandemic on lockdown or reopen, mask or no mask but she can manage to contain it within a province. China just can't help but thinks she can lead the world better. Ambition rises along with self content.

The rise of a big nation!

Politics is cruel?

I wrote blogs occasionally but more often I read posts of other bloggers as well. One of the bloggers recently said politics is cruel because this generation of youth in Hong Kong is going to be deleted meaning they will not be given opportunity in career because employers are worry on their political stance. This whole generation of youth will end up to be victims resulting from the recent political social events no matter the ones who have really engaged or just onlookers. Employers will just play safe to avoid hiring youth in this age group. The recent social events are no doubt political and it is the whole generation of youth who is going to pay the price. This is why the blogger said politics is cruel.

His reasoning might be controversial but his view is out of question. In fact my opinion is that politics is not just cruel but even unforgiving. To explore the topic, a better understanding on what politics is perhaps can help. Wikipedia puts it as the set of activities that are associated with making decisions in groups, or other forms of power relations between individuals, such as the distribution of resources. The Oxford Dictionary says it is the activities involved in getting and using power in public life, and being able to influence decisions that affect a country or a society. I am not knowledgeable enough to argue on these definitions but personally I think they are just too textbook type of things though. A street smart view is that whenever there are three persons or more then there is politics. My own interpretation is very straight forward that politics is the way of parceling out interests among powers within an assembly of people. No academic jargon.

In fact politics ranges from small scale between couples to social circle and office politics, as well as large scale in societal, national and global so perhaps it did not happen only when Robinson was stranded in an island of nowhere. Unlike the politics between couples that it is more about the dominance of the family issues and/or sexual life but rather than financial, the one I talk about is on the societal or national, if not in global level. Politics at such level is about large scale, enormous interests. Very often it is also not only about the benefit of one or a few but a bunch of people/nations who form a beneficiary group. When the interests is large enough then it naturally attracts different groups who are also in pursuit of it thus fierce competition is inevitable. Politics at this level is all about conspiracies, deception, coercion, lure, alliance, alienation ... all sorts of dirty tricks to defeat, if not eliminate, the rivals as the ultimate goal. Therefore it is just too gentle to describe politics is cruel but in fact it is unforgiving and about life or death without any mercy. 

Politics is unforgiving in nature due to the underlying fundamental that it is about parceling out interests among powers while greed is the most deep seated nature of human being. Despite of thousands of years of civilization, mankind is still under the control of the greed on the pursuit of power, wealth and fame. Politics is the way to consolidate self's power and undermining that of the rival, while power is the means to acquire wealth and wealthy people want their names marked in the history. Nevertheless wealth is the center piece of the whole pursuit. Without the prize of wealth, power is tasteless. Any comrade in our dear communist party knows about this and that is why all anti-corruption movements either ended up in failures or just turned out to be the tool of the internal power struggle which in turn became the politics in combating for the say to allocate the control of the state-run enterprises thus the source of the enormous interests considering the huge revenue of these Enterprises.

Politics among nations, especially between the alpha and its challenger, is also ferocious. The combat between the U.S. and China is a good example that no more elaboration is needed. All things like trade war, Huawei 5G equipment spying conspiracy, ban on the export of the U.S. technologies to China, allegation on the pandemic, Hong Kong policy act, argument on the HK version national security law etc are just excuses. The U.S. "suddenly" woke up and realized that if they do not eradicate the CCP regime from the earth, their existing dominance over the global affairs thus its privilege on parceling out the global interests will soon be lost. An all-round attack was thus launched since two years ago. Naturally being committed as a challenger, the CCP was aware of the story board in day one when she had the intent to take down her uncle Sam. China bought time by engaging with the U.S. on rounds after rounds of negotiation in the past two years, today she is well prepared for the counter-fighting. China is now up and ready for a full contact combat with the U.S. for global dominance. This is true politics in play and the battle is about the life and death of being a world leader thus the say on the global interests. A "good show" is coming soon.

Politics is always about survival. Winner takes most, if not all. The prize is so big so mercy is never an option. For people who decide to take part into it, this is something they must be aware of in the first place. There was a joke happened on the HKSAR ex-chief executive, Donald Tsang, who once claimed his occupation is politician. Apparently he does not know the underlying nature of politics so mistakenly thought a government administrator is politician. However, he ended up to be imprisoned as a victim of the political game beyond his terrain.